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“Smart Money: How digital currencies will win the New Cold War - and why the West needs to act now”, the book Brunello Rosa has written with Casey Larsen for Bloomsbury Publishing, is available in all major bookshops since October 24th, 2024. The book was named among the Best Economics Books in 2024 by the Financial Times.
This book discusses the fundamental theme of the “geopolitics of central bank digital currencies” in a non-technical manner, and is aimed at the general public. It does not shy away from discussing their most controversial implications, including the risks to privacy, the stability of the banking system as we know it, or the re-organisation of the global financial architecture around these new instruments.
Go to the book's webpage on brunellorosa.com
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how tech revolutions are set to separate money supply from state control.
6 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the "tech takeover" in the US, which will lead to the Musk (Trump) - Thiel (Vance) presidency.
29 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss Trump's first appointments and likely policies
22 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the likely causes and consequences of Trump’s recent triumph.
15 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the end of the US presidential race and the chaos that may emerge afterword.
5 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the key takeaways from the latest IMF Meetings.
1 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the US political polarisation is hitting the digital asset space.
25 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why China still needs to provide more fiscal and monetary stimulus to avert deflation
21 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the “bipolar” behaviour exhibited by markets in the last few weeks.
11 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the two conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, with no end in sight.
4 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the election in Brandenburg confirmed the AfD’s rise in East Germany
27 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the Harris-Trump TV debate has re-opened the race for the White House.
20 September 2024
In June 2023, Rosa & Roubini Associates has been recognised for the second consecutive year as the best independent macroeconomic research & advisory firm by Corporate Vision Magazine
R&R provides independent research on the global economy
R&R provides independent advice on global issues
by Brunello Rosa
9 December 2024
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria, which we predicted in our recent analysis of the conflicts in the Middle East, marks a monumental shift in the political and strategic dynamics of the region. There are many causes behind this regime change, which has been led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group once affiliated to al-Qaeda. Assad’s removal will result in far-reaching consequences for the region.
Starting with the causes: at the heart of the Assad regime’s downfall lies the Syrian civil war’s enduring brutality. Beginning in 2011 – at the time of the so-called “Arab Spring” – the conflict stemmed from widespread protests against authoritarian rule, corruption, and economic stagnation. Over time, the opposition evolved into a fragmented collection of rebel groups, further complicating any resolution. While Assad’s government initially managed to retain power through the cynical use of military force, the support of Russia, and a lack of unified opposition leadership, the prolonged war severely weakened the country’s institutions and economy.
International involvement has played a dual role in both sustaining and undermining Assad’s rule. Russia and Iran have provided critical military and economic support, allowing the regime to push back against opposition forces. Conversely, Western nations, Turkey, and Gulf states have backed various opposition factions. This proxy-war dynamic has prolonged the conflict, while periodic shifts in alliances have kept the regime on an unstable footing.
Adding to this is the critical role of public discontent within Syria. Years of war have devastated infrastructure, displaced millions, and left a once-vibrant middle class impoverished. The erosion of the state’s legitimacy among its own people, including segments of Assad’s Alawite base, has further undermined the rule of the Assad family.
A critical factor that has led to the collapse of the regime has been Israel’s recent military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah, a Shia militant group and political party backed by Iran, has been a critical ally to Assad throughout the civil war. Thousands of Hezbollah fighters have fought alongside Syrian government forces, playing a pivotal role in key battles.
Israel, viewing Hezbollah as a primary threat, has carried out numerous strikes in Lebanon and Syria targeting the group’s infrastructure, supply chains, and leadership. Indeed Hezbollah’s leadership was decapitated with the killing of its secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah. While these operations were ostensibly aimed at neutralizing Hezbollah’s growing capabilities, they also strained the resources and focus of both Hezbollah and Iran, indirectly weakening Assad’s position.
The collapse of the Assad regime now risks unleashing a cascade of consequences. Internally, Syria could fragment into rival factions and territories dominated by militias and extremist groups, similar to post-Gaddafi Libya. The power vacuum might embolden terrorist organizations like ISIS to resurge, threatening regional stability.
Regionally, Assad’s fall is likely to further weaken Iran’s strategic foothold in the Levant, disrupting its "Shia Crescent" ambitions as well as its “Axis of Resistance.” This could embolden Gulf states and Israel, potentially escalating sectarian tensions and proxy conflicts. For Russia, the loss of a key ally would mark a blow to its influence in the Middle East.
