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PODCAST
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the difference between defending the “freedom of speech” and spreading misinformation.
6 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the Israel-Hezbollah military exchanges re-open the risk of a further extension to the conflict in the Middle East
30 August 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the US Presidential race will remain heated until the very last minute.
23 August 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the recent market rout masks a healthy repricing of valuations
16 August 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how major central banks are at a turning point, and its implication for global markets.
11 August 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the US elections are at a crossroads after the recent events.
2 August 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the double mistake of “Ursula” and “Giorgia” doesn’t bode well for the EU
26 July 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the US Presidential race will be affected by the attempted assassination of Trump and Project 2025
19 July 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss what may emerge from the ongoing political chaos.
12 July 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the consequences of having Trump, Putin and Le Pen in power all the same time.
5 July 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss whether the Petrodollar system may be replaced by China-led CBDCs.
28 June 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why Macron's decision to call a snap election may cost Europe dearly.
21 June 2024
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Takeaways from the Ambrosetti Forum: The New Cold War Between US and China Intensifies
Takeaways from the Ambrosetti Forum: The New Cold War Between US and China Intensifies
Takeaways from the Ambrosetti Forum: The New Cold War Between US and China Intensifies
by Brunello Rosa
9 September 2024
Last week, on the shores of Lake Como, the 50thedition of The European House – Ambrosetti (TEHA) Forum took place. As usual, this was an occasions for world leaders, mainly from the US, China, Europe, and the Middle East, to meet and discuss the most pressing geopolitical and macroeconomic issues. Being the 50th edition, an additional effort was made in order to have as many top leaders as possible participating.
For example, both Ukraine’s president Volodymir Zelensky and EU rotating president Viktor Orban, who have opposite views on the future of Europe, and on Russia, were present. Several US senators were also present, just a couple of months before its presidential election. Queen Rania of Jordan also spoke about the ongoing war in Gaza, and the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev provided the keynote speech on the first day of the forum. Italian PM Meloni (along with half of her government) were present, as were key figures from the EU Commission, including the Commissioner to Economic and Monetary Affairs Paolo Gentiloni and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell.
In absence of “open” macro-financial crises (for a change), the conference focused on rising geopolitical tensions and emerging technological developments. If anything, the fact that all the key G7 central banks are easing their policy stances, or are about to do so, will help reduce tensions in financial markets. One could only wish that geopolitical tensions could be dissipated that easily.
Takeaways from the Ambrosetti Forum: The New Cold War Between US and China Intensifies
Takeaways from the Ambrosetti Forum: The New Cold War Between US and China Intensifies
The first few sessions discussed the geopolitical landscape. Before the deep dives into the Russia-Ukraine conflict with President Zelensky, and the war in Gaza and the West Bank with Queen Rania, there was a thorough discussion about the ongoing Cold War 2 between the US and China, which included Niall Ferguson, Fu Ying and Meghan O’ Sullivan for the geopolitical part, and Eric Li and Nouriel Roubini for its macro component.
Social media are not subject to the same regulations as is the press, whose editors and publishers are required to verify the truthfulness of news published. It has therefore become the vehicle to spread all sorts of fake news, such as those that caused the mass riots in England in early August. So the ability of circulating fake news cannot be confused with defending the freedom of speech.
Since the Democrats are saying that Trump is a danger for democracy, considering his involvement in the January 6th, 2021 assault on Capitol Hill and his endorsement of Project 2025, the Republicans are now saying that Kamala Harris would be a danger for democracy since she would suppress the freedom of speech and would silence her opponents via censorship. This analogy seems to be very stretched.
In a world in which Germany’s far-right, sometimes neo-Nazi party Alternative fur Deutschland wins its first election (as we predicted it would in our preview), and in which Afghan women are actually being denied the freedom of speaking in public, confusing a ban on spreading fake news with censorship is a dangerous exercise. Freedom of speech is the bedrock of democracy, as Musk is correctly saying. Spreading fake news is the surest way of corroding this freedom from within.
LATEST RESEARCH
Review: ECB Cut Rates As Expected, And Keep The Door Open For Future Moves
By Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
12 September 2024
Maduro's Controversial Re-election: Unrest, Protests, and Global Reactions
by Lāsma Kokina and Brunello Rosa
4 September 2024
Would Gulf Arab States Support ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ if Trump Wins?
by Gulf State Analytics
3 September 2024
US Economy and Tech Earnings Slowdown Fears Keep Markets Volatile
by Brunello Rosa, Nato Balavadze and Shane Gravel
30 August 2024
The US Presidential Elections 2024: The Democratic National Convention Re-Opens the Presidential Race
By Marina Tovar i Velasco
29 August 2024
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
Week: 9 - 15 September
The Week Ahead: Inflation To Ease Off In US, Germany And France; UK Unemployment To Fall; ECB To Cut Rates
In the US, in August, headline inflation is expected to ease off to 2.6% y-o-y (p: 2.9%). In September, Michigan Consumer Sentiment is seen increasing slightly to 68.0 (p: 67.9).
In the EZ, In July, IP is seen rising by -2.7% y-o-y (p: -3.9%). The ECB is likely to cut its main policy rates by 25 bps, i.e. its i) interest rate on the ‘main refinancing operations’ to 4.00%; ii) interest rate on the ‘marginal lending facility’ to 4.25%; and iii) ‘deposit facility’ to 3.50%.
Among the largest EZ economies, in August, inflation rate is expected to: i) ease off to 1.9% y-o-y (p: 2.3%) in Germany; ii) cool off to 1.9% y-o-y (p: 2.3%) in France.
In the UK, in July, unemployment rate is likely to edge down to 4.1% (p: 4.2%). In July, IP is seen decelerating to 0.2% m-o-m (p: 1.1%).
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead: Yellen Sees U.S. Soft Landing; Gentiloni Says Europe Weathered "Terrible Prophecies"
Yellen says the US economy is now in a soft landing. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that she believes the U.S. economy is strong, viewing the recent slowdown in job growth as a sign of a soft landing rather than a recession. She noted that the U.S. is not experiencing significant layoffs and that the economy is well into its recovery.
Europe's economy has weathered the "terrible prophecies" says EU’s Paolo Gentiloni. However, it now faces challenges from the war in Ukraine and managing trade relations with China. In an interview at the Ambrosetti Forum, Gentiloni noted that while growth has been weak, Europe avoided the predicted recessions, blackouts, and divisions following Russia’s invasion. He emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine and maintaining open international trade, while being cautious in its dealings with China.