Independent Research

Disruptive Ideas

Disruptive Ideas

Disruptive Ideas

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Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views

Policy Compass

Disruptive Ideas

Disruptive Ideas

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Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments

Monetary Affairs

Disruptive Ideas

Monetary Affairs

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Our take on the actions and decisions of global central banks


Travel Notes

Macro Picture

Monetary Affairs

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Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs

Market Views

Macro Picture

Macro Picture

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Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views

Macro Picture

Macro Picture

Macro Picture

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Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events

RESEARCH BY REGION - COUNTRY - THEME

RECENT RESEARCH PAPERS

Outlook Update - PART 3: COVID-19 To Depress Valuations Until Pandemic Solution Is In Sight

Outlook Update - PART 3: COVID-19 To Depress Valuations Until Pandemic Solution Is In Sight

Outlook Update - PART 3: COVID-19 To Depress Valuations Until Pandemic Solution Is In Sight

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By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

26 March 2020

Outlook Update – PART 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Response To COVID-19

Outlook Update - PART 3: COVID-19 To Depress Valuations Until Pandemic Solution Is In Sight

Outlook Update - PART 3: COVID-19 To Depress Valuations Until Pandemic Solution Is In Sight

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By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa


20 March 2020

Flash ECB, BOE and SNB Reviews: Central Banks Step Up Their Monetary Stimulus

Outlook Update - PART 3: COVID-19 To Depress Valuations Until Pandemic Solution Is In Sight

Flash ECB, BOE and SNB Reviews: Central Banks Step Up Their Monetary Stimulus

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By Brunello Rosa and Karmen Meneses


19 March 2020

COVID-19 Leads To A Global Recession With Severe Bear Market and Debt Crises

Flash Review: BOJ Leaves Rates Unchanged But Increases Private Sector Asset Purchases

Flash ECB, BOE and SNB Reviews: Central Banks Step Up Their Monetary Stimulus

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By Nouriel Roubini, Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Brunello Rosa

17 March 2020

Flash Review: BOJ Leaves Rates Unchanged But Increases Private Sector Asset Purchases

Flash Review: BOJ Leaves Rates Unchanged But Increases Private Sector Asset Purchases

Flash Review: BOJ Leaves Rates Unchanged But Increases Private Sector Asset Purchases

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By Brunello Rosa

16 March 2020

Flash Review: Fed and Other Central Bank Easing Doesn’t Stop Market Rout

Flash Review: BOJ Leaves Rates Unchanged But Increases Private Sector Asset Purchases

Flash Review: BOJ Leaves Rates Unchanged But Increases Private Sector Asset Purchases

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By Brunello Rosa

16 March 2020

SNB Flash Preview: Markets Expect No Change, But SNB Will Likely Provide Monetary Stimulus

SNB Flash Preview: Markets Expect No Change, But SNB Will Likely Provide Monetary Stimulus

SNB Flash Preview: Markets Expect No Change, But SNB Will Likely Provide Monetary Stimulus

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By Brunello Rosa

16 March 2020

Flash Preview: BOJ To Follow Global Central Banks And Ease Its Policy Stance

SNB Flash Preview: Markets Expect No Change, But SNB Will Likely Provide Monetary Stimulus

SNB Flash Preview: Markets Expect No Change, But SNB Will Likely Provide Monetary Stimulus

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By Brunello Rosa, Farah Aladsani and Nouriel Roubini

13 March 2020

The UK Shows Initial Signs Of Policy Coordination Against Coronavirus

SNB Flash Preview: Markets Expect No Change, But SNB Will Likely Provide Monetary Stimulus

The UK Shows Initial Signs Of Policy Coordination Against Coronavirus

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By Brunello Rosa


12 March 2020

february - march 2020

Flash Review: ECB Delivers Initial Easing Package Amid Market Rout

BoC Follows The Fed (And Cuts Rates By 50bps) And Anticipates Other G10 Central Banks

