Rosa & Roubini Associates

118 Pall Mall London SW1Y 5ED | +44(0)207 1010 718

Independent Research

Disruptive Ideas

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Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views

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Policy Compass

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Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments

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Monetary Affairs

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Our take on the actions and decisions of global central banks


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Travel Notes

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Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs

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Market Views

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Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views

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Macro Picture

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Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events

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RECENT RESEARCH PAPERS

Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

12 July 2019

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Flash Review: Bank of Canada Now On Hold, Ready To Go Either Way

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 by Brunello Rosa

10 July 2019

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FRANCE: Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

9 July 2019

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BoC Preview: Balancing Global Headwinds with Domestic Resilience

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa

5 July 2019

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JUNE - JULY 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS: G10 Central Banks Preparing For Their Easing Moves

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by Brunello Rosa

4 July 2019

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EU: The End Of The Musical Chairs Game Delivers A Fragile Political Equilibrium

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by Brunello Rosa

3 July 2019

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Flash Review: Riksbank Remains Cautious And Leaves Outlook Unchanged

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

3 July 2019

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RBA Cuts Rates for a Second Month in a Row, With The Possibility Of More Easing Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

2 July 2019

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Tactical Risk-On In The Liquid Space, While Keeping Focus On Capital Preservation

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By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani

1 July 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Preview: Riksbank To Remain Prudently Dovish

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters


28 June 2019

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JUNE 2019

Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again

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By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

28 June 2019

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Japan Election Update: Risk of Double Election Remains Despite Abe’s Dismissal

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by Alex Waters

27 June 2019

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POLICY COMPASS: EU Musical Chairs’ Battle At The Center of the EU Council Meeting

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

20 June 2019

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Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates and Hints At More Hikes in 2019

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by Brunello Rosa

20 June 2019

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REVIEW: Fed Moves To Easing Bias As It Stands Ready To Cut Rates In H2

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by Brunello Rosa

19 June 2019

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Italy Update: Preparing For Fiscal Battles With The EU, Amid Domestic Political Turmoil

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By Brunello Rosa

19 June 2019

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POLICY COMPASS: No-Deal Hard Brexit Is Still A Low-Probability Scenario

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By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

18 June 2019

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PREVIEW: Fed To Stay On Hold But Leave Wide Open the Option of Forthcoming Rate Cuts

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By N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

17 June 2019

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Preview: Norges Bank Set To Increase Rates In Spite Of Dovish Fed and ECB

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

14 June 2019

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US-China Ahead: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War

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by Nouriel Roubini 


14 June 2019

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MARKET VIEWS - Fasten Your Seatbelts: Financial Markets’ Review and Outlook

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi 

14 June 2019

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The SNB Introduces A New Policy Rate (and Claims To Have Space To Ease)

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters


13 June 2019

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MAY - JUNE 2019

US Inflation: Several Factors Dampening Structural Upward Pressures

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By Francesca Panelli



13 June 2019

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Review: ECB Is Not As Dovish As The Market Expected, But Is Ready To Ease

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By Brunello Rosa



6 June 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - Argentina: Elections To Test The Austerity Measures

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Lapo Fioretti 

5 June 2019

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Review: RBA Cuts Its Cash Rate Due to Uncertainty On The Global Outlook

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By Alex Waters


4 June 2019

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ECB Preview: Don’t Expect Too Much Substance, But Still a Dovish Tone

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini


3 June 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations

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By Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Giorgio Cafiero

23 May 2019

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MAY 2019

US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth and Fed’s Monetary Policy

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa


16 May 2019

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MARKET VIEWS - Lebanon: An ‘Unstable Equilibrium’ Supported By Capital Inflows

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi

14 May 2019

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FLASH REVIEW: Norges Bank Surprises Markets And Signals A Rate Hike In June

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by Brunello Rosa


9 May 2019

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FRANCE: The Social Crisis Lingers, While European Alliances Are Being Questioned

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by  Rémi Bourgeot 

9 May 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: RBNZ Is The First G10 Central Bank to Cut Rates In This Cycle

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

8 May 2019

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TRAVEL NOTES - CHINA: Growth Is Stabilizing at the Cost of Renewed Financial Imbalances

