Rosa & Roubini Associates

118 Pall Mall London SW1Y 5ED | +44(0)207 1010 718

Independent Research

Disruptive Ideas

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Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views

Policy Compass

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Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments

Monetary Affairs

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Our take on the actions and decisions of global central banks


Travel Notes

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Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs

Market Views

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Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views

Macro Picture

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Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events

RESEARCH BY REGION - COUNTRY - THEME

recent research papers

EU Update: A Challenging Start For The “Geopolitical Commission”

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by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa

11 October 2019

ITALY Update: Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority

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by Brunello Rosa

4 October 2019

September - october 2019

Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income

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by Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani

3 October 2019 

Flash Review: RBA Cuts Rates And Signals Further Easing Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa

1 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

27 September 2019

Brexit Update: Despite The Constitutional Crisis, Boris Johnson Remains The Most Popular Leader

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by Brunello Rosa 

26 September 2019

POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring

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by N. Roubini and A. Magnoli Bocchi 

23 September 2019

Review: SNB Reviews Negative Rates Regime And Moves Closer To An Easier Policy Stance

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By Brunello Rosa

19 September 2019 

september 2019

Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates Once More Before A Pause

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By Brunello Rosa

19 September 2019

Flash Review: BoJ On Hold, Getting Ready To Ease Policy In October

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By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

19 September 2019

Fed Review: A Divided FOMC Cuts Rates, But Is Less Dovish Than Markets Expected

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by Brunello Rosa

18 September 2019

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities

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by Giorgio Cafiero

17 September 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Keeping the Powder (Mostly) Dry

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by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli

17 September 2019

FED PREVIEW: A 25bps Cut In September, With the Door Open to More Cuts Later On

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by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli

16 September 2019

August - september 2019

Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates

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By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli 

13 September 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Weigh Its Options In September

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

13 September 2019

ECB REVIEW: ECB Delivers A Low-Intensity, Open-Ended Easing Program

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By Brunello Rosa

12 September 2019

ECB PREVIEW: ECB’s Easing Package May Be Smaller Than Expected

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

6 September 2019

BOC, RBA and Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With A Dovish Bias

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa 

30 August 2019

TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization

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by A. Bocchi and Farah Aladsani

29 August 2019

August 2019

Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging

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 by Brunello Rosa

29 August 2019

ECB View Update: A Larger Stimulus Package For a More Severe Economic Slowdown

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by B. Rosa, N. Roubini and F. Panelli

23 August 2019

MEXICO: Deteriorating Macroeconomic Outlook Amid Policy Uncertainty

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa 

22 August 2019

Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty

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by Brunello Rosa

21 August 2019

Negative Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Response

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by Nouriel Roubini

20 August 2019

Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth

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by Francesca Panelli

16 August 2019


Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Risk Of Escalation

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by G. Cafiero, N. Roubini, B. Rosa

14 August 2019

Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election

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by  Brunello Rosa

9 August 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold, But Still Open To Future Hikes

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by Brunello Rosa

9 August 2019

Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing

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by Brunello Rosa

7 August 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ to Cut Rates in August

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

2 August 2019

Flash Review: BOE Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged And Awaits Brexit Outcome

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by Brunello Rosa

1 August 2019

July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut

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by Brunello Rosa

31 July 2019

Review: A Cautious BOJ Stays Put, But Signals Readiness To Ease If Economic Conditions Worsen

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

30 July 2019

Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In September

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by N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

29 July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions

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by A. Waters, B. Rosa, Nouriel Roubini

26 July 2019

Review: ECB Prepares To Deliver Fresh Stimulus Package In September

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by Brunello Rosa

25 July 2019

Impact Of Trade, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies

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by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi

24 July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: ECB Getting Ready To Deliver More Easing In September

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by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters, F. Panelli

19 July 2019

RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture

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 by Rémi Bourgeot and Brunello Rosa

17 July 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

12 July 2019

Flash Review: Bank of Canada Now On Hold, Ready To Go Either Way

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by Brunello Rosa

10 July 2019

Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

9 July 2019

BoC Preview: Balancing Global Headwinds with Domestic Resilience

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa

5 July 2019

JUNE - JULY 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS: G10 Central Banks Preparing For Their Easing Moves

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by Brunello Rosa

4 July 2019

EU: The End Of The Musical Chairs Game Delivers A Fragile Political Equilibrium

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by Brunello Rosa

3 July 2019

Flash Review: Riksbank Remains Cautious And Leaves Outlook Unchanged

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

3 July 2019

RBA Cuts Rates for a Second Month in a Row, Possibly With More Easing Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

2 July 2019

Tactical Risk-On In The Liquid Space, While Keeping Focus On Capital Preservation

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by Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani

1 July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Preview: Riksbank To Remain Prudently Dovish

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

28 June 2019

JUNE 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

28 June 2019

Japan Election Update: Risk of Double Election Remains Despite Abe’s Dismissal

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by Alex Waters

27 June 2019

POLICY COMPASS: EU Musical Chairs’ Battle At The Center of the EU Council Meeting

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

20 June 2019

Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates and Hints At More Hikes in 2019