Flash Review: ECB Delivers Initial Easing Package Amid Market Rout

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by Brunello Rosa

12 March 2020

ECB To Deliver An Easing Package To Counter COVID-19 Shock

BoC Follows The Fed (And Cuts Rates By 50bps) And Anticipates Other G10 Central Banks

Flash Review: ECB Delivers Initial Easing Package Amid Market Rout

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By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani

9 March 2020

BoC Follows The Fed (And Cuts Rates By 50bps) And Anticipates Other G10 Central Banks

BoC Follows The Fed (And Cuts Rates By 50bps) And Anticipates Other G10 Central Banks

BoC Follows The Fed (And Cuts Rates By 50bps) And Anticipates Other G10 Central Banks

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By Brunello Rosa

4 March 2020

Flash Review: RBA Kicks Off The New Round Of Monetary Easing In G10

Flash Previews: BOC and RBA To Remain on Hold In March, While Sounding Dovish

BoC Follows The Fed (And Cuts Rates By 50bps) And Anticipates Other G10 Central Banks

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By Brunello Rosa and Karmen Meneses

3 March 2020

Flash Previews: BOC and RBA To Remain on Hold In March, While Sounding Dovish

Flash Previews: BOC and RBA To Remain on Hold In March, While Sounding Dovish

Flash Previews: BOC and RBA To Remain on Hold In March, While Sounding Dovish

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By Brunello Rosa

28 February 2020

Flash Review: RBNZ Remains Hawkish Despite Coronavirus Risk

Flash Previews: BOC and RBA To Remain on Hold In March, While Sounding Dovish

Flash Previews: BOC and RBA To Remain on Hold In March, While Sounding Dovish

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By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani

12 February 202o

COVID-19 Will Trigger a Massive Shock to the Global Economy and Markets

Thuringia-Gate Has Decisive Consequences For Both Germany And Europe As A Whole

Thuringia-Gate Has Decisive Consequences For Both Germany And Europe As A Whole

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By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

25 February 2020

Thuringia-Gate Has Decisive Consequences For Both Germany And Europe As A Whole

Thuringia-Gate Has Decisive Consequences For Both Germany And Europe As A Whole

Thuringia-Gate Has Decisive Consequences For Both Germany And Europe As A Whole

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By John Hulsman and Brunello Rosa

25 February 2020

Argentina: The Road Ahead For The Debt-Restructuring Negotiations

Thuringia-Gate Has Decisive Consequences For Both Germany And Europe As A Whole

TRAVEL NOTES: FRANCE - Macron Mixes Reforms And “Populist” Approach

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By Nouriel Roubini and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

18 February 2020

TRAVEL NOTES: FRANCE - Macron Mixes Reforms And “Populist” Approach

Flash Review: Riksbank On Hold, With A Dovish Twist In The Statement

TRAVEL NOTES: FRANCE - Macron Mixes Reforms And “Populist” Approach

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By Brunello Rosa

14 February 2020

Flash Review: Riksbank On Hold, With A Dovish Twist In The Statement

Flash Review: Riksbank On Hold, With A Dovish Twist In The Statement

Flash Review: Riksbank On Hold, With A Dovish Twist In The Statement

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by Brunello Rosa and Karmen Meneses

12 February 2020

Flash Preview: Riksbank on Hold, With An Eye On The Global Economy

Flash Review: Riksbank On Hold, With A Dovish Twist In The Statement

Flash Review: Riksbank On Hold, With A Dovish Twist In The Statement

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By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

7 February 2020

january - feburary 2020

Flash Preview: RBNZ to Deliver A “Dovish Hold”

Flash Review: A “Hawkish Hold” for RBA, But Rate Cuts Remain On The Table

Flash Review: A “Hawkish Hold” for RBA, But Rate Cuts Remain On The Table

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By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani


