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Giorgio Cafiero
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, DC and a strategic partner of R&R. He is also an Adjunct Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, and an Adjunct Fellow at the American Security Project. His research interests include geopolitical and security trends in the Arabian Peninsula and the broader Middle East.
Mr. Cafiero is a frequent contributor to Al Jazeera, Gulf International Forum, The New Arab, Responsible Statecraft, Stimson Center, and Amwaj.Media. Mr. Cafiero has taken part in dozens of closed-door meetings with high-ranking government officials, ambassadors, and other diplomats in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Throughout Mr. Cafiero’s career he has consulted many public and private sector entities, briefed diplomats of various countries on Gulf affairs, and worked as a subject matter expert for multinational law firms. Mr. Cafiero holds an M.A. in International Relations from the University of San Diego.
Recent Publications
Assessing Conflict Dynamics in the Middle East
Unfreezing of the Syrian Civil War: View from the Gulf
Unfreezing of the Syrian Civil War: View from the Gulf
by Giorgio Cafiero
5 December 2024
Unfreezing of the Syrian Civil War: View from the Gulf
Unfreezing of the Syrian Civil War: View from the Gulf
Unfreezing of the Syrian Civil War: View from the Gulf
by Gulf State Analytics
3 December 2024
February-November 2024
GCC Perspectives the US Presidential Election
Assessing the Gaza War and its Expansion into Lebanon and the West Bank
GCC Perspectives on Israel, Iran and Lebanon Hostilities
by Gulf State Analytics
1 November 2024
GCC Perspectives on Israel, Iran and Lebanon Hostilities
Assessing the Gaza War and its Expansion into Lebanon and the West Bank
GCC Perspectives on Israel, Iran and Lebanon Hostilities
by Gulf State Analytics
3 October 2024
Assessing the Gaza War and its Expansion into Lebanon and the West Bank
Assessing the Gaza War and its Expansion into Lebanon and the West Bank
Assessing the Gaza War and its Expansion into Lebanon and the West Bank
by Giorgio Cafiero
24 September 2024
Would Gulf Arab States Support ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ if Trump Wins?
Would Gulf Arab States Support ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ if Trump Wins?
Assessing the Gaza War and its Expansion into Lebanon and the West Bank
by Gulf State Analytics
3 September 2024
An Unprecedented Terrorist Attack in Oman
Would Gulf Arab States Support ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ if Trump Wins?
The UAE’s Pragmatic Engagement with the Taliban
by Gulf State Analytics
6 August 2024
The UAE’s Pragmatic Engagement with the Taliban
Would Gulf Arab States Support ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ if Trump Wins?
The UAE’s Pragmatic Engagement with the Taliban
by Gulf State Analytics
2 July 2024
Iran’s Transition to the Post-Raisi Period Likely Means Continuation of Hardline Rule
Iran’s Transition to the Post-Raisi Period Likely Means Continuation of Hardline Rule
Iran’s Transition to the Post-Raisi Period Likely Means Continuation of Hardline Rule
by Giorgio Cafiero
4 June 2024
The Middle East’s Conflict Dynamics Represent Opportunities and Challenges for China
Iran’s Transition to the Post-Raisi Period Likely Means Continuation of Hardline Rule
Iran’s Transition to the Post-Raisi Period Likely Means Continuation of Hardline Rule
by Gulf State Analytics
2 May 2024
Saudi Arabia’s Navigation of the Gaza War
Iran’s Transition to the Post-Raisi Period Likely Means Continuation of Hardline Rule
Global Pariah or Not? Iran’s Position in the Middle East and Beyond
by Gulf State Analytics
4 April 2024
Global Pariah or Not? Iran’s Position in the Middle East and Beyond
Global Pariah or Not? Iran’s Position in the Middle East and Beyond
Global Pariah or Not? Iran’s Position in the Middle East and Beyond
by Giorgio Cafiero
26 March 2024
GCC States Avoid Backlash from Houthi Maritime Attacks
Global Pariah or Not? Iran’s Position in the Middle East and Beyond
Mounting Iran-Pakistan Tensions and Their Implications for GCC
By Gulf State Analytics
5 March 2024
Mounting Iran-Pakistan Tensions and Their Implications for GCC
Global Pariah or Not? Iran’s Position in the Middle East and Beyond
Mounting Iran-Pakistan Tensions and Their Implications for GCC
By Gulf State Analytics
7 February 2024
May 2023 - January 2024
The Risk of Regionalisation and Internationalisation of Gaza’s War in 2024
