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Independent Research
Disruptive Ideas
Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views
Policy Compass
Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments
Travel Notes
Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs
Market Views
Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views
Macro Picture
Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events
RESEARCH BY REGION - COUNTRY - THEME
RECENT RESEARCH PAPERS
Flash Review: BoJ Remains on Hold With An Easing Bias, While Revising Down Its Inflation Outlook
By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani
21 January 2020
Flash Preview: ECB On Hold As Downside Risks Modestly Fade, While Launching The Strategic Review
By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
20 January 2020
Flash Preview: Bank of Japan To Keep Its Cool And Let Fiscal Policy Do The Heavy-Lifting
By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
17 January 2020
Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold In January, While Keeping Its Modest Hiking Bias
By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
17 January 2020
Getting Ready For The Brexit “Adjustment”
By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
17 January 2020
Flash Preview: As The Economy Stabilises, Bank of Canada Remains on Hold
By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani
17 January 2020
Bank of England Moving Closer To Cutting Rates
By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
16 January 2020
US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead - An Update On The Conflict And Its Implications
By Nouriel Roubini and Giorgio Cafiero
8 January 2020
Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead
by Brunello Rosa, Fawaz Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani
19 December 2019
Flash Central Bank Review: Riksbank Brings The Repo Rate Back To Zero, And Signals A Long Pause
by Brunello Rosa and Karmen Meneses
19 December 2019
2020 GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND ASSET ALLOCATION - Despite The Improved Outlook, Beware of The Cracks
by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa, Alessandro Magnoli
16 December 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ PREVIEW: Bank of Japan to Stay on Hold, as Global Headwinds Are Lessened
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
16 December 2019
December 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Preview: Riksbank To Normalise Rates Before A Long Pause
by Brunello Rosa
13 December 2019
Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain on Pause In December, And For Some Time
by Brunello Rosa
13 December 2019
UK Election, Brexit and BoE Update: Johnson’s Landslide Victory Opens The Gates To Brexit
by Brunello Rosa
13 December 2019
Flash Review: Swiss National Bank On Hold, With An Easing Bias
by Brunello Rosa
12 December 2019
Flash Review: “Owl-ish” Lagarde Plays It Safe At First ECB Presser
by Brunello Rosa
12 December 2019
Flash Review: Dovish Fed Pledges To Stay On Hold During 2020 Electoral Year
by Brunello Rosa
12 December 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: SNB Likely To Hold Off, For Now
by Brunello Rosa, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Al Mughrabi
10 December 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Preview: Managing The Pause
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
9 December 2019
ECB PREVIEW: All Attention Will Be On Lagarde’s First Press Conference
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
6 December 2019
US-China Phase-1 Deal Likely To Be Completed Soon, Strategic Rivalry Likely To Increase Over Time
By Nouriel Roubini
6 December 2019
POLICY COMPASS - Winter Is Coming For Europe’s Wobbly Coalitions
by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa
5 December 2019
Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, With No Particular Bias
by Brunello Rosa
4 December 2019
December - November 2019
Flash Review: RBA Remains on Hold, With A Clear Easing Bias
by Brunello Rosa
3 December 2019
Flash Preview: RBA To Remain On Hold In December, While Remaining Dovish
by Brunello Rosa
29 November 2019
Flash Preview: BoC To Remain On Hold, With Some Risk of Easing
by Brunello Rosa
29 November 2019
Six ‘Grey Swan’ Events Could Hit The Global Economy And Markets In 2020
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani
28 November 2019
POLICY COMPASS - Fed’s Policy Into 2020-21: Lower For Longer?