7 February 2020

Flash Review: A “Hawkish Hold” for RBA, But Rate Cuts Remain On The Table

Flash Review: A “Hawkish Hold” for RBA, But Rate Cuts Remain On The Table

Flash Review: A “Hawkish Hold” for RBA, But Rate Cuts Remain On The Table

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By Brunello Rosa and Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi

4 February 2020

Flash Preview: RBA To Hold Off Providing Further Easing (For Now)

Flash Review: A “Hawkish Hold” for RBA, But Rate Cuts Remain On The Table

Bank of England Flash Review: “So Far Good Enough,” But A Rate Cut Remains On The Table

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By Brunello Rosa and Karmen Meneses


31 January 2020

Bank of England Flash Review: “So Far Good Enough,” But A Rate Cut Remains On The Table

Bank of England Flash Review: “So Far Good Enough,” But A Rate Cut Remains On The Table

Bank of England Flash Review: “So Far Good Enough,” But A Rate Cut Remains On The Table

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 By Brunello Rosa


30 January 2020

Flash Review: Fed’s Policy Stance Remains “Appropriate,” With A Dovish Touch

Bank of England Flash Review: “So Far Good Enough,” But A Rate Cut Remains On The Table

Flash Review: Fed’s Policy Stance Remains “Appropriate,” With A Dovish Touch

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By Brunello Rosa


29 January 2020

Flash Preview: Fed to Remain on Hold in January

Bank of England Flash Review: “So Far Good Enough,” But A Rate Cut Remains On The Table

Flash Review: Fed’s Policy Stance Remains “Appropriate,” With A Dovish Touch

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By Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

27 January 2020

Flash Review: Regional Elections Give a Breather To The Italian Government

Flash Review: ECB Marginally Raises The (Negative) Balance of Risks And Launches Its Strategy Review

Flash Preview: BoE To Remain On Hold (But With The High Risk Of a Cut) In January

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By Brunello Rosa


27 January 2020

Flash Preview: BoE To Remain On Hold (But With The High Risk Of a Cut) In January

Flash Review: ECB Marginally Raises The (Negative) Balance of Risks And Launches Its Strategy Review

Flash Preview: BoE To Remain On Hold (But With The High Risk Of a Cut) In January

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by Brunello Rosa, Nouriel Roubini and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

24 January 2020

Flash Review: ECB Marginally Raises The (Negative) Balance of Risks And Launches Its Strategy Review

Flash Review: ECB Marginally Raises The (Negative) Balance of Risks And Launches Its Strategy Review

Flash Review: ECB Marginally Raises The (Negative) Balance of Risks And Launches Its Strategy Review

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by Brunello Rosa


23 January 2020

Flash Review: Norges Bank Remains On Hold But Sends First Timid Signals Of Reduced Hawkishness

Flash Review: Norges Bank Remains On Hold But Sends First Timid Signals Of Reduced Hawkishness

Flash Review: ECB Marginally Raises The (Negative) Balance of Risks And Launches Its Strategy Review

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By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani

23 January 2020

Flash Review: Bank of Canada Hints Again At Possible Easing Ahead

Flash Review: Norges Bank Remains On Hold But Sends First Timid Signals Of Reduced Hawkishness

Regional Elections To Send Shock Waves Through Italy’s Political System

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By Brunello Rosa

22 January 2020

Regional Elections To Send Shock Waves Through Italy’s Political System

Flash Review: Norges Bank Remains On Hold But Sends First Timid Signals Of Reduced Hawkishness

Regional Elections To Send Shock Waves Through Italy’s Political System

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By Brunello Rosa

22 January 2020

December 2019 - January 2020

Flash Review: BoJ Remains on Hold With An Easing Bias, While Revising Down Its Inflation Outlook

Flash Review: BoJ Remains on Hold With An Easing Bias, While Revising Down Its Inflation Outlook

Flash Review: BoJ Remains on Hold With An Easing Bias, While Revising Down Its Inflation Outlook

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By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani

21 January 2020

Flash Preview: ECB On Hold As Downside Risks Modestly Fade, While Launching The Strategic Review

Flash Review: BoJ Remains on Hold With An Easing Bias, While Revising Down Its Inflation Outlook

Flash Review: BoJ Remains on Hold With An Easing Bias, While Revising Down Its Inflation Outlook

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By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

20 January 2020

Flash Preview: Bank of Japan To Keep Its Cool And Let Fiscal Policy Do The Heavy-Lifting

Flash Review: BoJ Remains on Hold With An Easing Bias, While Revising Down Its Inflation Outlook

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold In January, While Keeping Its Modest Hiking Bias

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By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

17 January 2020

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold In January, While Keeping Its Modest Hiking Bias

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold In January, While Keeping Its Modest Hiking Bias

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold In January, While Keeping Its Modest Hiking Bias

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By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 January 2020

Getting Ready For The Brexit “Adjustment”

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold In January, While Keeping Its Modest Hiking Bias

Flash Preview: As The Economy Stabilises, Bank of Canada Remains on Hold

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By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 January 2020

Flash Preview: As The Economy Stabilises, Bank of Canada Remains on Hold

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold In January, While Keeping Its Modest Hiking Bias

Flash Preview: As The Economy Stabilises, Bank of Canada Remains on Hold

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by Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani

17 January 2020

Bank of England Moving Closer To Cutting Rates

Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead

US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead - An Update On The Conflict And Its Implications

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By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini


16 January 2020

US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead - An Update On The Conflict And Its Implications

Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead

US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead - An Update On The Conflict And Its Implications

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By Nouriel Roubini and Giorgio Cafiero


8 January 2020

Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead

Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead

Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa, Fawaz Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani

19 December 2019

Flash Central Bank Review: Riksbank Brings The Repo Rate Back To Zero, And Signals A Long Pause

Flash Central Bank Review: Riksbank Brings The Repo Rate Back To Zero, And Signals A Long Pause

Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa and Karmen Meneses


19 December 2019

2020 GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND ASSET ALLOCATION - Despite The Improved Outlook, Beware of The Cracks

Flash Central Bank Review: Riksbank Brings The Repo Rate Back To Zero, And Signals A Long Pause

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ PREVIEW: Bank of Japan to Stay on Hold, as Global Headwinds Are Lessened

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by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa, Alessandro Magnoli 

16 December 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ PREVIEW: Bank of Japan to Stay on Hold, as Global Headwinds Are Lessened

Flash Central Bank Review: Riksbank Brings The Repo Rate Back To Zero, And Signals A Long Pause

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ PREVIEW: Bank of Japan to Stay on Hold, as Global Headwinds Are Lessened

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa


16 December 2019

December 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Preview: Riksbank To Normalise Rates Before A Long Pause

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Preview: Riksbank To Normalise Rates Before A Long Pause

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Preview: Riksbank To Normalise Rates Before A Long Pause

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by Brunello Rosa

13 December 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain on Pause In December, And For Some Time

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Preview: Riksbank To Normalise Rates Before A Long Pause

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Preview: Riksbank To Normalise Rates Before A Long Pause

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by Brunello Rosa

13 December 2019

UK Election, Brexit and BoE Update: Johnson’s Landslide Victory Opens The Gates To Brexit

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Preview: Riksbank To Normalise Rates Before A Long Pause

UK Election, Brexit and BoE Update: Johnson’s Landslide Victory Opens The Gates To Brexit

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 by Brunello Rosa

13 December 2019

Flash Review: Swiss National Bank On Hold, With An Easing Bias

Flash Review: Dovish Fed Pledges To Stay On Hold During 2020 Electoral Year

UK Election, Brexit and BoE Update: Johnson’s Landslide Victory Opens The Gates To Brexit

