Rosa & Roubini Associates

118 Pall Mall London SW1Y 5ED | +44(0)207 1010 718

Independent Research

Disruptive Ideas

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Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views

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Policy Compass

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Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments

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Monetary Affairs

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Our take on the actions and decisions of global central banks


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Travel Notes

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Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs

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Market Views

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Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views

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Macro Picture

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Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events

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RECENT RESEARCH PAPERS

US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth and Fed’s Monetary Policy

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa


16 May 2019

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MARKET VIEWS - Lebanon: An ‘Unstable Equilibrium’ Supported By Capital Inflows

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi

14 May 2019

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FLASH REVIEW: Norges Bank Surprises Markets And Signals A Rate Hike In June

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by Brunello Rosa


9 May 2019

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FRANCE: The Social Crisis Lingers, While European Alliances Are Being Questioned

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by  Rémi Bourgeot 


9 May 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: RBNZ Is The First G10 Central Bank to Cut Rates In This Cycle

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

8 May 2019

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TRAVEL NOTES - CHINA: Growth Is Stabilizing at the Cost of Renewed Financial Imbalances

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by Nouriel Roubini

7 May 2019

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APRIL - MAY 2019

MONETARY AFFAIRS-RBA Review: Cash Rate Held Steady, Labour Market Key to Rate Outlook

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By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

7 May 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ Seen Cutting Rates in May

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by Brunello Rosa

3 May 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - RBA PREVIEW: A Rate Cut Is On The Table

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By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

3 May 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Remains Patiently Dovish, But No Rate Cuts In Sight

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

1 May 2019

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Preview: Fed Still Patient, With Rate Cuts Considered Only If Outlook Worsens

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by Nouriel Roubini and Alex Waters

29 April 2019

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Flash Review: Ultra-Dovish Riksbank Lowers Its Repo Rate Path And Extends QE to End-2020

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by Brunello Rosa

25 April 2019

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APRIL 2019

Review: The BoJ Re-Commits to Its Current Policy Framework by Updating Its Forward Guidance

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by Alex Waters 

25 April 2019

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Review: Bank Of Canada Removes Its Tightening Bias

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by Brunello Rosa

24 April 2019

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Brazil: The Pension Reform Is The Crucial Test For Bolsonaro

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi  Farah Aladsani

24 April 2019

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The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If The Shock to EZ is Mild)

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

23 April 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold, For Now

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

19 April 2019

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Bank of Japan Preview: BoJ In Wait-And-See Mode as Global Headwinds May Fade

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by Alex Waters and Nouriel Roubini

19 April 2019

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ECB Review Assessing The Policy Stance Ahead Of Further Possible Action

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by Brunello Rosa

10 April 2019

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JAPAN: Monetary and Fiscal Easing Space Is Available In A Downside Scenario

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by Nouriel Roubini

10 April 2019

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ECB PREVIEW: Policy on Hold. No Tiering Yet and TLTRO Details to Be Decided Over Time

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 April 2019

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ECB Is Mulling Reserve Tiering, But It Has Not Made Up Its Mind Yet

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by Brunello Rosa

8 April 2019

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Spain: Steady Economic Growth Threatened By Political Uncertainty

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by Lapo Fioretti and Brunello Rosa 

3 April 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War

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By A. Waters, Brunello Rosa, Nouriel Roubini

2 April 2019

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March 2019

ASSET ALLOCATION: Maintain A Defensive Risk Profile, Focus On Capital Preservation

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

29 March 2019

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Review: RBNZ Prepares For a Rate Cut (And Puts Pressure On RBA To Shift Risk Balance)

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

28 March 2019

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Changes In Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools And Communication Policy

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by Nouriel Roubini

25 March 2019

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Review: Hawkish Norges Bank Raises Rates and Signals Another Hike Within Six Months

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

21 March 2019

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Review: Fed Delivers Another Dovish Surprise

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters 

20 March 2019

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POLICY COMPASS - Brexit Update: Going To The Wires

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by Brunello Rosa

15 March 2019

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Preview: Norges Bank To Hike In March and Signal Another Hike in 2019

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by Alex Waters

15 march 2019

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Fed Preview: Extended Pause Highly Likely and Treasuries Runoff to End This Year

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By N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters

14 March 2019

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MARKET VIEWS - EM Currencies: The Fed’s Pause Provides Short-Term Support

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by Rémi Bourgeot

13 March 2019

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POLICY COMPASS - Japan: A General Election In July Is A Risk in A Politically Hectic 2019

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by Alex Waters

 12 March 2019

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Italy Update : The Economic Recession Worsens The Political Landscape (And Vice-Versa)

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by Brunello Rosa

11 March 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - EU Update: Awaiting The Populist Tsunami

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 March 2019

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February - March 2019

MACRO PICTURE; Venezuela’s Complicated Transition

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by L. Fioretti, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

7 March 2019

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Review: ECB Adds Monetary Accommodation

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by Brunello Rosa

7 March 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - REVIEW: Dovish BOC Signals A Long Pause

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by Brunello Rosa

6 March 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS: Reviewing DNB’s Reaction Function To Defend The Currency Peg

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

5 March 2019 

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - CENTRAL BANK PREVIEW: BOC Likely To Pause For Longer

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by Alex Waters, J. Shupac and Brunello Rosa 

2 March 2019

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MARKET VIEWS: A Fed Collar” Is Likely To Support The Markets In H1-2019

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

27 February 2019

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February 2019

PREVIEW: Change In Forward Guidance and New (T)LTRO Coming, Given Downside Risks

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

21 February 2019

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SNB: Rising Global and Domestic Risks To Fight With Little Policy Ammunition

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

20 February 2019

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RBA Jumps on The Dovish Bandwagon, While RBNZ Still Sits On The Fence

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by Alex Waters

19 February 2019

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TRAVEL NOTES - ITALY: Risks Re-Emerging After The Truce

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by Brunello Rosa 

15 February 2019

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Germany's Economic and Political Uncertainties Are Rising

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa 

14 February 2019

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Brexit Update: Getting to A Deal (One Way or Another)

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini 

13 February 2019

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January - February 2019

POLICY COMPASS -The Rise of the Populist International: European Dis-Integration Ahead?

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by Brunello Rosa and John Hulsman

6 February 2019

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REVIEW: The Fed Takes A Sharp Break In the Hiking Cycle and Moves to a Strongly Dovish Stance

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by Bruello Rosa

30 January 2019

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POLICY COMPASS - PERSIAN GULF: Increased Polarisation and Power Fragmentation Ahead

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by Cinzia Bianco

29 January 2019

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Fed Preview: Opening The Door To A Pause In The Hiking Cycle

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by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

25 January 2019

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ECB Twists Risks To The Growth Outlook To The Downside

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by Brunello Rosa

24 January 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - The Future of Banking: Small is the New Big

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by Alessandro Magnoli and Mert Yildiz

24 January 2019

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January 2019

Review: BoJ Lowers Inflation Projections and Remains On Auto-Pilot

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by Alex Waters

23 January 2018

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Norges Bank Preview: Waiting For March to Hike

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 Photo: Esten Borgos (from Norges Bank’s website)  

by Alex Waters

19 January 2018

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BoJ PREVIEW: A Stronger Yen May Cause Some Discomfort

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by Alex Waters 

17 January 2019

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DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: The Revenge of Demographics

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The Economic, Policy and Financial Implications  of Current Demographic Trends, by Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac

15 January 2019

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Turkey: Economic Stabilization After The March Local Elections

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi


11 January 2019

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REVIEW: BOC Remains On Hold, With Hawkish Undertones

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By Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac

9 January 2019

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DEcember 2018

PREVIEW: BoC Likely to Remain On Hold, While Sounding Upbeat

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by Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac

7 January 2019

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Riksbank Hikes its Policy Rate by 25bps

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters 

20 December 2018

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Reduces Expected Number of Rate Hikes in 2019

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters 

19 December 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES - France: Social Tensions Upend French and Eurozone Politics

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by Rémi Bourgeot

19 December 2018

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Global Outlook & Strategic Asset Allocation For 2019: Skating on Thinner Ice

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by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa 

and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

18 December 2018

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - PREVIEW: Fed to Signal Slower Pace of Policy Normalization

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by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and 

Nouriel Roubini

17 December 2018

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November - December 2018

RIKSBANK PREVIEW: Riksbank Likely To Wait Longer Before Lift-Off

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by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters

14 December 2018

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ECB REVIEW: ECB Confirms Its Policy Stance (With Few Details on Reinvestment)

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by Brunello Rosa 

13 December 2018

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MARKET VIEWS - Markets Buffeted By Tailwinds and Headwinds At Year-End

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by Alex Waters

7 December 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES-ITALY: Partially Caving In, Given Market and European Pressures

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by Brunello Rosa

5 December 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES - GERMANY: A Succession Drama at a Time of Economic Weakness

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by Rémi Bourgeot

4 December 2018

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ECB PREVIEW: We Do Not Expect A Radical Shift In Policy in December

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini 

30 November 2018

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November 2018

Oil Outlook 2019-20: Oil Prices’ Gradual Decline To Support Global Growth

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi 

and Francisco Quintana

26 November 2018

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China Preparing for A Possible Full-Scale Economic and Geopolitical Cold War

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by Nouriel Roubini

20 November 2018

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POLICY COMPASS - US 2018 Mid-Terms: An Election That Settled Nothing

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by John C. Hulsman

20 November 2018

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BOJ Still Far From A Shift In Policy Regime, But The Triggers For A Change Are Now Clearer

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by Nouriel Roubini 

8 November 2018

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In this “Final Rush,” Risks Remain That A Crisis Might Be Needed To Break the Brexit Impasse

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by Brunello Rosa 

and Nouriel Roubini

7 November 2018 

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Hedging The Risk of A Potential Emerging Markets Crisis

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi,

Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Francisco Quintana

2 November 2018

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October 2018

MONETARY AFFAIRS: ECB Review Rendez-Vous in December for All Decisions

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by Brunello Rosa

25 October 2018

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BOC Review: Trade Relief Ensures An Autumn Hike and Hawkish Tones

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by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa

24 October 2018

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - PREVIEW: ECB Likely To Buy More Time Before Committing

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by Brunello Rosa

22 october 2018

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American Mid-term elections: Verdict on the Trump Revolution

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John C. Hulsman  

17 October 2018

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MARKET VIEWS: A Healthy and Expected Market Sell-Off

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by Brunello Rosa


15 October 2018

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The Journey To the Next Recession and Financial Crisis in 2020 Has Already Begun

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

9 October 2018

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September - October 2018

SCENARIO ANALYSIS -ITALY: Walking A Dangerous Line

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by Brunello Rosa           


5 October 2018

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BRAZIL: Partisan Trench War Impedes a Huge Potential

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by Rémi Bourgeot


2 October 2018

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Italy’s “Populist” Budget Defies the EU, Markets And Rating Agencies

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by Brunello Rosa 

28 September 2018

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Divergence Between The U.S. And Other Countries Is Still Increasing

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By A. Magnoli Bocchi and F. Quintana         

27 September 2018

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Fed Hikes Rates and Drops “Accommodative” Stance

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by Brunello Rosa


27 September 2018

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PREVIEW: Fed Continues to Normalize At a Steady Pace

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by Brunello Rosa 

and Nouriel Roubini

24 September 2018

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September 2018

Norges Bank Begins Its Well-Telegraphed Tightening Cycle

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by Brunello Rosa

21 September 2018

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The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

20 September 2018

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TRAVEL NOTES: Focus on Italy’s First “Populist” Budget

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 September 2018

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Review: ECB Buys Time (Again) On Re-Investment Policy

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by Brunello Rosa


13 September 2018

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ECB PREVIEW: Still Waiting For Re-Investment Policy Details

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by Brunello Rosa


11 September 2018

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EM Global Tremors: Central Banks’ Different Strategies to Defend Their Currencies

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by Rémi Bourgeot

4 September 2018

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August 2018

DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego, Damiano Terziotti

30 August 2018

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Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed

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by Nouriel Roubini

23 August 2018

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MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

21 August 2018

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TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline

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by Nouriel Roubini

14 August 2018

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TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising

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by Nouriel Roubini

9 August 2018

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CENTRAL BANK REVIEW: BOE Ends Up Delivering A Dovish Hike

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by Brunello Rosa

2 August 2018

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FOR PAPERS PUBLISHED BEFORE JULY 2018 CLICK ON THE BUTTON AND GO TO THE RESEARCH ARCHIVE PAGE

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