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by Nouriel Roubini

7 May 2019

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APRIL - MAY 2019

RBA Review: Cash Rate Held Steady, Labour Market Key to Rate Outlook

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By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

7 May 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ Seen Cutting Rates in May

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by Brunello Rosa

3 May 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - RBA PREVIEW: A Rate Cut Is On The Table

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By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

3 May 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Remains Patiently Dovish, But No Rate Cuts In Sight

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

1 May 2019

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Preview: Fed Still Patient, With Rate Cuts Considered Only If Outlook Worsens

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by Nouriel Roubini and Alex Waters

29 April 2019

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Review: Ultra-Dovish Riksbank Lowers Its Repo Rate Path And Extends QE to End-2020

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by Brunello Rosa

25 April 2019

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APRIL 2019

Review: The BoJ Re-Commits to Its Current Policy Framework by Updating Its Forward Guidance

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by Alex Waters 

25 April 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Bank Of Canada Removes Its Tightening Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

24 April 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - Brazil: The Pension Reform Is The Crucial Test For Bolsonaro

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi  Farah Aladsani

24 April 2019

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The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If The Shock to EZ is Mild)

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

23 April 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold, For Now

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

19 April 2019

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Bank of Japan Preview: BoJ In Wait-And-See Mode as Global Headwinds May Fade

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by Alex Waters and Nouriel Roubini

19 April 2019

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ECB Review Assessing The Policy Stance Ahead Of Further Possible Action

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by Brunello Rosa

10 April 2019

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JAPAN: Monetary and Fiscal Easing Space Is Available In A Downside Scenario

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by Nouriel Roubini

10 April 2019

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ECB PREVIEW: Policy on Hold. No Tiering Yet and TLTRO Details to Be Decided Over Time

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 April 2019

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ECB Is Mulling Reserve Tiering, But It Has Not Made Up Its Mind Yet

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by Brunello Rosa

8 April 2019

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Spain: Steady Economic Growth Threatened By Political Uncertainty

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by Lapo Fioretti and Brunello Rosa 

3 April 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War

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By A. Waters, Brunello Rosa, Nouriel Roubini

2 April 2019

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March 2019

ASSET ALLOCATION: Maintain A Defensive Risk Profile, Focus On Capital Preservation

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

29 March 2019

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Review: RBNZ Prepares For a Rate Cut (And Puts Pressure On RBA To Shift Risk Balance)

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

28 March 2019

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Changes In Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools And Communication Policy

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by Nouriel Roubini

25 March 2019

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Review: Hawkish Norges Bank Raises Rates and Signals Another Hike Within Six Months

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

21 March 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Delivers Another Dovish Surprise

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters 

20 March 2019

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POLICY COMPASS - Brexit Update: Going To The Wires

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by Brunello Rosa

15 March 2019

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Preview: Norges Bank To Hike In March and Signal Another Hike in 2019

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by Alex Waters

15 march 2019

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Fed Preview: Extended Pause Highly Likely and Treasuries Runoff to End This Year

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By N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters

14 March 2019

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MARKET VIEWS - EM Currencies: The Fed’s Pause Provides Short-Term Support

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by Rémi Bourgeot

13 March 2019

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POLICY COMPASS - Japan: A General Election In July Is A Risk in A Politically Hectic 2019

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by Alex Waters

 12 March 2019

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Italy Update : The Economic Recession Worsens The Political Landscape (And Vice-Versa)

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by Brunello Rosa

11 March 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - EU Update: Awaiting The Populist Tsunami

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 March 2019

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February - March 2019

MACRO PICTURE; Venezuela’s Complicated Transition

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by L. Fioretti, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

7 March 2019

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Review: ECB Adds Monetary Accommodation

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by Brunello Rosa

7 March 2019

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REVIEW: Dovish BOC Signals A Long Pause

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by Brunello Rosa

6 March 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS: Reviewing DNB’s Reaction Function To Defend The Currency Peg

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

5 March 2019 

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - CENTRAL BANK PREVIEW: BOC Likely To Pause For Longer