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by Brunello Rosa

12 December 2019

Flash Review: “Owl-ish” Lagarde Plays It Safe At First ECB Presser

Flash Review: Dovish Fed Pledges To Stay On Hold During 2020 Electoral Year

Flash Review: Dovish Fed Pledges To Stay On Hold During 2020 Electoral Year

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by Brunello Rosa

12 December 2019

Flash Review: Dovish Fed Pledges To Stay On Hold During 2020 Electoral Year

Flash Review: Dovish Fed Pledges To Stay On Hold During 2020 Electoral Year

Flash Review: Dovish Fed Pledges To Stay On Hold During 2020 Electoral Year

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by Brunello Rosa

12 December 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: SNB Likely To Hold Off, For Now

ECB PREVIEW: All Attention Will Be On Lagarde’s First Press Conference

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: SNB Likely To Hold Off, For Now

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by Brunello Rosa, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Al Mughrabi

10 December 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Preview: Managing The Pause

ECB PREVIEW: All Attention Will Be On Lagarde’s First Press Conference

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: SNB Likely To Hold Off, For Now

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa


9 December 2019

ECB PREVIEW: All Attention Will Be On Lagarde’s First Press Conference

ECB PREVIEW: All Attention Will Be On Lagarde’s First Press Conference

US-China Phase-1 Deal Likely To Be Completed Soon, Strategic Rivalry Likely To Increase Over Time

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini


6 December 2019

US-China Phase-1 Deal Likely To Be Completed Soon, Strategic Rivalry Likely To Increase Over Time

US-China Phase-1 Deal Likely To Be Completed Soon, Strategic Rivalry Likely To Increase Over Time

US-China Phase-1 Deal Likely To Be Completed Soon, Strategic Rivalry Likely To Increase Over Time

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By Nouriel Roubini

6 December 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Winter Is Coming For Europe’s Wobbly Coalitions

US-China Phase-1 Deal Likely To Be Completed Soon, Strategic Rivalry Likely To Increase Over Time

Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, With No Particular Bias

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by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa

5 December 2019

Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, With No Particular Bias

US-China Phase-1 Deal Likely To Be Completed Soon, Strategic Rivalry Likely To Increase Over Time

Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, With No Particular Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

4 December 2019

December - November 2019

Flash Review: RBA Remains on Hold, With A Clear Easing Bias

Flash Preview: RBA To Remain On Hold In December, While Remaining Dovish

Flash Preview: RBA To Remain On Hold In December, While Remaining Dovish

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by Brunello Rosa

3 December 2019

Flash Preview: RBA To Remain On Hold In December, While Remaining Dovish

Flash Preview: RBA To Remain On Hold In December, While Remaining Dovish

Flash Preview: RBA To Remain On Hold In December, While Remaining Dovish

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by Brunello Rosa

29 November 2019

Flash Preview: BoC To Remain On Hold, With Some Risk of Easing

Flash Preview: RBA To Remain On Hold In December, While Remaining Dovish

Six ‘Grey Swan’ Events Could Hit The Global Economy And Markets In 2020

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 by Brunello Rosa

29 November 2019

Six ‘Grey Swan’ Events Could Hit The Global Economy And Markets In 2020

Helicopter Drops of Money: Pros & Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump

Six ‘Grey Swan’ Events Could Hit The Global Economy And Markets In 2020

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani 

28 November 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Fed’s Policy Into 2020-21: Lower For Longer?

Helicopter Drops of Money: Pros & Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump

Helicopter Drops of Money: Pros & Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump

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by Nouriel Roubini 

and Brunello Rosa

15 November 2019

Helicopter Drops of Money: Pros & Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump

Helicopter Drops of Money: Pros & Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump

Helicopter Drops of Money: Pros & Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa


13 November 2019

november 2019

Flash Review: RBNZ Remains On Hold, But Is Prepared to Ease More If Needed

Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years

Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years

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by Brunello Rosa

13 November 2019

Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years

Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years

Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years

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by Luca Bandello and Brunello Rosa

