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Italian Presidential Elections
In this podcast we discuss the potential outcome of Italian Presidential Elections and why they matter also at EU level
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The Italian Presidential Election: Will Draghi Make It to The Quirinale Palace?
The Italian Presidential Election: Will Draghi Make It to The Quirinale Palace?
The Italian Presidential Election: Will Draghi Make It to The Quirinale Palace?
by Brunello Rosa
24 January 2022
The process to elect the next Italian president begins this week. The president is elected by an electoral college composed of 1008 “grand electors”, made up of current MPs (deputies and senators) as well as 58 regional representatives. A super-majority of 2/3rd of votes is necessary for a president to be selected in the first three rounds of voting. From the fourth round onward a simple majority of 505 votes will be sufficient.
There are a lot of misconceptions regarding the role of the president in Italy. Most people believe it is only a ceremonial position, carrying little weight in the actual decision-making political process of the country. This may be true in relatively tranquil times, in which political parties have full control of parliament and the government in general. But in turbulent times, when a political crisis emerges, the president is akin to the “reset button” of the system. The president appoints the PM and, by way of the PM’s suggestion, all the ministers as well. The president can also dissolve parliament, calling early elections. Other powers at the president’s discretion include the possibility of vetoing a law before it is promulgated (though he or she can do so only once), as well as being the formal commander in chief of the military. The president also presides as the governing body of the judiciary.
As we have previously discussed, the next Italian parliament will be reduced in size relative to the current parliament, a result of the referendum which cut the number of MPs by almost half. The next parliament will also be a balkanized one, given the fragmentation of the political system and the reduced electoral size of the major parties (the four largest parties each poll between 16% and 21%). In such a situation, we know that the next president will almost inevitably be the “deus ex machina” of the political system.
So, who will be chosen by the parties to be “commanded” for the next seven years? The parties may opt for a second-tier political figure, as has happened in the past. Such a pick would be less likely to disturb their political manoeuvring, after all.
The Italian Presidential Election: Will Draghi Make It to The Quirinale Palace?
The Italian Presidential Election: Will Draghi Make It to The Quirinale Palace?
At the same time, the proven inability of parties to provide viable political solutions in the past suggests that political leaders may be wise to choose somebody of a higher calibre, somebody who can actually resolve possible future crises constructively.
At the same time there is the need for Italy to have a very competent PM who is able to implement the recovery plan, which will allow Italy to receive around EUR 50bn in the next few months as part of the NextGenEU plan.
Both of these requirements point to the figure of Mario Draghi, who is certainly an extremely competent PM and would be an equally good president. Already in 2020 we discussed the pros and cons of having Draghi at Palazzo Chigi (as PM) or at Quirinale palace (as President). At that time, Draghi was nowhere near entering Italy’s political system.
More recently, we said that Draghi would be able to better exert his influence on the system as president, while most commentators thought he should remain PM. More recently, there seems to have been a conversion on the road to Damascus moment: all of the most influential press is pushing for Draghi to become president and thereby hope to ensure seven uninterrupted years of institutional stability. Most recently the FT joined this group calling for Draghi to become president, in an unsigned editorial.
We still consider Draghi at Quirinale a far better option than at Chigi, especially if the government remains similar to the current one, and if its parliamentary majority remains intact. But we know from experience that the election of the president is a roulette. Even much more powerful first-tier political leaders of the so-called First Republic (1948-1994) did not manage to ascend to the Quirinale. If Draghi does not make it, then, perhaps an institutional figure from the centre -right (Marcello Pera, Elisabetta Casellati, Gianni Letta, etc.) may emerge instead, or else perhaps a relatively independent institutional figure will emerge (such as the former president of the Chamber Pierferdinando Casini. The centre-left however does not seem to stand a chance to elect its president this time around, even if it could put forward credible candidates such as Romano Prodi or Paolo Gentiloni.
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The Geopolitical Corner by John Hulsman
A Little Local Difficulty: The Key To Understand Political Risk In Kazakhstan Is To Look Internally
A Little Local Difficulty: The Key To Understand Political Risk In Kazakhstan Is To Look Internally
A Little Local Difficulty: The Key To Understand Political Risk In Kazakhstan Is To Look Internally
by John Hulsman
11 January 2022
Introduction: A Question Of Analytical Lenses
A major problem for political risk analysts is that the best of us are big picture types; we are adept at finding grand global patterns while the rest of the world views things one day (and one crisis) at a time. Such a skill is valuable, necessary, and is a defining feature of the trade. However, as thinkers (and doers) like T.E. Lawrence made clear, it is imperative not to favor the global over local imperatives. For, as often as not, the key driver of specific foreign policy crises tends to be local conditions (then having regional and global consequences), rather than the other way around.
