Independent Research
Disruptive Ideas
Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views
Policy Compass
Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments
Travel Notes
Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs
Market Views
Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views
Macro Picture
Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events
Research by region - country - theme
Recent research papers
The Future of Banking: Small is the New Big
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Mert Yildiz
24 January 2019
January 2019
Review: BoJ Lowers Inflation Projections and Remains On Auto-Pilot
by Alex Waters
23 January 2018
DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: The Revenge of Demographics
The Economic, Policy and Financial Implications of Current Demographic Trends, by Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac
15 January 2019
Turkey: Economic Stabilization After The March Local Elections
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
11 January 2019
REVIEW: BOC Remains On Hold, With Hawkish Undertones
By Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac
9 January 2019
DEcember 2018
PREVIEW: BoC Likely to Remain On Hold, While Sounding Upbeat
by Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac
7 January 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Riksbank Hikes its Policy Rate by 25bps
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
20 December 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Reduces Expected Number of Rate Hikes in 2019
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
19 December 2018
TRAVEL NOTES - France: Social Tensions Upend French and Eurozone Politics
by Rémi Bourgeot
19 December 2018
Global Outlook & Strategic Asset Allocation For 2019: Skating on Thinner Ice
by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa
and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
18 December 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS - PREVIEW: Fed to Signal Slower Pace of Policy Normalization
by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and
Nouriel Roubini
17 December 2018
November - December 2018
RIKSBANK PREVIEW: Riksbank Likely To Wait Longer Before Lift-Off
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
14 December 2018
ECB REVIEW: ECB Confirms Its Policy Stance (With Few Details on Reinvestment)
by Brunello Rosa
13 December 2018
MARKET VIEWS - Markets Buffeted By Tailwinds and Headwinds At Year-End
by Alex Waters
7 December 2018
TRAVEL NOTES-ITALY: Partially Caving In, Given Market and European Pressures
by Brunello Rosa
5 December 2018
TRAVEL NOTES - GERMANY: A Succession Drama at a Time of Economic Weakness
by Rémi Bourgeot
4 December 2018
ECB PREVIEW: We Do Not Expect A Radical Shift In Policy in December
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
30 November 2018
November 2018
Oil Outlook 2019-20: Oil Prices’ Gradual Decline To Support Global Growth
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
and Francisco Quintana
26 November 2018
China Preparing for A Possible Full-Scale Economic and Geopolitical Cold War
by Nouriel Roubini
20 November 2018
POLICY COMPASS - US 2018 Mid-Terms: An Election That Settled Nothing
by John C. Hulsman
20 November 2018
BOJ Still Far From A Shift In Policy Regime, But The Triggers For A Change Are Now Clearer
by Nouriel Roubini
8 November 2018
In this “Final Rush,” Risks Remain That A Crisis Might Be Needed To Break the Brexit Impasse
by Brunello Rosa
and Nouriel Roubini
7 November 2018
Hedging The Risk of A Potential Emerging Markets Crisis
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi,
Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Francisco Quintana
2 November 2018
October 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS: ECB Review Rendez-Vous in December for All Decisions
by Brunello Rosa
25 October 2018
BOC Review: Trade Relief Ensures An Autumn Hike and Hawkish Tones
by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa
24 October 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS - PREVIEW: ECB Likely To Buy More Time Before Committing
by Brunello Rosa
22 october 2018
American Mid-term elections: Verdict on the Trump Revolution
John C. Hulsman
17 October 2018
The Journey To the Next Recession and Financial Crisis in 2020 Has Already Begun
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
9 October 2018
September - October 2018
