Rosa & Roubini Associates

118 Pall Mall London SW1Y 5ED | +44(0)207 1010 718

Independent Research

Disruptive Ideas

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Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views

Policy Compass

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Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments

Monetary Affairs

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Our take on the actions and decisions of global central banks


Travel Notes

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Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs

Market Views

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Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views

Macro Picture

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Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events

RESEARCH BY REGION - COUNTRY - THEME

RECENT RESEARCH PAPERS

Flash Review: BoJ Remains on Hold With An Easing Bias, While Revising Down Its Inflation Outlook

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By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani

21 January 2020

Flash Preview: ECB On Hold As Downside Risks Modestly Fade, While Launching The Strategic Review

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By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

20 January 2020

Flash Preview: Bank of Japan To Keep Its Cool And Let Fiscal Policy Do The Heavy-Lifting

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By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

17 January 2020

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold In January, While Keeping Its Modest Hiking Bias

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By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 January 2020

Getting Ready For The Brexit “Adjustment”

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By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 January 2020

Flash Preview: As The Economy Stabilises, Bank of Canada Remains on Hold

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By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani

17 January 2020

Bank of England Moving Closer To Cutting Rates

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By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

16 January 2020

US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead - An Update On The Conflict And Its Implications

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By Nouriel Roubini and Giorgio Cafiero

8 January 2020

Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa, Fawaz Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani

19 December 2019

Flash Central Bank Review: Riksbank Brings The Repo Rate Back To Zero, And Signals A Long Pause

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by Brunello Rosa and Karmen Meneses

19 December 2019

2020 GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND ASSET ALLOCATION - Despite The Improved Outlook, Beware of The Cracks

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by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa, Alessandro Magnoli 

16 December 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ PREVIEW: Bank of Japan to Stay on Hold, as Global Headwinds Are Lessened

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

16 December 2019

December 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Preview: Riksbank To Normalise Rates Before A Long Pause

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by Brunello Rosa

13 December 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain on Pause In December, And For Some Time

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by Brunello Rosa

13 December 2019

UK Election, Brexit and BoE Update: Johnson’s Landslide Victory Opens The Gates To Brexit

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 by Brunello Rosa

13 December 2019

Flash Review: Swiss National Bank On Hold, With An Easing Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

12 December 2019

Flash Review: “Owl-ish” Lagarde Plays It Safe At First ECB Presser

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by Brunello Rosa

12 December 2019

Flash Review: Dovish Fed Pledges To Stay On Hold During 2020 Electoral Year

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by Brunello Rosa

12 December 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: SNB Likely To Hold Off, For Now

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by Brunello Rosa, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Al Mughrabi

10 December 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Preview: Managing The Pause

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa


9 December 2019

ECB PREVIEW: All Attention Will Be On Lagarde’s First Press Conference

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini


6 December 2019

US-China Phase-1 Deal Likely To Be Completed Soon, Strategic Rivalry Likely To Increase Over Time

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By Nouriel Roubini

6 December 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Winter Is Coming For Europe’s Wobbly Coalitions

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by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa

5 December 2019

Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, With No Particular Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

4 December 2019

December - November 2019

Flash Review: RBA Remains on Hold, With A Clear Easing Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

3 December 2019

Flash Preview: RBA To Remain On Hold In December, While Remaining Dovish

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by Brunello Rosa

29 November 2019

Flash Preview: BoC To Remain On Hold, With Some Risk of Easing

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 by Brunello Rosa

29 November 2019

Six ‘Grey Swan’ Events Could Hit The Global Economy And Markets In 2020

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani 

28 November 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Fed’s Policy Into 2020-21: Lower For Longer?

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by Nouriel Roubini 

and Brunello Rosa

15 November 2019

Helicopter Drops of Money: Pros & Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

13 November 2019

november 2019

Flash Review: RBNZ Remains On Hold, But Is Prepared to Ease More If Needed

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by Brunello Rosa

13 November 2019

Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years

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by Luca Bandello and Brunello Rosa