Such is surely the case regarding political risk in Kazakhstan, where protests this month are unprecedented in the country’s post-Cold War existence. Obviously, the outcome of the disturbances—with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev asserting himself over Founder of the Nation Nursultan Nazarbayev—has genuine regional and global repercussions. However, the political risk outcome has undoubtedly been driven by these local Lawrencian, rather than global, factors.
The Bolt From The Blue
Nationwide protests began on January
2nd, in oil-rich western Kazakhstan, over the government’s removal of price caps on liquified petroleum gas (LPG), the primary fuel used for vehicles in the country, causing the price to almost double overnight. The reformist idea was to gradually end the government artificially subsidizing gas prices for domestic fuel consumers, allowing the market to dictate prices instead.
A Little Local Difficulty: The Key To Understand Political Risk In Kazakhstan Is To Look Internally
A Little Local Difficulty: The Key To Understand Political Risk In Kazakhstan Is To Look Internally
However, these unprecedented disruptions quickly shifted and broadened their focus, taking aim at the larger questions of the country’s endemic corruption and income disparity. According to a startling 2019 report by KPMG, only 162 people own more than fifty percent of the country’s wealth. Former President Nazarbayev’s family are estimated to own at least 530 million pounds of luxury property in the UK, according to Chatham House.
Moving quickly and decisively, the former mild-mannered President Tokayev announced the government would institute a new price cap for the next 180 days, rolling back LPG prices to the 2021 level. But by then mass protests had spread across the country, escalating in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city. On January 5th, demonstrators attempted to take over government buildings there, including the police headquarters, while setting fire to the mayor’s office, and briefly taking control of the airport. On that same day, Tokayev accepted the government’s resignation.
[...]
(This is an excerpt of Dr. Hulsman's latest article, which you can read here).
Dr. John C. Hulsman is the widely-read Senior Columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the city of London. Dr. Hulsman is also a Life Member of the US Council on Foreign Relations. His most recent work, the best-selling, To Dare More Boldly; The Audacious Story of Political Risk, was published by Princeton University Press in April 2018 and is available for order on Amazon. His original writing work can all be found at johnhulsman.substack.com.
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
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The Quarter Ahead
Week: 24-30 January 2022
PMI To Fall In US And EZ And To Rise In The UK
In the US, PMIs are expected to fall as: i) manufacturing PMI stumbles (c: 56.7; p: 57.7); and ii) services PMI drops (c: 54.8; p: 57.6).
In the EZ, activity is projected to slows as: i) manufacturing PMI falls (c: 57.5; p: 58); and ii) services PMI decreases (c: 52.2; p: 53.1).
In the UK, business activity is seen to remain almost stable as: i) manufacturing slows(c: 57.6; p: 57.9); while ii) services PMIs rises (c: 54; p: 53.6). As such the composite index is seen increasing slightly to 54.0 from 53.6.
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
EU Discord About Deterrence vs Russia; Italian Presidential Election; Agreement Between Turkey and UAE
The EU has been put between a rock and a hard place after last week cyber-attack on Ukraine by Russia. Disagreement between member states on what the Russian aggression meant has not found a common ground, while the EU has reached unity on the need for a response. A list of potential sanctions has been drafted by the European Commission, but still needs final approval.
The US secretary of state will meet his Russian counterpart for talks, as the White House is seeking for a diplomatic approach to cease tensions over Ukraine. The trip for the US secretary of state Blinken involves meeting with the Ukrainian president and the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the UK. It is likely that Europe will be forced to respond to any threat to EU rules, while the UK will continue supplying Ukraine with short-range anti-tank missiles.
UK’s financial watchdog proposes to tighten the rules for the promotion of cryptocurrencies. The Financial Conduct Authority has suggested a rearrangement of the rules on selling risky investments to the public, responding to the “rapid growth” in risk-taking during the Covid-19 pandemic. Final rules, which are likely to be published by this summer by the FCA, should revise marketing restrictions as well as plans to improve risk warning attached to ads. The Treasury warned the new approach to crypto will also require legislation in Parliament.
Iran seeks to boost relations with Russia and China to better withstand American political and economic pressures. Tehran has set tough conditions for Washington, it will retract nuclear advances only if the US will lift all sanctions and will guarantee that no future government will withdraw from the agreement. As for now, Iran is pushing for economic progress and is seeking to do business with all countries other than the US and Israel, being China and Russia already among the top trading partners.
Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have signed a swap agreement worth $5bn to boost the Turkish lira. The agreement is said to reflect nation’s desire to enhance bilateral co-operation in financial matters by establishing a borrowing agreement rather than an investment by the Gulf nation in the country. President Erdogan is planning trips to Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia to enhance diplomatic relations and attract foreign investments.