by Nouriel Roubini
and Brunello Rosa
15 November 2019
Helicopter Drops of Money: Pros & Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
13 November 2019
november 2019
Flash Review: RBNZ Remains On Hold, But Is Prepared to Ease More If Needed
by Brunello Rosa
13 November 2019
Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years
by Luca Bandello and Brunello Rosa
8 November 2019
BOE: MPC Splits But Remains On Hold, While Signalling Possible Cuts Ahead
By Brunello Rosa
7 November 2019
Review: RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Reiterates Its Forward Guidance And Is Prepared To Ease More
by Brunello Rosa
5 November 2019
POLICY COMPASS - Bank of England To Remain in Wait–And–See Mode Before The General Election
by Brunello Rosa
1 November 2019
October - november 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: Reserve Bank of Australia to Stay On Hold In November
by Brunello Rosa
1 November 2019
Review: BoJ Remains On Hold, But Changes Forward Guidance To Signal Higher Readiness To Ease Policy
by Brunello Rosa
31 October 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Review: Federal Reserve Cuts Rates And Signals A Pause
by Brunello Rosa
30 October 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, But With A Clear Easing Bias
by Brunello Rosa
30 October 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Preview: A 25-bps Rate Cut, And a Likely Pause After
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
28 October 2019
Resilient Economy And Expected Easier Fiscal Stance Give BoC Time To Weigh Its Options
By Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac
25 October 2019
OCTOBER 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Preview: BoJ Mulls Policy Stimulus In October
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
25 October 2019
ECB Review: Draghi Downplays Governing Council Infighting At Farewell Presser
by Brunello Rosa
24 October 2019
Review: The Riksbank Signals A Long Pause After The December “Probable” Hike
by Brunello Rosa
24 October 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Central Bank Review: Norges Bank Remains On Pause and Mildly Hawkish
by Brunello Rosa
24 October 2019
Oil Outlook In 2020-21: In Absence Of Supply Shocks, Faltering Global Demand Will Dampen Oil Prices
By Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani
23 October 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - ECB PREVIEW: Acknowledging Dissent During Draghi’s Farewell Council Meeting
by Brunello Rosa
22 October 2019
Preview: Riksbank Remains On Hold, While Keeping Its Hiking Bias
by Brunello Rosa
21 October 2019
Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Stay On Hold With No Hiking Bias
By Brunello Rosa
18 October 2019
POLICY COMPASS: Brexit Negotiations Continue Amid Increasing Uncertainty
by Brunello Rosa
16 October 2019
Russia and The EU: The Geo-Strategic Implications of The Nord Stream-2 Gas Pipeline
By Paul Martin
15 October 2019
EU Update: A Challenging Start For The “Geopolitical Commission”
by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa
11 October 2019
ITALY Update: Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority
by Brunello Rosa
4 October 2019
September - october 2019
Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income
by Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani
3 October 2019
Flash Review: RBA Cuts Rates And Signals Further Easing Ahead
by Brunello Rosa
1 October 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
27 September 2019
Brexit Update: Despite The Constitutional Crisis, Boris Johnson Remains The Most Popular Leader
by Brunello Rosa
26 September 2019
POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring
by N. Roubini and A. Magnoli Bocchi
23 September 2019
Review: SNB Reviews Negative Rates Regime And Moves Closer To An Easier Policy Stance
By Brunello Rosa
19 September 2019
september 2019
Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates Once More Before A Pause
By Brunello Rosa
19 September 2019
Flash Review: BoJ On Hold, Getting Ready To Ease Policy In October
By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
19 September 2019
Fed Review: A Divided FOMC Cuts Rates, But Is Less Dovish Than Markets Expected
by Brunello Rosa
18 September 2019
Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities
by Giorgio Cafiero
17 September 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Keeping the Powder (Mostly) Dry
by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli
17 September 2019
FED PREVIEW: A 25bps Cut In September, With the Door Open to More Cuts Later On
by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli
16 September 2019
August - september 2019
Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates
By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
13 September 2019
Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Weigh Its Options In September
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
13 September 2019
ECB REVIEW: ECB Delivers A Low-Intensity, Open-Ended Easing Program
By Brunello Rosa
12 September 2019
ECB PREVIEW: ECB’s Easing Package May Be Smaller Than Expected
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
6 September 2019