8 November 2019

Flash Preview: We Expect The RBNZ To Cut Rates in November

Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years

BOE: MPC Splits But Remains On Hold, While Signalling Possible Cuts Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa

8 November 2019

BOE: MPC Splits But Remains On Hold, While Signalling Possible Cuts Ahead

Review: RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Reiterates Its Forward Guidance And Is Prepared To Ease More

BOE: MPC Splits But Remains On Hold, While Signalling Possible Cuts Ahead

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By Brunello Rosa

7 November 2019

Review: RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Reiterates Its Forward Guidance And Is Prepared To Ease More

Review: RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Reiterates Its Forward Guidance And Is Prepared To Ease More

Review: RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Reiterates Its Forward Guidance And Is Prepared To Ease More

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by Brunello Rosa

5 November 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Bank of England To Remain in Wait–And–See Mode Before The General Election

Review: RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Reiterates Its Forward Guidance And Is Prepared To Ease More

Review: RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Reiterates Its Forward Guidance And Is Prepared To Ease More

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by Brunello Rosa

1 November 2019

October - november 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: Reserve Bank of Australia to Stay On Hold In November

Review: BoJ Remains On Hold, But Changes Forward Guidance To Signal Higher Readiness To Ease Policy

Review: BoJ Remains On Hold, But Changes Forward Guidance To Signal Higher Readiness To Ease Policy

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by Brunello Rosa

1 November 2019

Review: BoJ Remains On Hold, But Changes Forward Guidance To Signal Higher Readiness To Ease Policy

Review: BoJ Remains On Hold, But Changes Forward Guidance To Signal Higher Readiness To Ease Policy

Review: BoJ Remains On Hold, But Changes Forward Guidance To Signal Higher Readiness To Ease Policy

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by Brunello Rosa

31 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Review: Federal Reserve Cuts Rates And Signals A Pause

Review: BoJ Remains On Hold, But Changes Forward Guidance To Signal Higher Readiness To Ease Policy

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, But With A Clear Easing Bias

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by Brunello Rosa 

30 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, But With A Clear Easing Bias

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, But With A Clear Easing Bias

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, But With A Clear Easing Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

30 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Preview: A 25-bps Rate Cut, And a Likely Pause After

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, But With A Clear Easing Bias

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Preview: A 25-bps Rate Cut, And a Likely Pause After

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

28 October 2019

Resilient Economy And Expected Easier Fiscal Stance Give BoC Time To Weigh Its Options

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, But With A Clear Easing Bias

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Preview: A 25-bps Rate Cut, And a Likely Pause After

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By Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac

25 October 2019

OCTOBER 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Preview: BoJ Mulls Policy Stimulus In October

ECB Review: Draghi Downplays Governing Council Infighting At Farewell Presser

ECB Review: Draghi Downplays Governing Council Infighting At Farewell Presser

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

25 October 2019

ECB Review: Draghi Downplays Governing Council Infighting At Farewell Presser

ECB Review: Draghi Downplays Governing Council Infighting At Farewell Presser

ECB Review: Draghi Downplays Governing Council Infighting At Farewell Presser

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by Brunello Rosa

24 October 2019

Review: The Riksbank Signals A Long Pause After The December “Probable” Hike

ECB Review: Draghi Downplays Governing Council Infighting At Farewell Presser

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Review: Norges Bank Remains On Pause and Mildly Hawkish

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by Brunello Rosa

24 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Review: Norges Bank Remains On Pause and Mildly Hawkish

Oil Outlook In 2020-21: In Absence Of Supply Shocks, Faltering Global Demand Will Dampen Oil Prices

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Review: Norges Bank Remains On Pause and Mildly Hawkish

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by Brunello Rosa

24 October 2019

Oil Outlook In 2020-21: In Absence Of Supply Shocks, Faltering Global Demand Will Dampen Oil Prices