The Risk of Regionalisation and Internationalisation of Gaza’s War in 2024
The Risk of Regionalisation and Internationalisation of Gaza’s War in 2024
by Giorgio Cafiero
30 January 2024
Kuwait’s New Leader
The Risk of Regionalisation and Internationalisation of Gaza’s War in 2024
The Risk of Regionalisation and Internationalisation of Gaza’s War in 2024
By Gulf State Analytics
16 January 2024
Gaza Crisis: Regional and International Dimensions
The Risk of Regionalisation and Internationalisation of Gaza’s War in 2024
Gaza Crisis: Regional and International Dimensions
by Giorgio Cafiero
4 January 2023
Carnage in Gaza and interests of Gulf Arab states
The Escalating Israel-Palestine Crisis Tests Gulf States
Gaza Crisis: Regional and International Dimensions
By Gulf State Analytics
5 December 2023
The Escalating Israel-Palestine Crisis Tests Gulf States
The Escalating Israel-Palestine Crisis Tests Gulf States
The Escalating Israel-Palestine Crisis Tests Gulf States
By Gulf State Analytics
7 November 2023
The BRICS Expansion and Its Impact On The GCC
The Escalating Israel-Palestine Crisis Tests Gulf States
The Escalating Israel-Palestine Crisis Tests Gulf States
By Gulf State Analytics
3 October 2023
The Coup Epidemic in the Sahel and West Africa
The Future of Energy Diplomacy Between Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
The Coup Epidemic in the Sahel and West Africa
by Giorgio Cafiero
26 September 2023
The Qatari Bridge Between the U.S. and Iran
The Future of Energy Diplomacy Between Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
The Coup Epidemic in the Sahel and West Africa
by Gulf State Analytics
6 September 2023
The Future of Energy Diplomacy Between Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
The Future of Energy Diplomacy Between Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
The Future of Energy Diplomacy Between Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
by Gulf State Analytics
8 August 2023
Main Outcomes of Mohammed bin Salman’s Latest Visit to Paris
Assad’s Visit to Jeddah Marks The Return Of Syria To The Arab League
The Future of Energy Diplomacy Between Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
by Gulf State Analytics
5 July 2023
Assad’s Visit to Jeddah Marks The Return Of Syria To The Arab League
Assad’s Visit to Jeddah Marks The Return Of Syria To The Arab League
Assad’s Visit to Jeddah Marks The Return Of Syria To The Arab League
by Gulf State Analytics
2 June 2023
Major Changes in Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy
Assad’s Visit to Jeddah Marks The Return Of Syria To The Arab League
Assad’s Visit to Jeddah Marks The Return Of Syria To The Arab League
by Gulf State Analytics
10 May 2023
August - April 2023
The Saudi-Iranian Diplomatic Deal and Intra-GCC Relations
Iran and Saudi Arabia Keep Channels of Communications Open In Spite of Stalled Relations
The Saudi-Iranian Diplomatic Deal and Intra-GCC Relations
by Gulf State Analytics
6 April 2023
Syria’s Post-Earthquake Diplomatic Standing In The Gulf
Iran and Saudi Arabia Keep Channels of Communications Open In Spite of Stalled Relations
The Saudi-Iranian Diplomatic Deal and Intra-GCC Relations
by Gulf State Analytics
2 March 2023
Iran and Saudi Arabia Keep Channels of Communications Open In Spite of Stalled Relations
Iran and Saudi Arabia Keep Channels of Communications Open In Spite of Stalled Relations
Iran and Saudi Arabia Keep Channels of Communications Open In Spite of Stalled Relations
by Gulf State Analytics
15 February 2023
The Growth of Sino-Saudi Relations in a More Multipolar World
The Ukraine War Requires Israel to Strike a Challenging Balance
Iran and Saudi Arabia Keep Channels of Communications Open In Spite of Stalled Relations
by Giorgio Cafiero
8 February 2022
The World Cup And A Rising Gulf
The Ukraine War Requires Israel to Strike a Challenging Balance
The Ukraine War Requires Israel to Strike a Challenging Balance
by Gulf State Analytics
11 January 2023
The Ukraine War Requires Israel to Strike a Challenging Balance
The Ukraine War Requires Israel to Strike a Challenging Balance
The Ukraine War Requires Israel to Strike a Challenging Balance
by Giorgio Cafiero
22 December 2022
Iran Feels Domestic Protests Are Fomented By Foreign Media Outlets
U.S. - Saudi Relations At A Low Point Following OPEC+ Decisions On Oil Production
U.S. - Saudi Relations At A Low Point Following OPEC+ Decisions On Oil Production
by Gulf State Analytics
9 December 2022
U.S. - Saudi Relations At A Low Point Following OPEC+ Decisions On Oil Production