Italy’s “Populist” Budget Defies the EU, Markets And Rating Agencies
by Brunello Rosa
28 September 2018
Divergence Between The U.S. And Other Countries Is Still Increasing
By A. Magnoli Bocchi and F. Quintana
27 September 2018
PREVIEW: Fed Continues to Normalize At a Steady Pace
by Brunello Rosa
and Nouriel Roubini
24 September 2018
September 2018
The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
20 September 2018
TRAVEL NOTES: Focus on Italy’s First “Populist” Budget
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
17 September 2018
ECB PREVIEW: Still Waiting For Re-Investment Policy Details
by Brunello Rosa
11 September 2018
EM Global Tremors: Central Banks’ Different Strategies to Defend Their Currencies
by Rémi Bourgeot
4 September 2018
August 2018
DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego, Damiano Terziotti
30 August 2018
Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed
by Nouriel Roubini
23 August 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
21 August 2018
TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline
by Nouriel Roubini
14 August 2018
TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising
by Nouriel Roubini
9 August 2018
July 2018
PREVIEW: BoJ Unlikely To Change Its Policy Regime Apart From Minor Tweaks
by Nouriel Roubini
27 July 2018
ECB Review: Details On Reinvestment Policy to Come After the Summer
by Brunello Rosa
26 July 2018
Emerging Markets Outlook: Rising Risks, Fragility Ahead
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana
24 July 2018
MARKET VIEWS: Yield Curve “Near-Inversion” Does Not Imply U.S. Recession
by Brunello Rosa
13 July 2018
June-July 2018
BOC Review: Hike Now, and on a Half-Yearly Basis
by Joseph Shupac
and Brunello Rosa
12 July 2018
PREVIEW: BOC Set to Raise Rates, But No Longer Certain to Signal Further Hikes
by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa
6 July 2018
TRAVEL NOTES - France: Europe’s (Temporary) Bright Spot
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
4 July 2018
IRAN: Mismanagement and International Tensions Stifle a Great Potential
by Rémi Bourgeot
29 June 2018
Rising Risks in Emerging Markets From Decline in Global Liquidity
By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana
26 June 2018
June 2018
ITALY: New Government to Be Initially Only Modestly Confrontational with Europe
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
20 June 2018
FED PREVIEW Hike in June Done Deal, Four Hikes in 2018 Not Yet
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
11 June 18
ECB PREVIEW: Discussion on QE Extension to Begin in June, But No Rush to Decide
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
8 June 2018
TRAVEL NOTES: UK Post-Brexit Customs Options Mask Deeper Choices
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
6 June 2018
TRAVEL NOTES: Germany Remains Cautious On Further Eurozone Integration
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
5 June 2018
TRAVEL NOTES - China: Reforms and Rebalancing to Remain Gradual
by Nouriel Roubini
4 June 2018
TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter
by Alessandro Magnoli and Pablo Gallego 1 June 2018
May 2018
TRAVEL NOTES: RUSSIA - Putin to Continue Inward-Oriented Economic Policies
by
Nouriel Roubini
29 May 2018
GERMANY: An Economic Powerhouse Trying to Revive the Political Centre Ground
by Rémi Bourgeot
and Brunello Rosa
23 May 2018
ARGENTINA: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election
by Brunello Rosa and Renata Bossini
18 May 2018
BOE To Remain on Hold in May (And Even a Hike in August Is Not A Done Deal)
by
Brunello Rosa
4 May 2018
Oil Prices in 2018-20: Unlikely To Hamper Global Growth Likely To Support Oil-Related Assets
by A. Magnoli and F. Quintana
3 May 2018
April - May 2018
US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?
by Nouriel Roubini
2 May 2018
TRAVEL NOTES FROM ITALY: Short-Term Resilience, Long-Term Fragility
by Brunello Rosa
and Nouriel Roubini
24 April 2018
BOE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties
By
Brunello Rosa
and Nouriel Roubini
20 April 2018
BoJ Unlikely To Change Policy or Communication Until 2019 Amid Economic and Political Uncertainties
By Nouriel Roubini
18 April 2018
US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact
By Francisco Quintana
and Pablo Gallego Cuervo
16 April 2018
BOC Preview: Cautious BOC To Stay on Hold In April
by
Jospeh Shupac
and Brunello Rosa
13 April 2018