Oil Outlook In 2020-21: In Absence Of Supply Shocks, Faltering Global Demand Will Dampen Oil Prices

Oil Outlook In 2020-21: In Absence Of Supply Shocks, Faltering Global Demand Will Dampen Oil Prices

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By Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani

23 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - ECB PREVIEW: Acknowledging Dissent During Draghi’s Farewell Council Meeting

Oil Outlook In 2020-21: In Absence Of Supply Shocks, Faltering Global Demand Will Dampen Oil Prices

Oil Outlook In 2020-21: In Absence Of Supply Shocks, Faltering Global Demand Will Dampen Oil Prices

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by Brunello Rosa

22 October 2019

Preview: Riksbank Remains On Hold, While Keeping Its Hiking Bias

POLICY COMPASS: Brexit Negotiations Continue Amid Increasing Uncertainty

Preview: Riksbank Remains On Hold, While Keeping Its Hiking Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

21 October 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Stay On Hold With No Hiking Bias

POLICY COMPASS: Brexit Negotiations Continue Amid Increasing Uncertainty

Preview: Riksbank Remains On Hold, While Keeping Its Hiking Bias

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By Brunello Rosa

18 October 2019

POLICY COMPASS: Brexit Negotiations Continue Amid Increasing Uncertainty

POLICY COMPASS: Brexit Negotiations Continue Amid Increasing Uncertainty

Russia and The EU: The Geo-Strategic Implications of The Nord Stream-2 Gas Pipeline

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by Brunello Rosa

16 October 2019

Russia and The EU: The Geo-Strategic Implications of The Nord Stream-2 Gas Pipeline

Russia and The EU: The Geo-Strategic Implications of The Nord Stream-2 Gas Pipeline

Russia and The EU: The Geo-Strategic Implications of The Nord Stream-2 Gas Pipeline

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By Paul Martin

15 October 2019

EU Update: A Challenging Start For The “Geopolitical Commission”

Russia and The EU: The Geo-Strategic Implications of The Nord Stream-2 Gas Pipeline

ITALY Update: Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority

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by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa

11 October 2019

ITALY Update: Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority

Russia and The EU: The Geo-Strategic Implications of The Nord Stream-2 Gas Pipeline

ITALY Update: Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority

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by Brunello Rosa

4 October 2019

September - october 2019

Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income

Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income

Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income

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by Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani

3 October 2019 

Flash Review: RBA Cuts Rates And Signals Further Easing Ahead

Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income

Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income

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by Brunello Rosa

1 October 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again

Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income

Brexit Update: Despite The Constitutional Crisis, Boris Johnson Remains The Most Popular Leader

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

27 September 2019

Brexit Update: Despite The Constitutional Crisis, Boris Johnson Remains The Most Popular Leader

POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring

Brexit Update: Despite The Constitutional Crisis, Boris Johnson Remains The Most Popular Leader

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by Brunello Rosa 

26 September 2019

POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring

POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring

POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring

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by N. Roubini and A. Magnoli Bocchi 

23 September 2019

Review: SNB Reviews Negative Rates Regime And Moves Closer To An Easier Policy Stance

POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring

POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring

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By Brunello Rosa

19 September 2019 

september 2019

Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates Once More Before A Pause

Fed Review: A Divided FOMC Cuts Rates, But Is Less Dovish Than Markets Expected

Flash Review: BoJ On Hold, Getting Ready To Ease Policy In October

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By Brunello Rosa

19 September 2019

Flash Review: BoJ On Hold, Getting Ready To Ease Policy In October

Fed Review: A Divided FOMC Cuts Rates, But Is Less Dovish Than Markets Expected

Flash Review: BoJ On Hold, Getting Ready To Ease Policy In October

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By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