U.S. - Saudi Relations At A Low Point Following OPEC+ Decisions On Oil Production
U.S. - Saudi Relations At A Low Point Following OPEC+ Decisions On Oil Production
by Gulf State Analytics
10 November 2022
Balancing Economic Promotion and Cultural Challenges in the GCC
U.S. - Saudi Relations At A Low Point Following OPEC+ Decisions On Oil Production
Balancing Economic Promotion and Cultural Challenges in the GCC
by Gulf State Analytics
6 October 2022
Saudi Arabia’s Re-Gains Centre Stage in a More Multipolar World
Economic Saudi-Israeli Relations Are Headed Towards Normalization
Balancing Economic Promotion and Cultural Challenges in the GCC
by Giorgio Cafiero
29 September 2022
Qatar Prepares for a Historic World Cup
Economic Saudi-Israeli Relations Are Headed Towards Normalization
Economic Saudi-Israeli Relations Are Headed Towards Normalization
by Gulf State Analytics
2 September 2022
Economic Saudi-Israeli Relations Are Headed Towards Normalization
Economic Saudi-Israeli Relations Are Headed Towards Normalization
Economic Saudi-Israeli Relations Are Headed Towards Normalization
by Gulf State Analytics
3 August 2022
MAY 2019 - july 2022
Bold and Intriguing Reforms in Post-Qaboos Oman
Financial Warfare Against Russia: Stakes for Gulf Investors and Funds
Financial Warfare Against Russia: Stakes for Gulf Investors and Funds
by Gulf State Analytics
7 July 2022
Financial Warfare Against Russia: Stakes for Gulf Investors and Funds
Financial Warfare Against Russia: Stakes for Gulf Investors and Funds
Financial Warfare Against Russia: Stakes for Gulf Investors and Funds
by Gulf State Analytics
7 June 2022
Financial Warfare Against Russia: Stakes for Gulf Investors and Funds
Financial Warfare Against Russia: Stakes for Gulf Investors and Funds
Despite the War, Russia Can Still Count on Meaningful Relationships in the Middle East
by Gulf State Analytics
12 May 2022
Despite the War, Russia Can Still Count on Meaningful Relationships in the Middle East
Despite the War, Russia Can Still Count on Meaningful Relationships in the Middle East
Despite the War, Russia Can Still Count on Meaningful Relationships in the Middle East
by Giorgio Cafiero
6 April 2022
Macro Picture: China and Russia Increase Their Grip On The Middle-East:
Despite the War, Russia Can Still Count on Meaningful Relationships in the Middle East
Macro Picture: China and Russia Increase Their Grip On The Middle-East:
by Giorgio Cafiero
21 January 2022
Iran and Saudi Arabia’s Perspectives on Post-US Afghanistan
Despite the War, Russia Can Still Count on Meaningful Relationships in the Middle East
Macro Picture: China and Russia Increase Their Grip On The Middle-East:
by Giorgio Cafiero
29 September 2021
The US and Iran Aim to Restore the JCPOA, but Obstacles Remain
Iran Shows Resilience to Pandemic, Lower Oil Prices and Sanctions as US Elections Approach
Iran Shows Resilience to Pandemic, Lower Oil Prices and Sanctions as US Elections Approach
by Giorgio Cafiero
12 May 2021
Iran Shows Resilience to Pandemic, Lower Oil Prices and Sanctions as US Elections Approach
Iran Shows Resilience to Pandemic, Lower Oil Prices and Sanctions as US Elections Approach
Iran Shows Resilience to Pandemic, Lower Oil Prices and Sanctions as US Elections Approach
By Giorgio Cafiero
17 June 2020
US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead - An Update On The Conflict And Its Implications
Iran Shows Resilience to Pandemic, Lower Oil Prices and Sanctions as US Elections Approach
US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead - An Update On The Conflict And Its Implications
By Nouriel Roubini and Giorgio Cafiero
8 January 2020
Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities
Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, Increasing Risk Of Escalation
US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead - An Update On The Conflict And Its Implications
by Giorgio Cafiero
17 September 2019
Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, Increasing Risk Of Escalation
Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, Increasing Risk Of Escalation
Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, Increasing Risk Of Escalation
by Giorgio Cafiero, Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
14 August 2019
USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations
Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, Increasing Risk Of Escalation
Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, Increasing Risk Of Escalation
by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Giorgio Cafiero
23 May 2019