For the West, Assad’s collapse presents a double-edged sword. While it would signify the end of a brutal dictatorship, managing Syria’s post-Assad chaos would require significant diplomatic and humanitarian resources, a task Western powers have historically struggled with in similar contexts
Subscribe to receive our free weekly Viewsletter "Making Sense of This World"
by Joshua Bowes
10 December 2024
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
9 December 2024
by Nato Balavadze
27 November 2024
by Gulf State Analytics
3 December 2024
by Nato Balavadze
4 December 2024
Week: 9 December - 16 December
The Week Ahead: EZ QoQ GDP To Advance; Unemployment Rate To Stay Unchanged In US And EZ; PMIs To Fall In UK And EZ
In the US, in November, headline inflation rate is likely to increase to 2.7% y-o-y (p: 2.6%), whereas core inflation rate is seen staying unchanged at 3.3% y-o-y.
In the EZ, in October, IP is seen rising to 2.0% y-o-y (p: -2.8%). Among the largest EZ economies, in November, headline inflation rate is expected to: i) increase to 2.2% y-o-y (p: 2.0%) in Germany; and ii) rise to 1.3% y-o-y (p: 1.2%) in France.
CBs to stay dovish. In the EZ, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps.
The Quarter Ahead: Rebels Take Over Syria and Force Assad to Flee; South Korea Into Political Crisis
Syrian rebels entered Damascus, forcing Assad to flee the country. The rebels, led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group once affiliated to al-Qaeda have taken control of the capital and are establishing a new rule.
South Korea plunged into chaos after President Yoon’s failed martial law declaration, sparking impeachment efforts, union strikes, and resignations of top officials. Lawmakers overturned his decree in a dramatic overnight standoff. Protesters push MPs to impeach South Korean president as loyalists boycott the vote.
Real Economy: EZ QoQ GDP Advanced; Unemployment Rate Rose In US And Was Unchanged EZ; PMIs Fell In UK And EZ
In the US, in November, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% (c: 4.2%; p: 4.1%). NFPs rose by 227K (c: 200K; p: 36K). In November, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs increased to 49.7 (c: 48.8; p: 48.5) and 56.1 (c: 57.0; p: 55.;0). Composite PMI also edged up to 54.9 (c: 55.3; p: 54.1). In December, Michigan Consumer Sentiment increased to 74.0 (c: 73.0; p: 71.8).
In the EZ, in Q3, according to third estimate, GDP growth rate advanced by 0.4% q-o-q (p: 0.2%) and 0.9% y-o-y (p: 0.5%) as expected. Among the largest EZ economies, in Q3, GDP growth stalled q-o-q (p: 0.2%) and decelerate to 0.4% y-o-y (p: 0.6%) as expected in Italy. In October, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%. In November, HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs declined to 45.2 (c: 45.2; p: 46.0) and 49.5 (c: 49.2; p: 51.6). Composite PMI also edged down to 48.3 (c: 48.1; p: 50.0). In October, retail sales decelerated to 1.9% y-o-y (c: 1.7%; p: 3.0%).
In the UK, in November, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI decreased to 48.0 (c: 48.6; p: 49.9) and 50.8 (c: 50.0; p: 52.0) respectively. Composite PMI is edged down to 50.5 (c: 49.9; p: 51.8).
Financial Markets: Stock Prices Increased; UST Yields Declined; Dollar Increased; Oil And Gold Prices Decreased
Market Drivers: In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs, as November jobs data exceeded forecasts but stayed mild enough for further rate cuts. UST yields also fell after NFP data. In Europe, stocks rose, with easing concerns over French politics and hopes for quicker ECB policy easing.
Global Equities: Increased w-o-w (MSCI ACWI, +1.3%, to 873.73). The US S&P 500 index increased (+1.0% w-o-w, to 6,090.27). In the EZ, share prices increased (Eurostoxx 50, +3.6% w-o-w, to 4,977.35). In EMs, equity edged up (MSCI EMs, +2.5%, to 1,1105.08). Volatility declined to 14.29 (VIX S&P 500, 52w avg.: 15.6; 10y avg.: 18.8).
Fixed Income: w-o-w, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell (-3 bps to 4.15%). The 2-year US Treasury yields decreased (-6 bps to 4.10%). The German 10-year bund yields edged up (+3 bp to 2.11%).
FX: w-o-w, the US Dollar Index increased (DXY, +0.3%, to 105.7; EUR/USD -0.1%, to 1.06). In EMs, currencies decreased (MSCI EM Currency Index, -0.2% w-o-w, to 1,745.29).
Commodities: w-o-w, oil prices decreased (Brent, -2.5% to 71.12 USD/b). Gold prices declined w-o-w (-0.8% to 2,659.60 USD/Oz).
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