19 September 2019

Fed Review: A Divided FOMC Cuts Rates, But Is Less Dovish Than Markets Expected

Fed Review: A Divided FOMC Cuts Rates, But Is Less Dovish Than Markets Expected

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities

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by Brunello Rosa

18 September 2019

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities

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by Giorgio Cafiero

17 September 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Keeping the Powder (Mostly) Dry

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities

FED PREVIEW: A 25bps Cut In September, With the Door Open to More Cuts Later On

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by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli

17 September 2019

FED PREVIEW: A 25bps Cut In September, With the Door Open to More Cuts Later On

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities

FED PREVIEW: A 25bps Cut In September, With the Door Open to More Cuts Later On

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by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli

16 September 2019

August - september 2019

Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates

Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates

Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates

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By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli 

13 September 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Weigh Its Options In September

Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates

Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

13 September 2019

ECB REVIEW: ECB Delivers A Low-Intensity, Open-Ended Easing Program

Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates

ECB REVIEW: ECB Delivers A Low-Intensity, Open-Ended Easing Program

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By Brunello Rosa

12 September 2019

ECB PREVIEW: ECB’s Easing Package May Be Smaller Than Expected

TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization

ECB REVIEW: ECB Delivers A Low-Intensity, Open-Ended Easing Program

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

6 September 2019

BOC, RBA and Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With A Dovish Bias

TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization

TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa 

30 August 2019

TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization

TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization

TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization

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by A. Bocchi and Farah Aladsani

29 August 2019

August 2019

Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging

Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging

Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging

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 by Brunello Rosa

29 August 2019

ECB View Update: A Larger Stimulus Package For a More Severe Economic Slowdown

Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging

Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging

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by B. Rosa, N. Roubini and F. Panelli

23 August 2019

MEXICO: Deteriorating Macroeconomic Outlook Amid Policy Uncertainty

Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging

Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa 

22 August 2019

Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty

Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty

Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty

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by Brunello Rosa

21 August 2019

Negative Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Response

Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty

Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth

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by Nouriel Roubini

20 August 2019

Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth

Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty

Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth

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by Francesca Panelli

16 August 2019


Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Risk Of Escalation

Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election

Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election

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by G. Cafiero, N. Roubini, B. Rosa

14 August 2019

Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election

Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election

Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election

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by  Brunello Rosa

9 August 2019

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold, But Still Open To Future Hikes

Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold, But Still Open To Future Hikes

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by Brunello Rosa

9 August 2019

Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing

Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold, But Still Open To Future Hikes

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by Brunello Rosa

7 August 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ to Cut Rates in August

Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing

Flash Review: BOE Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged And Awaits Brexit Outcome

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

2 August 2019

Flash Review: BOE Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged And Awaits Brexit Outcome

Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing

Flash Review: BOE Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged And Awaits Brexit Outcome

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by Brunello Rosa

1 August 2019

July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut

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by Brunello Rosa

31 July 2019

Review: A Cautious BOJ Stays Put, But Signals Readiness To Ease If Economic Conditions Worsen

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut

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by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli

30 July 2019

Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In September

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut

Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In September

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by N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

29 July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions

Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In September

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by A. Waters, B. Rosa, Nouriel Roubini

26 July 2019

Review: ECB Prepares To Deliver Fresh Stimulus Package In September

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions

Impact Of Trade, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies

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by Brunello Rosa

25 July 2019

Impact Of Trade, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions

Impact Of Trade, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies

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by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi

24 July 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: ECB Getting Ready To Deliver More Easing In September

RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture

RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture

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by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters, F. Panelli

19 July 2019

RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture

RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture

RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture

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 by Rémi Bourgeot and Brunello Rosa

17 July 2019

POLICY COMPASS - Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months

RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture

POLICY COMPASS - Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

12 July 2019

Flash Review: Bank of Canada Now On Hold, Ready To Go Either Way

Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

POLICY COMPASS - Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months

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by Brunello Rosa

10 July 2019

Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

9 July 2019

BoC Preview: Balancing Global Headwinds with Domestic Resilience

Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

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by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa

5 July 2019

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