BOC, RBA and Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With A Dovish Bias
by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa
30 August 2019
TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization
by A. Bocchi and Farah Aladsani
29 August 2019
August 2019
Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging
by Brunello Rosa
29 August 2019
ECB View Update: A Larger Stimulus Package For a More Severe Economic Slowdown
by B. Rosa, N. Roubini and F. Panelli
23 August 2019
MEXICO: Deteriorating Macroeconomic Outlook Amid Policy Uncertainty
by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa
22 August 2019
Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty
by Brunello Rosa
21 August 2019
Negative Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Response
by Nouriel Roubini
20 August 2019
Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth
by Francesca Panelli
16 August 2019
Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Risk Of Escalation
by G. Cafiero, N. Roubini, B. Rosa
14 August 2019
Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election
by Brunello Rosa
9 August 2019
Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold, But Still Open To Future Hikes
by Brunello Rosa
9 August 2019
Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing
by Brunello Rosa
7 August 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ to Cut Rates in August
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
2 August 2019
Flash Review: BOE Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged And Awaits Brexit Outcome
by Brunello Rosa
1 August 2019
July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut
by Brunello Rosa
31 July 2019
Review: A Cautious BOJ Stays Put, But Signals Readiness To Ease If Economic Conditions Worsen
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
30 July 2019
Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In September
by N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
29 July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions
by A. Waters, B. Rosa, Nouriel Roubini
26 July 2019
Review: ECB Prepares To Deliver Fresh Stimulus Package In September
by Brunello Rosa
25 July 2019
Impact Of Trade, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies
by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi
24 July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: ECB Getting Ready To Deliver More Easing In September
by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters, F. Panelli
19 July 2019
RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture
by Rémi Bourgeot and Brunello Rosa
17 July 2019
POLICY COMPASS - Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
12 July 2019
Flash Review: Bank of Canada Now On Hold, Ready To Go Either Way
by Brunello Rosa
10 July 2019
Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
9 July 2019
BoC Preview: Balancing Global Headwinds with Domestic Resilience
by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa
5 July 2019
JUNE - JULY 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS: G10 Central Banks Preparing For Their Easing Moves
by Brunello Rosa
4 July 2019
EU: The End Of The Musical Chairs Game Delivers A Fragile Political Equilibrium
by Brunello Rosa
3 July 2019
Flash Review: Riksbank Remains Cautious And Leaves Outlook Unchanged
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
3 July 2019
RBA Cuts Rates for a Second Month in a Row, Possibly With More Easing Ahead
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
2 July 2019
Tactical Risk-On In The Liquid Space, While Keeping Focus On Capital Preservation
by Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani
1 July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Preview: Riksbank To Remain Prudently Dovish
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
28 June 2019
JUNE 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
28 June 2019
Japan Election Update: Risk of Double Election Remains Despite Abe’s Dismissal
by Alex Waters
27 June 2019
POLICY COMPASS: EU Musical Chairs’ Battle At The Center of the EU Council Meeting
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
20 June 2019
Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates and Hints At More Hikes in 2019
by Brunello Rosa
20 June 2019
REVIEW: Fed Moves To Easing Bias As It Stands Ready To Cut Rates In H2
by Brunello Rosa
19 June 2019
Italy: Preparing For Fiscal Battles With The EU, Amid Domestic Political Turmoil
By Brunello Rosa
19 June 2019
POLICY COMPASS: No-Deal Hard Brexit Is Still A Low-Probability Scenario
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
18 June 2019
Fed To Stay On Hold But Leave Wide Open the Option of Forthcoming Rate Cuts
By N. Roubini, B. Rosa and Alex Waters
17 June 2019
Preview: Norges Bank Set To Increase Rates In Spite Of Dovish Fed and ECB
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
14 June 2019
US-China Ahead: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War
by Nouriel Roubini
14 June 2019
MARKET VIEWS - Fasten Your Seatbelts: Financial Markets’ Review and Outlook
by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi
14 June 2019
The SNB Introduces A New Policy Rate (and Claims To Have Space To Ease)
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
13 June 2019