8 November 2019

Flash Preview: We Expect The RBNZ To Cut Rates in November

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by Brunello Rosa

8 November 2019

BOE: MPC Splits But Remains On Hold, While Signalling Possible Cuts Ahead

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By Brunello Rosa

7 November 2019

Review: RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Reiterates Its Forward Guidance And Is Prepared To Ease More

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by Brunello Rosa

5 November 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Bank of England To Remain in Wait–And–See Mode Before The General Election

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by Brunello Rosa

1 November 2019

October - november 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: Reserve Bank of Australia to Stay On Hold In November

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by Brunello Rosa

1 November 2019

Review: BoJ Remains On Hold, But Changes Forward Guidance To Signal Higher Readiness To Ease Policy

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by Brunello Rosa

31 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Review: Federal Reserve Cuts Rates And Signals A Pause

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by Brunello Rosa 

30 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, But With A Clear Easing Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

30 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Preview: A 25-bps Rate Cut, And a Likely Pause After

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

28 October 2019

Resilient Economy And Expected Easier Fiscal Stance Give BoC Time To Weigh Its Options

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By Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac

25 October 2019

OCTOBER 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Preview: BoJ Mulls Policy Stimulus In October

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

25 October 2019

ECB Review: Draghi Downplays Governing Council Infighting At Farewell Presser

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by Brunello Rosa

24 October 2019

Review: The Riksbank Signals A Long Pause After The December “Probable” Hike

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by Brunello Rosa

24 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Review: Norges Bank Remains On Pause and Mildly Hawkish

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by Brunello Rosa

24 October 2019

Oil Outlook In 2020-21: In Absence Of Supply Shocks, Faltering Global Demand Will Dampen Oil Prices

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By Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani

23 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - ECB PREVIEW: Acknowledging Dissent During Draghi’s Farewell Council Meeting

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by Brunello Rosa

22 October 2019

Preview: Riksbank Remains On Hold, While Keeping Its Hiking Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

21 October 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Stay On Hold With No Hiking Bias

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By Brunello Rosa

18 October 2019

POLICY COMPASS: Brexit Negotiations Continue Amid Increasing Uncertainty

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by Brunello Rosa

16 October 2019

Russia and The EU: The Geo-Strategic Implications of The Nord Stream-2 Gas Pipeline

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By Paul Martin

15 October 2019

EU Update: A Challenging Start For The “Geopolitical Commission”

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by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa

11 October 2019

ITALY Update: Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority

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by Brunello Rosa

4 October 2019

September - october 2019

Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income

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by Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani

3 October 2019 

Flash Review: RBA Cuts Rates And Signals Further Easing Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa

1 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

27 September 2019

Brexit Update: Despite The Constitutional Crisis, Boris Johnson Remains The Most Popular Leader

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by Brunello Rosa 

26 September 2019

POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring

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by N. Roubini and A. Magnoli Bocchi 

23 September 2019

Review: SNB Reviews Negative Rates Regime And Moves Closer To An Easier Policy Stance

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By Brunello Rosa

19 September 2019 

september 2019

Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates Once More Before A Pause

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By Brunello Rosa

19 September 2019

Flash Review: BoJ On Hold, Getting Ready To Ease Policy In October

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By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

19 September 2019

Fed Review: A Divided FOMC Cuts Rates, But Is Less Dovish Than Markets Expected

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by Brunello Rosa

18 September 2019

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities

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by Giorgio Cafiero

17 September 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Keeping the Powder (Mostly) Dry

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by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli

17 September 2019

FED PREVIEW: A 25bps Cut In September, With the Door Open to More Cuts Later On

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by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli

16 September 2019

August - september 2019

Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates

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By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli 

13 September 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Weigh Its Options In September

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

13 September 2019

ECB REVIEW: ECB Delivers A Low-Intensity, Open-Ended Easing Program

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By Brunello Rosa

12 September 2019

ECB PREVIEW: ECB’s Easing Package May Be Smaller Than Expected

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

6 September 2019

BOC, RBA and Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With A Dovish Bias

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa 

30 August 2019

TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization

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by A. Bocchi and Farah Aladsani

29 August 2019

August 2019

Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging

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 by Brunello Rosa

29 August 2019

ECB View Update: A Larger Stimulus Package For a More Severe Economic Slowdown

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by B. Rosa, N. Roubini and F. Panelli

23 August 2019

MEXICO: Deteriorating Macroeconomic Outlook Amid Policy Uncertainty

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa 

22 August 2019

Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty

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by Brunello Rosa

21 August 2019

Negative Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Response

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by Nouriel Roubini

20 August 2019

Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth

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by Francesca Panelli

16 August 2019


Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Risk Of Escalation

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by G. Cafiero, N. Roubini, B. Rosa

14 August 2019

Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election

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by  Brunello Rosa

9 August 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold, But Still Open To Future Hikes

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by Brunello Rosa

9 August 2019

Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing

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by Brunello Rosa

7 August 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ to Cut Rates in August

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

2 August 2019

Flash Review: BOE Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged And Awaits Brexit Outcome

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by Brunello Rosa

1 August 2019

July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut

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by Brunello Rosa

31 July 2019

Review: A Cautious BOJ Stays Put, But Signals Readiness To Ease If Economic Conditions Worsen

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

30 July 2019

Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In September

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by N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

29 July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions

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by A. Waters, B. Rosa, Nouriel Roubini

26 July 2019

Review: ECB Prepares To Deliver Fresh Stimulus Package In September

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by Brunello Rosa

25 July 2019

Impact Of Trade, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies

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by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi

24 July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: ECB Getting Ready To Deliver More Easing In September

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by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters, F. Panelli

19 July 2019

RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture

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 by Rémi Bourgeot and Brunello Rosa

17 July 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

12 July 2019

Flash Review: Bank of Canada Now On Hold, Ready To Go Either Way

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by Brunello Rosa

10 July 2019

Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

9 July 2019

BoC Preview: Balancing Global Headwinds with Domestic Resilience

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa

5 July 2019

JUNE - JULY 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS: G10 Central Banks Preparing For Their Easing Moves

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by Brunello Rosa

4 July 2019

EU: The End Of The Musical Chairs Game Delivers A Fragile Political Equilibrium

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by Brunello Rosa

3 July 2019

Flash Review: Riksbank Remains Cautious And Leaves Outlook Unchanged

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

3 July 2019

RBA Cuts Rates for a Second Month in a Row, Possibly With More Easing Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

2 July 2019

Tactical Risk-On In The Liquid Space, While Keeping Focus On Capital Preservation

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by Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani

1 July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Preview: Riksbank To Remain Prudently Dovish

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

28 June 2019

JUNE 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

28 June 2019

Japan Election Update: Risk of Double Election Remains Despite Abe’s Dismissal

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by Alex Waters

27 June 2019

POLICY COMPASS: EU Musical Chairs’ Battle At The Center of the EU Council Meeting

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

20 June 2019

Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates and Hints At More Hikes in 2019

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by Brunello Rosa

20 June 2019

REVIEW: Fed Moves To Easing Bias As It Stands Ready To Cut Rates In H2

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by Brunello Rosa

19 June 2019

Italy: Preparing For Fiscal Battles With The EU, Amid Domestic Political Turmoil

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By Brunello Rosa

19 June 2019

POLICY COMPASS: No-Deal Hard Brexit Is Still A Low-Probability Scenario

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

18 June 2019

Fed To Stay On Hold But Leave Wide Open the Option of Forthcoming Rate Cuts

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By N. Roubini, B. Rosa and Alex Waters

17 June 2019

Preview: Norges Bank Set To Increase Rates In Spite Of Dovish Fed and ECB

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

14 June 2019

US-China Ahead: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War

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by Nouriel Roubini 

14 June 2019

MARKET VIEWS - Fasten Your Seatbelts: Financial Markets’ Review and Outlook

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by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi 

14 June 2019

The SNB Introduces A New Policy Rate (and Claims To Have Space To Ease)

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

13 June 2019

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