Independent Research

Disruptive Ideas

Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views

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Policy Compass

Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments

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Monetary Affairs

Our take on the actions and decisions of global central banks

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Travel Notes

Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs

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Market Views

Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views

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Macro Picture

Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events

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October 2018

MONETARY AFFAIRS: ECB Review Rendez-Vous in December for All Decisions

by Brunello Rosa

25 October 2018

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BOC Review: Trade Relief Ensures An Autumn Hike and Hawkish Tones

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa

24 October 2018

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - PREVIEW: ECB Likely To Buy More Time Before Committing

by Brunello Rosa

22 october 2018

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American Mid-term elections: Verdict on the Trump Revolution

John C. Hulsman

17 October 2018

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MARKET VIEWS: A Healthy and Expected Market Sell-Off

by Brunello Rosa

15 October 2018

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The Journey To the Next Recession and Financial Crisis in 2020 Has Already Begun

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

9 October 2018

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September - October 2018

SCENARIO ANALYSIS -ITALY: Walking A Dangerous Line

by Brunello Rosa

5 October 2018

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BRAZIL: Partisan Trench War Impedes a Huge Potential

by Rémi Bourgeot

2 October 2018

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Italy’s “Populist” Budget Defies the EU, Markets And Rating Agencies

by Brunello Rosa

28 September 2018

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Divergence Between The U.S. And Other Countries Is Still Increasing

By A. Magnoli Bocchi and F. Quintana

27 September 2018

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Fed Hikes Rates and Drops “Accommodative” Stance

by Brunello Rosa

27 September 2018

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PREVIEW: Fed Continues to Normalize At a Steady Pace

by Brunello Rosa

and Nouriel Roubini

24 September 2018

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September 2018

Norges Bank Begins Its Well-Telegraphed Tightening Cycle

by Brunello Rosa

21 September 2018

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The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

20 September 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES: Focus on Italy’s First “Populist” Budget

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 September 2018

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Review: ECB Buys Time (Again) On Re-Investment Policy

by Brunello Rosa

13 September 2018

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ECB PREVIEW: Still Waiting For Re-Investment Policy Details

by Brunello Rosa

11 September 2018

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EM Global Tremors: Central Banks’ Different Strategies to Defend Their Currencies

by Rémi Bourgeot

4 September 2018

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August 2018

DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego, Damiano Terziotti

30 August 2018

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Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed

by Nouriel Roubini

23 August 2018

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MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

21 August 2018

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TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline

by Nouriel Roubini

14 August 2018

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TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising

by Nouriel Roubini

9 August 2018

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CENTRAL BANK REVIEW: BOE Ends Up Delivering A Dovish Hike

by Brunello Rosa

2 August 2018

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July 2018

PREVIEW: BoJ Unlikely To Change Its Policy Regime Apart From Minor Tweaks

by Nouriel Roubini

27 July 2018

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PREVIEW: BOE Finds A Window To Slot In a Rate Hike

by Brunello Rosa

27 July 2018

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ECB Review: Details On Reinvestment Policy to Come After the Summer

by Brunello Rosa

26 July 2018

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Emerging Markets Outlook: Rising Risks, Fragility Ahead

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana

24 July 2018

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ECB PREVIEW: Focus on Re-Investment Policy

by Brunello Rosa

20 July 2018

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MARKET VIEWS: Yield Curve “Near-Inversion” Does Not Imply U.S. Recession

by Brunello Rosa

13 July 2018

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June-July 2018

BOC Review: Hike Now, and on a Half-Yearly Basis

by Joseph Shupac

and Brunello Rosa

12 July 2018

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PREVIEW: BOC Set to Raise Rates, But No Longer Certain to Signal Further Hikes

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa

6 July 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES - France: Europe’s (Temporary) Bright Spot

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

4 July 2018

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IRAN: Mismanagement and International Tensions Stifle a Great Potential

by Rémi Bourgeot

29 June 2018

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Rising Risks in Emerging Markets From Decline in Global Liquidity

By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana

26 June 2018

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MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOE After June MPC and Mansion House Speech

by Brunello Rosa

22 June 2018

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FED PREVIEW Hike in June Done Deal, Four Hikes in 2018 Not Yet

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

11 June 18

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ECB PREVIEW: Discussion on QE Extension to Begin in June, But No Rush to Decide

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 June 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES: UK Post-Brexit Customs Options Mask Deeper Choices

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

6 June 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES: Germany Remains Cautious On Further Eurozone Integration

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

5 June 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES - China: Reforms and Rebalancing to Remain Gradual

by Nouriel Roubini

4 June 2018

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TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter

by Alessandro Magnoli and Pablo Gallego - 1 June 2018

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GERMANY: An Economic Powerhouse Trying to Revive the Political Centre Ground

by Rémi Bourgeot

and Brunello Rosa

23 May 2018

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ARGENTINA: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election

by Brunello Rosa and Renata Bossini

18 May 2018

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BOE Stays on Hold and Remains Data Dependent

Brunello Rosa

10 May 2018

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BOE To Remain on Hold in May (And Even a Hike in August Is Not A Done Deal)

Brunello Rosa

4 May 2018

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Oil Prices in 2018-20: Unlikely To Hamper Global Growth Likely To Support Oil-Related Assets

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana

3 May 2018

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US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?

