Independent Research

Disruptive Ideas

Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views

Policy Compass

Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments

Monetary Affairs

Our take on the actions and decisions of global central banks

Travel Notes

Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs

Market Views

Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views

Macro Picture

Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events

recent research papers

The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

20 September 2018

TRAVEL NOTES: Focus on Italy’s First “Populist” Budget

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 September 2018

Review: ECB Buys Time (Again) On Re-Investment Policy

by Brunello Rosa

13 September 2018

ECB PREVIEW: Still Waiting For Re-Investment Policy Details

by Brunello Rosa

11 September 2018

EM Global Tremors: Central Banks’ Different Strategies to Defend Their Currencies

by Rémi Bourgeot

4 September 2018

August 2018

DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego, Damiano Terziotti

30 August 2018

Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed

by Nouriel Roubini

23 August 2018

MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

21 August 2018

TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline

by Nouriel Roubini

14 August 2018

TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising

by Nouriel Roubini

9 August 2018

CENTRAL BANK REVIEW: BOE Ends Up Delivering A Dovish Hike

by Brunello Rosa

2 August 2018

July 2018

PREVIEW: BoJ Unlikely To Change Its Policy Regime Apart From Minor Tweaks

by Nouriel Roubini

27 July 2018

PREVIEW: BOE Finds A Window To Slot In a Rate Hike

by Brunello Rosa

27 July 2018

ECB Review: Details On Reinvestment Policy to Come After the Summer

by Brunello Rosa

26 July 2018

Emerging Markets Outlook: Rising Risks, Fragility Ahead

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana

24 July 2018                       

ECB PREVIEW: Focus on Re-Investment Policy

by Brunello Rosa

20 July 2018

MARKET VIEWS: Yield Curve “Near-Inversion” Does Not Imply U.S. Recession

by Brunello Rosa

13 July 2018

June-July 2018

BOC Review: Hike Now, and on a Half-Yearly Basis

by Joseph Shupac 

and Brunello Rosa  

12 July 2018 

PREVIEW: BOC Set to Raise Rates, But No Longer Certain to Signal Further Hikes

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa  

6 July 2018 

TRAVEL NOTES - France: Europe’s (Temporary) Bright Spot

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

4 July 2018 

IRAN: Mismanagement and International Tensions Stifle a Great Potential

by Rémi Bourgeot

29 June 2018 

Rising Risks in Emerging Markets From Decline in Global Liquidity

By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana

26 June 2018

MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOE After June MPC and Mansion House Speech

by Brunello Rosa

22 June 2018

June 2018

ITALY: New Government to Be Initially Only Modestly Confrontational with Europe

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

20 June 2018

ECB Indicates End of QE and Beginning of Rates Guidance


Brunello Rosa

14 June 2018

FED REVIEW: Fed Delivers A Hawkish Hike


Brunello Rosa

13 June 2018

FED PREVIEW Hike in June Done Deal, Four Hikes in 2018 Not Yet

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

11 June 18

ECB PREVIEW: Discussion on QE Extension to Begin in June, But No Rush to Decide

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 June 2018 

TRAVEL NOTES: UK Post-Brexit Customs Options Mask Deeper Choices

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

6 June 2018

TRAVEL NOTES: Germany Remains Cautious On Further Eurozone Integration

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

5 June 2018

TRAVEL NOTES - China: Reforms and Rebalancing to Remain Gradual

by Nouriel Roubini

4 June 2018

TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter

by Alessandro Magnoli and Pablo Gallego  - 1 June 2018

May 2018

TRAVEL NOTES: RUSSIA - Putin to Continue Inward-Oriented Economic Policies

by Nouriel Roubini

29 May 2018

GERMANY: An Economic Powerhouse Trying to Revive the Political Centre Ground

by Rémi Bourgeot 

and Brunello Rosa

23 May 2018

ARGENTINA: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election

by Brunello Rosa and Renata Bossini

18 May 2018

BOE Stays on Hold and Remains Data Dependent


Brunello Rosa

10 May 2018

BOE To Remain on Hold in May (And Even a Hike in August Is Not A Done Deal)


Brunello Rosa

4 May 2018

Oil Prices in 2018-20: Unlikely To Hamper Global Growth Likely To Support Oil-Related Assets

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana  

3 May 2018

US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?


Nouriel Roubini

2 May 2018

April 2018

Riksbank Pushes Back The Timing of First Rate Hike

by Brunello Rosa

26 April 2018

TRAVEL NOTES FROM ITALY: Short-Term Resilience, Long-Term Fragility

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

24 April 2018

Riksbank: Time to Push Back the Repo Rate Path


Brunello Rosa 

23 April 2018

BOE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties


Brunello Rosa 

and Nouriel Roubini

20 April 2018

BoJ Unlikely To Change Policy or Communication Until 2019 Amid Economic and Political Uncertainties

By Nouriel Roubini 

18 April 2018

ECB to Gradually Exit QE by Year-end

by Brunello Rosa 

and Nouriel Roubini 

17 April 2018

US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact

By Francisco Quintana 

and Pablo  Gallego Cuervo

16 April  2018

BOC Preview: Cautious BOC To Stay on Hold In April


Jospeh Shupac  and Brunello Rosa

13 April 2018

March 2018

Asset Alocation Update: Cautious Risk Exposure With Defensive Positioning

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

and Francisco Quintana 

29 March 2018

Brexit: Transition Deal, Trade Agreements and Risks of a Cliff-Edge into WTO

By Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Renata Bossini 

28 March 2018

Russia: An Impressive Normalisation Towards Modest Growth

By Rémi Bourgeot

23 March 2018

Fed Review: Fed Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Hike

by Brunello Rosa 

22 March 2018

Fed Preview March 2018: A “Relatively Hawkish” Hike

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

19 March 2018

India: Rising Macro Headwinds In Spite of Recent Pick-Up in Growth

By Nouriel Roubini

13 March 2018

ECB Drops Easing Bias Amid Dovish Press Conference

by Brunello Rosa

8 March 2018

BOC Preview: On Hold Given Negative Economic Surprises

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa

6 March 2018

ECB’s Dilemma: Euro Strength vs Removing the Easing Bias

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

2 March 2018

February 2018

Monetary Policy in the Medium-Term: Tighter Stance, Expanded Toolkit

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi 

and Francisco Quintana

23 February 2018

Volatility and Inflation Fears Likely to Continue Weighing on Markets

 by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

14 February 2018

Riskbank Review: On Hold, With A Dovish Tilt

by Brunello Rosa

14 February 2018

Q&A on FOMC Composition and Fed’s Policy Regime

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

13 February 2018

Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With a Dovish Bias

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

12 February 2018

BoE Delivers Hawkish Inflation Report

by Brunello Rosa

8 February 2018

Turkey: Muddling Through Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Challenges

by Rémi Bourgeot 

7 February 2018

Italian Elections: Uncertainty and Complacency Abound

by Brunello Rosa

6 February 2018

BOE Preview February 2018: On Hold, But Alert

by Brunello Rosa

2 February 2018

January 2018

China: In a Slow Transition, No Hard-landing But a Bumpy Road Ahead

 by Francisco Quintana

30 January 2018

Fed Preview: On Hold in January, Door Open in March

by Brunello Rosa

26 January 2018

ECB Review: Strong Euro at the Forefront of ECB’s Attention

by Brunello Rosa

25 January 2018

ECB Preview: Taking Stock of the Strong Euro

by Brunello Rosa

22 January 2018

The European “Musical Chairs” Game Has Just Begun

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 January 2018

Canada: Strong Cyclical Growth, But Structural Challenges Lie Ahead

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa

11 January 2018

Western Balkans: Still Many Obstacles to EU Accession

by Arlind Rama and Brunello Rosa

by 9 January 2018

Travel Notes: Will Macron Succeed in Reforming France?

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

3 January 2018