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by Brunello Rosa

20 June 2019

REVIEW: Fed Moves To Easing Bias As It Stands Ready To Cut Rates In H2

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by Brunello Rosa

19 June 2019

Italy: Preparing For Fiscal Battles With The EU, Amid Domestic Political Turmoil

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By Brunello Rosa

19 June 2019

POLICY COMPASS: No-Deal Hard Brexit Is Still A Low-Probability Scenario

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

18 June 2019

Fed To Stay On Hold But Leave Wide Open the Option of Forthcoming Rate Cuts

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By N. Roubini, B. Rosa and Alex Waters

17 June 2019

Preview: Norges Bank Set To Increase Rates In Spite Of Dovish Fed and ECB

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

14 June 2019

US-China Ahead: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War

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by Nouriel Roubini 

14 June 2019

MARKET VIEWS - Fasten Your Seatbelts: Financial Markets’ Review and Outlook

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by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi 

14 June 2019

The SNB Introduces A New Policy Rate (and Claims To Have Space To Ease)

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

13 June 2019

MAY - JUNE 2019

US Inflation: Several Factors Dampening Structural Upward Pressures

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by Francesca Panelli 

13 June 2019

Review: ECB Is Not As Dovish As The Market Expected, But Is Ready To Ease

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by Brunello Rosa

6 June 2019

MACRO PICTURE - Argentina: Elections To Test The Austerity Measures

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Bocchi, Aladsani, Al Mughrabi, Fioretti 

5 June 2019

Review: RBA Cuts Its Cash Rate Due to Uncertainty On The Global Outlook

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By Alex Waters

4 June 2019

ECB Preview: Don’t Expect Too Much Substance, But Still a Dovish Tone

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

3 June 2019

MACRO PICTURE - USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations

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By N. Roubini, B. Rosa and G. Cafiero

23 May 2019

MAY 2019

US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth, Fed’s Monetary Policy

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

16 May 2019

MARKET VIEWS - Lebanon: An ‘Unstable Equilibrium’ Supported By Capital Inflows

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by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi

14 May 2019

FLASH REVIEW: Norges Bank Surprises Markets And Signals A Rate Hike In June

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by Brunello Rosa

9 May 2019

FRANCE: The Social Crisis Lingers, While European Alliances Are Being Questioned

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by  Rémi Bourgeot 

9 May 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: RBNZ Is The First G10 Central Bank to Cut Rates In This Cycle

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

8 May 2019

TRAVEL NOTES - CHINA: Growth Is Stabilizing at the Cost of Renewed Financial Imbalances

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by Nouriel Roubini

7 May 2019

APRIL - MAY 2019

RBA Review: Cash Rate Held Steady, Labour Market Key to Rate Outlook

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By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

7 May 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ Seen Cutting Rates in May

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by Brunello Rosa

3 May 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - RBA PREVIEW: A Rate Cut Is On The Table

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By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

3 May 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Remains Patiently Dovish, But No Rate Cuts In Sight

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

1 May 2019

Preview: Fed Still Patient, With Rate Cuts Considered Only If Outlook Worsens

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by Nouriel Roubini and Alex Waters

29 April 2019

Ultra-Dovish Riksbank Lowers Its Repo Rate Path And Extends QE to End-2020

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by Brunello Rosa

25 April 2019

APRIL 2019

Review: The BoJ Re-Commits to Its Current Policy Framework by Updating Its Forward Guidance

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by Alex Waters 

25 April 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Bank Of Canada Removes Its Tightening Bias

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by Brunello Rosa


24 April 2019

MACRO PICTURE - Brazil: The Pension Reform Is The Crucial Test For Bolsonaro

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi  Farah Aladsani

24 April 2019

The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If EZ Shock is Mild)

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

23 April 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold, For Now

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

19 April 2019

Bank of Japan Preview: BoJ In Wait-And-See Mode as Global Headwinds May Fade

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by Alex Waters and Nouriel Roubini

19 April 2019


ECB Review Assessing The Policy Stance Ahead Of Further Possible Action

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by Brunello Rosa

10 April 2019

JAPAN: Monetary and Fiscal Easing Space Is Available In A Downside Scenario

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by Nouriel Roubini

10 April 2019

ECB: Policy on Hold. No Tiering Yet and TLTRO Details to Be Decided Over Time

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 April 2019

ECB Is Mulling Reserve Tiering, But It Has Not Made Up Its Mind Yet

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by Brunello Rosa

8 April 2019

Spain: Steady Economic Growth Threatened By Political Uncertainty

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by Lapo Fioretti and Brunello Rosa 

3 April 2019

MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War

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By A. Waters, Brunello Rosa, N. Roubini

2 April 2019

March 2019

ASSET ALLOCATION: Maintain A Defensive Risk Profile, Focus On Capital Preservation

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

29 March 2019

Review: RBNZ Prepares For a Rate Cut (And Puts Pressure On RBA To Shift Risk Balance)

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

28 March 2019

Changes In Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools And Communication Policy

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by Nouriel Roubini

25 March 2019

Review: Hawkish Norges Bank Raises Rates and Signals Another Hike Within 6 Months

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

21 March 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Review: Fed Delivers Another Dovish Surprise

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters 

20 March 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Brexit Update: Going To The Wires

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by Brunello Rosa

15 March 2019

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