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SMART MONEY
Best Economics Book 2024 - Financial Times
“Smart Money: How digital currencies will win the New Cold War - and why the West needs to act now”, the book Brunello Rosa has written with Casey Larsen for Bloomsbury Publishing, is available in all major bookshops since October 24th, 2024. The book was named among the Best Economics Books in 2024 by the Financial Times.
This book discusses the fundamental theme of the “geopolitics of central bank digital currencies” in a non-technical manner, and is aimed at the general public. It does not shy away from discussing their most controversial implications, including the risks to privacy, the stability of the banking system as we know it, or the re-organisation of the global financial architecture around these new instruments.
Go to the book's webpage on brunellorosa.com
PODCAST
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how tech revolutions are set to separate money supply from state control.
6 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the "tech takeover" in the US, which will lead to the Musk (Trump) - Thiel (Vance) presidency.
29 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss Trump's first appointments and likely policies
22 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the likely causes and consequences of Trump’s recent triumph.
15 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the end of the US presidential race and the chaos that may emerge afterword.
5 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the key takeaways from the latest IMF Meetings.
1 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the US political polarisation is hitting the digital asset space.
25 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why China still needs to provide more fiscal and monetary stimulus to avert deflation
21 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the “bipolar” behaviour exhibited by markets in the last few weeks.
11 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the two conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, with no end in sight.
4 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the election in Brandenburg confirmed the AfD’s rise in East Germany
27 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the Harris-Trump TV debate has re-opened the race for the White House.
20 September 2024
News
Best Independent MacroEconomic Research & Advisory Firm-2023
In June 2023, Rosa & Roubini Associates has been recognised for the second consecutive year as the best independent macroeconomic research & advisory firm by Corporate Vision Magazine
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R&R Weekly Column
The Collapse of Assad’s Regime in Syria: Another Domino Falls In the Middle East
The Collapse of Assad’s Regime in Syria: Another Domino Falls In the Middle East
The Collapse of Assad’s Regime in Syria: Another Domino Falls In the Middle East
by Brunello Rosa
9 December 2024
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria, which we predicted in our recent analysis of the conflicts in the Middle East, marks a monumental shift in the political and strategic dynamics of the region. There are many causes behind this regime change, which has been led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group once affiliated to al-Qaeda. Assad’s removal will result in far-reaching consequences for the region.
Starting with the causes: at the heart of the Assad regime’s downfall lies the Syrian civil war’s enduring brutality. Beginning in 2011 – at the time of the so-called “Arab Spring” – the conflict stemmed from widespread protests against authoritarian rule, corruption, and economic stagnation. Over time, the opposition evolved into a fragmented collection of rebel groups, further complicating any resolution. While Assad’s government initially managed to retain power through the cynical use of military force, the support of Russia, and a lack of unified opposition leadership, the prolonged war severely weakened the country’s institutions and economy.
International involvement has played a dual role in both sustaining and undermining Assad’s rule. Russia and Iran have provided critical military and economic support, allowing the regime to push back against opposition forces. Conversely, Western nations, Turkey, and Gulf states have backed various opposition factions. This proxy-war dynamic has prolonged the conflict, while periodic shifts in alliances have kept the regime on an unstable footing.
Adding to this is the critical role of public discontent within Syria. Years of war have devastated infrastructure, displaced millions, and left a once-vibrant middle class impoverished. The erosion of the state’s legitimacy among its own people, including segments of Assad’s Alawite base, has further undermined the rule of the Assad family.
The Collapse of Assad’s Regime in Syria: Another Domino Falls In the Middle East
The Collapse of Assad’s Regime in Syria: Another Domino Falls In the Middle East
A critical factor that has led to the collapse of the regime has been Israel’s recent military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah, a Shia militant group and political party backed by Iran, has been a critical ally to Assad throughout the civil war. Thousands of Hezbollah fighters have fought alongside Syrian government forces, playing a pivotal role in key battles.
Israel, viewing Hezbollah as a primary threat, has carried out numerous strikes in Lebanon and Syria targeting the group’s infrastructure, supply chains, and leadership. Indeed Hezbollah’s leadership was decapitated with the killing of its secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah. While these operations were ostensibly aimed at neutralizing Hezbollah’s growing capabilities, they also strained the resources and focus of both Hezbollah and Iran, indirectly weakening Assad’s position.
The collapse of the Assad regime now risks unleashing a cascade of consequences. Internally, Syria could fragment into rival factions and territories dominated by militias and extremist groups, similar to post-Gaddafi Libya. The power vacuum might embolden terrorist organizations like ISIS to resurge, threatening regional stability.
Regionally, Assad’s fall is likely to further weaken Iran’s strategic foothold in the Levant, disrupting its "Shia Crescent" ambitions as well as its “Axis of Resistance.” This could embolden Gulf states and Israel, potentially escalating sectarian tensions and proxy conflicts. For Russia, the loss of a key ally would mark a blow to its influence in the Middle East.
For the West, Assad’s collapse presents a double-edged sword. While it would signify the end of a brutal dictatorship, managing Syria’s post-Assad chaos would require significant diplomatic and humanitarian resources, a task Western powers have historically struggled with in similar contexts
LATEST RESEARCH
Trump’s Second Ascendancy: Global Reverberations from a Populist-Nationalist Government
by Joshua Bowes
10 December 2024
Preview: ECB To Cut Rates in December by 25bps, With A Hint at a January Cut
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
9 December 2024
Resilience Amidst Sanctions: The Russian Economy’s Wartime Adaptation
by Nato Balavadze
27 November 2024
Unfreezing of the Syrian Civil War: View from the Gulf
by Gulf State Analytics
3 December 2024
Lessons from the Draghi and Letta Reports for the EU's Future
by Nato Balavadze
4 December 2024
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
Week: 9 December - 16 December
The Week Ahead: EZ QoQ GDP To Advance; Unemployment Rate To Stay Unchanged In US And EZ; PMIs To Fall In UK And EZ
In the US, in November, headline inflation rate is likely to increase to 2.7% y-o-y (p: 2.6%), whereas core inflation rate is seen staying unchanged at 3.3% y-o-y.
In the EZ, in October, IP is seen rising to 2.0% y-o-y (p: -2.8%). Among the largest EZ economies, in November, headline inflation rate is expected to: i) increase to 2.2% y-o-y (p: 2.0%) in Germany; and ii) rise to 1.3% y-o-y (p: 1.2%) in France.
CBs to stay dovish. In the EZ, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps.
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead: Rebels Take Over Syria and Force Assad to Flee; South Korea Into Political Crisis
Syrian rebels entered Damascus, forcing Assad to flee the country. The rebels, led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group once affiliated to al-Qaeda have taken control of the capital and are establishing a new rule.
South Korea plunged into chaos after President Yoon’s failed martial law declaration, sparking impeachment efforts, union strikes, and resignations of top officials. Lawmakers overturned his decree in a dramatic overnight standoff. Protesters push MPs to impeach South Korean president as loyalists boycott the vote.