Rosa & Roubini Associates

118 Pall Mall London SW1Y 5ED | +44(0)207 1010 718

Giorgio Cafiero


Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, DC. His research interests include geopolitical and security trends in the Arabian Peninsula and the broader Middle East. 

Mr. Cafiero is a regular contributor to the Middle East Institute, Al Monitor, LobeLog, Inside Arabia, and New Arab. He frequently appears on Al Jazeera, TRT World, BBC Persian, and other networks as a commentator. Mr. Cafiero has taken part in dozens of closed-door meetings with high-ranking government officials, ambassadors, and other diplomats in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Throughout his career, he has spoken about Persian Gulf-related issues at conferences and delivered lectures on the region in Egypt, Slovenia, and the United States. From 2014-2015, Mr. Cafiero was an analyst at Kroll, an investigative due diligence consultancy. He received an M.A. in International Relations from the University of San Diego. 

Recent Publications

US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead - An Update On The Conflict And Its Implications


By Nouriel Roubini and Giorgio Cafiero

8 January 2020

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities


by Giorgio Cafiero

17 September 2019

Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, Increasing Risk Of Escalation


by Giorgio Cafiero, Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

14 August 2019

USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations


by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Giorgio Cafiero

23 May 2019