Nouriel Roubini

2 May 2018

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Riksbank: Time to Push Back the Repo Rate Path

Brunello Rosa

23 April 2018

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BOE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties

Brunello Rosa

and Nouriel Roubini

20 April 2018

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BoJ Unlikely To Change Policy or Communication Until 2019 Amid Economic and Political Uncertainties

By Nouriel Roubini

18 April 2018

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ECB to Gradually Exit QE by Year-end

by Brunello Rosa

and Nouriel Roubini

17 April 2018

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US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact

By Francisco Quintana

and Pablo Gallego Cuervo

16 April 2018

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BOC Preview: Cautious BOC To Stay on Hold In April

Jospeh Shupac

and Brunello Rosa

13 April 2018

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Independent Research

Disruptive Ideas

Policy Compass

Monetary Affairs

Travel Notes

Market Views

Macro Picture

Research by region - country - theme

recent research papers

BOJ Still Far From A Shift In Policy Regime, But The Triggers For A Change Are Now Clearer

In this “Final Rush,” Risks Remain That A Crisis Might Be Needed To Break the Brexit Impasse

Hedging The Risk of A Potential Emerging Markets Crisis

October 2018

MONETARY AFFAIRS: ECB Review Rendez-Vous in December for All Decisions

BOC Review: Trade Relief Ensures An Autumn Hike and Hawkish Tones

MONETARY AFFAIRS - PREVIEW: ECB Likely To Buy More Time Before Committing

American Mid-term elections: Verdict on the Trump Revolution

MARKET VIEWS: A Healthy and Expected Market Sell-Off

The Journey To the Next Recession and Financial Crisis in 2020 Has Already Begun

September - October 2018

SCENARIO ANALYSIS -ITALY: Walking A Dangerous Line

BRAZIL: Partisan Trench War Impedes a Huge Potential

Italy’s “Populist” Budget Defies the EU, Markets And Rating Agencies

Divergence Between The U.S. And Other Countries Is Still Increasing

Fed Hikes Rates and Drops “Accommodative” Stance

PREVIEW: Fed Continues to Normalize At a Steady Pace

September 2018

Norges Bank Begins Its Well-Telegraphed Tightening Cycle

The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues

TRAVEL NOTES: Focus on Italy’s First “Populist” Budget

Review: ECB Buys Time (Again) On Re-Investment Policy

ECB PREVIEW: Still Waiting For Re-Investment Policy Details

EM Global Tremors: Central Banks’ Different Strategies to Defend Their Currencies

August 2018

DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up

Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed

MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets

TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline

TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising

CENTRAL BANK REVIEW: BOE Ends Up Delivering A Dovish Hike

July 2018

PREVIEW: BoJ Unlikely To Change Its Policy Regime Apart From Minor Tweaks

PREVIEW: BOE Finds A Window To Slot In a Rate Hike

ECB Review: Details On Reinvestment Policy to Come After the Summer

Emerging Markets Outlook: Rising Risks, Fragility Ahead

ECB PREVIEW: Focus on Re-Investment Policy

MARKET VIEWS: Yield Curve “Near-Inversion” Does Not Imply U.S. Recession

June-July 2018

BOC Review: Hike Now, and on a Half-Yearly Basis

PREVIEW: BOC Set to Raise Rates, But No Longer Certain to Signal Further Hikes

TRAVEL NOTES - France: Europe’s (Temporary) Bright Spot

IRAN: Mismanagement and International Tensions Stifle a Great Potential

Rising Risks in Emerging Markets From Decline in Global Liquidity

MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOE After June MPC and Mansion House Speech

June 2018

ITALY: New Government to Be Initially Only Modestly Confrontational with Europe

ECB Indicates End of QE and Beginning of Rates Guidance

FED REVIEW: Fed Delivers A Hawkish Hike

FED PREVIEW Hike in June Done Deal, Four Hikes in 2018 Not Yet

ECB PREVIEW: Discussion on QE Extension to Begin in June, But No Rush to Decide

TRAVEL NOTES: UK Post-Brexit Customs Options Mask Deeper Choices

TRAVEL NOTES: Germany Remains Cautious On Further Eurozone Integration

TRAVEL NOTES - China: Reforms and Rebalancing to Remain Gradual

TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter

May 2018

TRAVEL NOTES: RUSSIA - Putin to Continue Inward-Oriented Economic Policies

GERMANY: An Economic Powerhouse Trying to Revive the Political Centre Ground

ARGENTINA: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election

BOE Stays on Hold and Remains Data Dependent

BOE To Remain on Hold in May (And Even a Hike in August Is Not A Done Deal)

Oil Prices in 2018-20: Unlikely To Hamper Global Growth Likely To Support Oil-Related Assets

US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?

April 2018

Riksbank Pushes Back The Timing of First Rate Hike

TRAVEL NOTES FROM ITALY: Short-Term Resilience, Long-Term Fragility

Riksbank: Time to Push Back the Repo Rate Path

BOE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties

BoJ Unlikely To Change Policy or Communication Until 2019 Amid Economic and Political Uncertainties

ECB to Gradually Exit QE by Year-end

US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact