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Independent Research
Disruptive Ideas
Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views
Policy Compass
Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments
Travel Notes
Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs
Market Views
Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views
Macro Picture
Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events
RESEARCH BY REGION - COUNTRY - THEME
recent research papers
Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth
by Francesca Panelli
16 August 2019
August 2019
Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Risk Of Escalation
by G. Cafiero, N. Roubini, B. Rosa
14 August 2019
Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election
by Brunello Rosa
9 August 2019
Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold, But Still Open To Future Hikes
by Brunello Rosa
9 August 2019
Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing
by Brunello Rosa
7 August 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ to Cut Rates in August
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
2 August 2019
Flash Review: BOE Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged And Awaits Brexit Outcome
by Brunello Rosa
1 August 2019
July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut
by Brunello Rosa
31 July 2019
Review: A Cautious BOJ Stays Put, But Signals Readiness To Ease If Economic Conditions Worsen
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
30 July 2019
Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In September
by N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
29 July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions
by A. Waters, Brunello Rosa, Nouriel Roubini
26 July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: ECB Prepares To Deliver Fresh Stimulus Package In September
by Brunello Rosa
25 July 2019
Impact Of Trade Tensions, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Farah Aladsani Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi
24 July 2019
ECB PREVIEW: Getting Ready To Deliver More Easing In September
by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters, F. Panelli
19 July 2019
RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture
by Rémi Bourgeot and Brunello Rosa
17 July 2019
Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
12 July 2019
Flash Review: Bank of Canada Now On Hold, Ready To Go Either Way
by Brunello Rosa
10 July 2019
Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
9 July 2019
BoC Preview: Balancing Global Headwinds with Domestic Resilience
by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa
5 July 2019
JUNE - JULY 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS: G10 Central Banks Preparing For Their Easing Moves
by Brunello Rosa
4 July 2019
EU: The End Of The Musical Chairs Game Delivers A Fragile Political Equilibrium
by Brunello Rosa
3 July 2019
Flash Review: Riksbank Remains Cautious And Leaves Outlook Unchanged
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
3 July 2019
RBA Cuts Rates for a Second Month in a Row, With The Possibility Of More Easing Ahead
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
2 July 2019
Tactical Risk-On In The Liquid Space, While Keeping Focus On Capital Preservation
By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani
1 July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Preview: Riksbank To Remain Prudently Dovish
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
28 June 2019
JUNE 2019
Japan Election Update: Risk of Double Election Remains Despite Abe’s Dismissal
by Alex Waters
27 June 2019
POLICY COMPASS: EU Musical Chairs’ Battle At The Center of the EU Council Meeting
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
20 June 2019
Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates and Hints At More Hikes in 2019
by Brunello Rosa
20 June 2019
REVIEW: Fed Moves To Easing Bias As It Stands Ready To Cut Rates In H2
by Brunello Rosa
19 June 2019
Italy Update: Preparing For Fiscal Battles With The EU, Amid Domestic Political Turmoil
By Brunello Rosa
19 June 2019
POLICY COMPASS: No-Deal Hard Brexit Is Still A Low-Probability Scenario
By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
18 June 2019
PREVIEW: Fed To Stay On Hold But Leave Wide Open the Option of Forthcoming Rate Cuts
By N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
17 June 2019
Preview: Norges Bank Set To Increase Rates In Spite Of Dovish Fed and ECB
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
14 June 2019
US-China Ahead: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War
by Nouriel Roubini
14 June 2019
MARKET VIEWS - Fasten Your Seatbelts: Financial Markets’ Review and Outlook
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi
14 June 2019
The SNB Introduces A New Policy Rate (and Claims To Have Space To Ease)
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
13 June 2019
MAY - JUNE 2019
US Inflation: Several Factors Dampening Structural Upward Pressures
by Francesca Panelli
13 June 2019
Review: ECB Is Not As Dovish As The Market Expected, But Is Ready To Ease
by Brunello Rosa
6 June 2019
MACRO PICTURE - Argentina: Elections To Test The Austerity Measures
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Lapo Fioretti
5 June 2019
Review: RBA Cuts Its Cash Rate Due to Uncertainty On The Global Outlook
By Alex Waters
4 June 2019
ECB Preview: Don’t Expect Too Much Substance, But Still a Dovish Tone
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
3 June 2019
MACRO PICTURE - USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations
By Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Giorgio Cafiero
23 May 2019
MAY 2019
US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth and Fed’s Monetary Policy
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
16 May 2019
MARKET VIEWS - Lebanon: An ‘Unstable Equilibrium’ Supported By Capital Inflows
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi
14 May 2019
FLASH REVIEW: Norges Bank Surprises Markets And Signals A Rate Hike In June
by Brunello Rosa
9 May 2019
FRANCE: The Social Crisis Lingers, While European Alliances Are Being Questioned
by Rémi Bourgeot
9 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: RBNZ Is The First G10 Central Bank to Cut Rates In This Cycle
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
8 May 2019
TRAVEL NOTES - CHINA: Growth Is Stabilizing at the Cost of Renewed Financial Imbalances
by Nouriel Roubini
7 May 2019
APRIL - MAY 2019
RBA Review: Cash Rate Held Steady, Labour Market Key to Rate Outlook
By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
7 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ Seen Cutting Rates in May
by Brunello Rosa
3 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - RBA PREVIEW: A Rate Cut Is On The Table
By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
3 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Remains Patiently Dovish, But No Rate Cuts In Sight
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
1 May 2019
Preview: Fed Still Patient, With Rate Cuts Considered Only If Outlook Worsens
by Nouriel Roubini and Alex Waters
29 April 2019
Review: Ultra-Dovish Riksbank Lowers Its Repo Rate Path And Extends QE to End-2020
by Brunello Rosa
25 April 2019
APRIL 2019
Review: The BoJ Re-Commits to Its Current Policy Framework by Updating Its Forward Guidance
by Alex Waters
25 April 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Bank Of Canada Removes Its Tightening Bias
by Brunello Rosa
24 April 2019
MACRO PICTURE - Brazil: The Pension Reform Is The Crucial Test For Bolsonaro
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Farah Aladsani
24 April 2019
The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If The Shock to EZ is Mild)
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
23 April 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold, For Now
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
19 April 2019
Bank of Japan Preview: BoJ In Wait-And-See Mode as Global Headwinds May Fade
by Alex Waters and Nouriel Roubini
19 April 2019
ECB Review Assessing The Policy Stance Ahead Of Further Possible Action
by Brunello Rosa
10 April 2019
JAPAN: Monetary and Fiscal Easing Space Is Available In A Downside Scenario
by Nouriel Roubini
10 April 2019
ECB PREVIEW: Policy on Hold. No Tiering Yet and TLTRO Details to Be Decided Over Time
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
8 April 2019
ECB Is Mulling Reserve Tiering, But It Has Not Made Up Its Mind Yet
by Brunello Rosa
8 April 2019
Spain: Steady Economic Growth Threatened By Political Uncertainty
by Lapo Fioretti and Brunello Rosa
3 April 2019
MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War
By A. Waters, Brunello Rosa, Nouriel Roubini
2 April 2019
March 2019
ASSET ALLOCATION: Maintain A Defensive Risk Profile, Focus On Capital Preservation
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
29 March 2019
Review: RBNZ Prepares For a Rate Cut (And Puts Pressure On RBA To Shift Risk Balance)
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
28 March 2019
Changes In Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools And Communication Policy
by Nouriel Roubini
25 March 2019
Review: Hawkish Norges Bank Raises Rates and Signals Another Hike Within Six Months
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
21 March 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Delivers Another Dovish Surprise
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
20 March 2019
Preview: Norges Bank To Hike In March and Signal Another Hike in 2019
by Alex Waters
15 march 2019
Fed Preview: Extended Pause Highly Likely and Treasuries Runoff to End This Year
By N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters
14 March 2019
MARKET VIEWS - EM Currencies: The Fed’s Pause Provides Short-Term Support
by Rémi Bourgeot
13 March 2019
POLICY COMPASS - Japan: A General Election In July Is A Risk in A Politically Hectic 2019
by Alex Waters
12 March 2019
Italy Update : The Economic Recession Worsens The Political Landscape (And Vice-Versa)
by Brunello Rosa
11 March 2019
MACRO PICTURE - EU Update: Awaiting The Populist Tsunami
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
8 March 2019
February - March 2019
MACRO PICTURE; Venezuela’s Complicated Transition
by L. Fioretti, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
7 March 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS: Reviewing DNB’s Reaction Function To Defend The Currency Peg
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
5 March 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - CENTRAL BANK PREVIEW: BOC Likely To Pause For Longer
by Alex Waters, J. Shupac and Brunello Rosa
2 March 2019
MARKET VIEWS: A Fed Collar” Is Likely To Support The Markets In H1-2019
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
27 February 2019
February 2019
PREVIEW: Change In Forward Guidance and New (T)LTRO Coming, Given Downside Risks
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
21 February 2019
SNB: Rising Global and Domestic Risks To Fight With Little Policy Ammunition
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
20 February 2019
RBA Jumps on The Dovish Bandwagon, While RBNZ Still Sits On The Fence
by Alex Waters
19 February 2019
Germany's Economic and Political Uncertainties Are Rising
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
14 February 2019
Brexit Update: Getting to A Deal (One Way or Another)
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
13 February 2019
January - February 2019
POLICY COMPASS -The Rise of the Populist International: European Dis-Integration Ahead?
by Brunello Rosa and John Hulsman
6 February 2019
REVIEW: The Fed Takes A Sharp Break In the Hiking Cycle and Moves to a Strongly Dovish Stance
by Bruello Rosa
30 January 2019
POLICY COMPASS - PERSIAN GULF: Increased Polarisation and Power Fragmentation Ahead
by Cinzia Bianco
29 January 2019
Fed Preview: Opening The Door To A Pause In The Hiking Cycle
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
25 January 2019
The Future of Banking: Small is the New Big
by Alessandro Magnoli and Mert Yildiz
24 January 2019