Independent Research
Disruptive Ideas
Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views
Policy Compass
Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments
Monetary Affairs
Our take on the actions and decisions of global central banks
Travel Notes
Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs
Market Views
Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views
Macro Picture
Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events
recent research papers
The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
20 September 2018
TRAVEL NOTES: Focus on Italy’s First “Populist” Budget
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
17 September 2018
Review: ECB Buys Time (Again) On Re-Investment Policy
by Brunello Rosa
13 September 2018
ECB PREVIEW: Still Waiting For Re-Investment Policy Details
by Brunello Rosa
11 September 2018
EM Global Tremors: Central Banks’ Different Strategies to Defend Their Currencies
by Rémi Bourgeot
4 September 2018
August 2018
DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego, Damiano Terziotti
30 August 2018
Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed
by Nouriel Roubini
23 August 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
21 August 2018
TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline
by Nouriel Roubini
14 August 2018
TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising
by Nouriel Roubini
9 August 2018
CENTRAL BANK REVIEW: BOE Ends Up Delivering A Dovish Hike
by Brunello Rosa
2 August 2018
July 2018
PREVIEW: BoJ Unlikely To Change Its Policy Regime Apart From Minor Tweaks
by Nouriel Roubini
27 July 2018
PREVIEW: BOE Finds A Window To Slot In a Rate Hike
by Brunello Rosa
27 July 2018
ECB Review: Details On Reinvestment Policy to Come After the Summer
by Brunello Rosa
26 July 2018
Emerging Markets Outlook: Rising Risks, Fragility Ahead
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana
24 July 2018
ECB PREVIEW: Focus on Re-Investment Policy
by Brunello Rosa
20 July 2018
MARKET VIEWS: Yield Curve “Near-Inversion” Does Not Imply U.S. Recession
by Brunello Rosa
13 July 2018
June-July 2018
BOC Review: Hike Now, and on a Half-Yearly Basis
by Joseph Shupac
and Brunello Rosa
12 July 2018
PREVIEW: BOC Set to Raise Rates, But No Longer Certain to Signal Further Hikes
by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa
6 July 2018
TRAVEL NOTES - France: Europe’s (Temporary) Bright Spot
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
4 July 2018
IRAN: Mismanagement and International Tensions Stifle a Great Potential
by Rémi Bourgeot
29 June 2018
Rising Risks in Emerging Markets From Decline in Global Liquidity
By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana
26 June 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOE After June MPC and Mansion House Speech
by Brunello Rosa
22 June 2018
June 2018
ITALY: New Government to Be Initially Only Modestly Confrontational with Europe
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
20 June 2018
ECB Indicates End of QE and Beginning of Rates Guidance
by
Brunello Rosa
14 June 2018
FED REVIEW: Fed Delivers A Hawkish Hike
by
Brunello Rosa
13 June 2018
FED PREVIEW Hike in June Done Deal, Four Hikes in 2018 Not Yet
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
11 June 18
ECB PREVIEW: Discussion on QE Extension to Begin in June, But No Rush to Decide
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
8 June 2018
TRAVEL NOTES: UK Post-Brexit Customs Options Mask Deeper Choices
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
6 June 2018
TRAVEL NOTES: Germany Remains Cautious On Further Eurozone Integration
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
5 June 2018
TRAVEL NOTES - China: Reforms and Rebalancing to Remain Gradual
by Nouriel Roubini
4 June 2018
TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter
by Alessandro Magnoli and Pablo Gallego - 1 June 2018
May 2018
TRAVEL NOTES: RUSSIA - Putin to Continue Inward-Oriented Economic Policies
by Nouriel Roubini
29 May 2018
GERMANY: An Economic Powerhouse Trying to Revive the Political Centre Ground
by Rémi Bourgeot
and Brunello Rosa
23 May 2018
ARGENTINA: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election
by Brunello Rosa and Renata Bossini
18 May 2018
BOE Stays on Hold and Remains Data Dependent
by
Brunello Rosa
10 May 2018
BOE To Remain on Hold in May (And Even a Hike in August Is Not A Done Deal)
by
Brunello Rosa
4 May 2018
Oil Prices in 2018-20: Unlikely To Hamper Global Growth Likely To Support Oil-Related Assets
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana
3 May 2018
US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?
by
Nouriel Roubini
2 May 2018
April 2018
Riksbank Pushes Back The Timing of First Rate Hike
by Brunello Rosa
26 April 2018
TRAVEL NOTES FROM ITALY: Short-Term Resilience, Long-Term Fragility
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
24 April 2018
Riksbank: Time to Push Back the Repo Rate Path
by
Brunello Rosa
23 April 2018
BOE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties
By
Brunello Rosa
and Nouriel Roubini
20 April 2018
BoJ Unlikely To Change Policy or Communication Until 2019 Amid Economic and Political Uncertainties
By Nouriel Roubini
18 April 2018
ECB to Gradually Exit QE by Year-end
by Brunello Rosa
and Nouriel Roubini
17 April 2018
US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact
By Francisco Quintana
and Pablo Gallego Cuervo
16 April 2018
BOC Preview: Cautious BOC To Stay on Hold In April
by
Jospeh Shupac and Brunello Rosa
13 April 2018
March 2018
Asset Alocation Update: Cautious Risk Exposure With Defensive Positioning
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
and Francisco Quintana
29 March 2018
Brexit: Transition Deal, Trade Agreements and Risks of a Cliff-Edge into WTO
By Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Renata Bossini
28 March 2018
Russia: An Impressive Normalisation Towards Modest Growth
By Rémi Bourgeot
23 March 2018
Fed Review: Fed Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Hike
by Brunello Rosa
22 March 2018
Fed Preview March 2018: A “Relatively Hawkish” Hike
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
19 March 2018
India: Rising Macro Headwinds In Spite of Recent Pick-Up in Growth
By Nouriel Roubini
13 March 2018
ECB Drops Easing Bias Amid Dovish Press Conference
by Brunello Rosa
8 March 2018
BOC Preview: On Hold Given Negative Economic Surprises
by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa
6 March 2018
ECB’s Dilemma: Euro Strength vs Removing the Easing Bias
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
2 March 2018
February 2018
Monetary Policy in the Medium-Term: Tighter Stance, Expanded Toolkit
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
and Francisco Quintana
23 February 2018
Volatility and Inflation Fears Likely to Continue Weighing on Markets
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
14 February 2018
Riskbank Review: On Hold, With A Dovish Tilt
by Brunello Rosa
14 February 2018
Q&A on FOMC Composition and Fed’s Policy Regime
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
13 February 2018
Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With a Dovish Bias
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
12 February 2018
BoE Delivers Hawkish Inflation Report
by Brunello Rosa
8 February 2018
Turkey: Muddling Through Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Challenges
by Rémi Bourgeot
7 February 2018
Italian Elections: Uncertainty and Complacency Abound
by Brunello Rosa
6 February 2018
BOE Preview February 2018: On Hold, But Alert
by Brunello Rosa
2 February 2018
January 2018
China: In a Slow Transition, No Hard-landing But a Bumpy Road Ahead
by Francisco Quintana
30 January 2018
Fed Preview: On Hold in January, Door Open in March
by Brunello Rosa
26 January 2018
ECB Review: Strong Euro at the Forefront of ECB’s Attention
by Brunello Rosa
25 January 2018
ECB Preview: Taking Stock of the Strong Euro
by Brunello Rosa
22 January 2018
The European “Musical Chairs” Game Has Just Begun
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
17 January 2018
Canada: Strong Cyclical Growth, But Structural Challenges Lie Ahead
by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa
11 January 2018
Western Balkans: Still Many Obstacles to EU Accession
by Arlind Rama and Brunello Rosa
by 9 January 2018
Travel Notes: Will Macron Succeed in Reforming France?
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
3 January 2018