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by Alex Waters, J. Shupac and Brunello Rosa 

2 March 2019

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MARKET VIEWS: A Fed Collar” Is Likely To Support The Markets In H1-2019

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

27 February 2019

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February 2019

PREVIEW: Change In Forward Guidance and New (T)LTRO Coming, Given Downside Risks

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

21 February 2019

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SNB: Rising Global and Domestic Risks To Fight With Little Policy Ammunition

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

20 February 2019

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RBA Jumps on The Dovish Bandwagon, While RBNZ Still Sits On The Fence

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by Alex Waters

19 February 2019

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TRAVEL NOTES - ITALY: Risks Re-Emerging After The Truce

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by Brunello Rosa 

15 February 2019

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Germany's Economic and Political Uncertainties Are Rising

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa 

14 February 2019

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Brexit Update: Getting to A Deal (One Way or Another)

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini 

13 February 2019

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January - February 2019

POLICY COMPASS -The Rise of the Populist International: European Dis-Integration Ahead?

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by Brunello Rosa and John Hulsman

6 February 2019

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REVIEW: The Fed Takes A Sharp Break In the Hiking Cycle and Moves to a Strongly Dovish Stance

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by Bruello Rosa

30 January 2019

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POLICY COMPASS - PERSIAN GULF: Increased Polarisation and Power Fragmentation Ahead

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by Cinzia Bianco

29 January 2019

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Fed Preview: Opening The Door To A Pause In The Hiking Cycle

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

25 January 2019

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ECB Twists Risks To The Growth Outlook To The Downside

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by Brunello Rosa

24 January 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - The Future of Banking: Small is the New Big

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by Alessandro Magnoli and Mert Yildiz

24 January 2019

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January 2019

Review: BoJ Lowers Inflation Projections and Remains On Auto-Pilot

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by Alex Waters

23 January 2018

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Norges Bank Preview: Waiting For March to Hike

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 Photo: Esten Borgos (from Norges Bank’s website)  

by Alex Waters

19 January 2018

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BoJ PREVIEW: A Stronger Yen May Cause Some Discomfort

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by Alex Waters 

17 January 2019

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DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: The Revenge of Demographics

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The Economic, Policy and Financial Implications  of Current Demographic Trends, by Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac

15 January 2019

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Turkey: Economic Stabilization After The March Local Elections

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi


11 January 2019

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REVIEW: BOC Remains On Hold, With Hawkish Undertones

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By Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac

9 January 2019

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DEcember 2018

PREVIEW: BoC Likely to Remain On Hold, While Sounding Upbeat

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by Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac

7 January 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Riksbank Hikes its Policy Rate by 25bps

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters 

20 December 2018

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Reduces Expected Number of Rate Hikes in 2019

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters 

19 December 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES - France: Social Tensions Upend French and Eurozone Politics

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by Rémi Bourgeot

19 December 2018

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Global Outlook & Strategic Asset Allocation For 2019: Skating on Thinner Ice

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by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa 

and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

18 December 2018

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - PREVIEW: Fed to Signal Slower Pace of Policy Normalization

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by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and 

Nouriel Roubini

17 December 2018

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November - December 2018

RIKSBANK PREVIEW: Riksbank Likely To Wait Longer Before Lift-Off

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

14 December 2018

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ECB REVIEW: ECB Confirms Its Policy Stance (With Few Details on Reinvestment)

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by Brunello Rosa 

13 December 2018

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MARKET VIEWS - Markets Buffeted By Tailwinds and Headwinds At Year-End

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by Alex Waters

7 December 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES-ITALY: Partially Caving In, Given Market and European Pressures

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by Brunello Rosa

5 December 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES - GERMANY: A Succession Drama at a Time of Economic Weakness

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by Rémi Bourgeot

4 December 2018

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ECB PREVIEW: We Do Not Expect A Radical Shift In Policy in December

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini 

30 November 2018

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GO TO RESEARCH ARCHIVES

 FOR PAPERS PUBLISHED BETWEEN SEPTEMBER 2017 AND AUGUST 2018 CLICK HERE 

Research Archive (From September 2018)