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Rosa & Roubini Associates

Making sense of this world

Independent Research

Disruptive Ideas

Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views

Policy Compass

Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments

Monetary Affairs

Our take on the actions and decisions of global central banks


Travel Notes

Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs

Market Views

Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views

Macro Picture

Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events

Recent Research Papers

GERMANY: An Economic Powerhouse Trying to Revive the Political Centre Ground

by Rémi Bourgeot 

and Brunello Rosa

23 May 2018

ARGENTINA: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election

by Brunello Rosa and Renata Bossini

18 May 2018

BOE Stays on Hold and Remains Data Dependent

by 

Brunello Rosa


10 May 2018

BOE To Remain on Hold in May (And Even a Hike in August Is Not A Done Deal)

by 

Brunello Rosa


4 May 2018

Oil Prices in 2018-20: Unlikely To Hamper Global Growth Likely To Support Oil-Related Assets

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana  

3 May 2018

US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?

by 

Nouriel Roubini

2 May 2018

April 2018

Riksbank Pushes Back The Timing of First Rate Hike

by Brunello Rosa

26 April 2018

TRAVEL NOTES FROM ITALY: Short-Term Resilience, Long-Term Fragility

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

24 April 2018

Riksbank: Time to Push Back the Repo Rate Path

by 

Brunello Rosa 


23 April 2018

BOE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties

By 

Brunello Rosa 

and Nouriel Roubini

20 April 2018

BoJ Unlikely To Change Policy or Communication Until 2019 Amid Economic and Political Uncertainties

By Nouriel Roubini 

18 April 2018

ECB to Gradually Exit QE by Year-end


by Brunello Rosa 

and Nouriel Roubini 


17 April 2018

US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact

By Francisco Quintana 

and Pablo  Gallego Cuervo

16 April  2018

BOC Preview: Cautious BOC To Stay on Hold In April

by 

Jospeh Shupac  and Brunello Rosa


13 April 2018

March 2018

Asset Alocation Update: Cautious Risk Exposure With Defensive Positioning

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

and Francisco Quintana 

29 March 2018

Brexit: Transition Deal, Trade Agreements and Risks of a Cliff-Edge into WTO

By Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Renata Bossini 

28 March 2018

Russia: An Impressive Normalisation Towards Modest Growth

By Rémi Bourgeot

23 March 2018


Fed Review: Fed Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Hike


by Brunello Rosa 

22 March 2018

Fed Preview March 2018: A “Relatively Hawkish” Hike


by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

19 March 2018

India: Rising Macro Headwinds In Spite of Recent Pick-Up in Growth

By Nouriel Roubini

13 March 2018

ECB Drops Easing Bias Amid Dovish Press Conference

by Brunello Rosa

8 March 2018

BOC Preview: On Hold Given Negative Economic Surprises

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa

6 March 2018

ECB’s Dilemma: Euro Strength vs Removing the Easing Bias

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

2 March 2018

February 2018

Monetary Policy in the Medium-Term: Tighter Stance, Expanded Toolkit

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi 

and Francisco Quintana

23 February 2018

Volatility and Inflation Fears Likely to Continue Weighing on Markets

 by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

14 February 2018


Riskbank Review: On Hold, With A Dovish Tilt


by Brunello Rosa

14 February 2018


Q&A on FOMC Composition and Fed’s Policy Regime

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

13 February 2018

Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With a Dovish Bias

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

12 February 2018

BoE Delivers Hawkish Inflation Report

by Brunello Rosa

8 February 2018

Turkey: Muddling Through Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Challenges

by Rémi Bourgeot 

7 February 2018

Italian Elections: Uncertainty and Complacency Abound

by Brunello Rosa

6 February 2018

BOE Preview February 2018: On Hold, But Alert

by Brunello Rosa

2 February 2018

January 2018

China: In a Slow Transition, No Hard-landing But a Bumpy Road Ahead

 by Francisco Quintana

30 January 2018

Fed Preview: On Hold in January, Door Open in March

by Brunello Rosa

26 January 2018

ECB Review: Strong Euro at the Forefront of ECB’s Attention

by Brunello Rosa

25 January 2018

ECB Preview: Taking Stock of the Strong Euro


by Brunello Rosa

22 January 2018

The European “Musical Chairs” Game Has Just Begun

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 January 2018

Canada: Strong Cyclical Growth, But Structural Challenges Lie Ahead

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa

11 January 2018

Western Balkans: Still Many Obstacles to EU Accession


by Arlind Rama and Brunello Rosa

by 9 January 2018

Travel Notes: Will Macron Succeed in Reforming France?

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

3 January 2018

December 2017

Strategic Asset Allocation 2018: Moderate Risk-Taking Within A Defensive Positioning

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

22 December 2017

2018 Global Economic Outlook: Smooth Sailing for Now, With Headwind Risks Rising

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

21 December 2017

December 2017 Review: Riksbank Brings Forward Reinvestment Plans


by Brunello Rosa

20 December 2017

December 2017 Preview: Riksbank to Extend Monetary Easing


by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

15 December 2017

Fed Review December 2017: Another Dovish Hike, Caution Ahead

by Brunello Rosa

13 December 2017

Fed Preview: Cautious Tightening After The December Hike

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

11 December 2017

ECB Preview December 2017: Nuances on Forward Guidance

by Brunello Rosa

7 December 2017

U.S. Tax Cuts: A Most Modest Impact on The Economy and Markets

by Nouriel Roubini

4 December 2017

EM Currencies: Still Pressured, but more Resilient to Normalisation

by Rémi Bourgeot 

6 December 2017


Saudi Arabia: Rough Seas, But No Storm Ahead

By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Francisco Quintana, 

Pablo Gallego Cuervo

5 December 2017

November 2017

Progress on Further EU and EZ Integration and Risk-Sharing to Remain Limited

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

28 November 2017

A Hard Brexit with a Canada-Style FTA is the Most Likely Scenario

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

27 November 2017

Will Fears from China Cause Another Global Risk-off Episode?

by Nouriel Roubini

24 November 2017

Tensions Over Catalonia To Remain Elevated for Some Time Yet

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

16 November 2017

Are Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Moving Their Goal Posts?

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 November 2017

BOE Tightening: Unwillingly Dovish


by Brunello Rosa

2 November 2017

October 2017

The Choice of the New Fed Chair

by Nouriel Roubini

30 October 2017

ECB Cautiously Reduces the Pace of QE

by Brunello Rosa

26 October 2017

The Riksbank Hints at More QE

by Brunello Rosa

26 October 2017

How the Market is Mis-Reading the Riksbank

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

19 October 2017

ECB to Cautiously Reduce the Pace of QE


by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

16 October 2017

BOE to Reduce Accommodation Despite Rising Political Turmoil

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

13 October 2017

The Mystery of the Missing Inflation


by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

9 October 2017

September 2017

German Election: Reduced Window For Deeper EZ Integration

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

25 September 2017

Fed Review: Dovish Tightening, Hawkish Signals

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

20 September 2017

Fed Preview: "Relatively Dovish" Tightening Set to Continue

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

15 September 2017

Further Eurozone Integration: The Time Window is Very Narrow

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

15 September 2017

ECB Review: Draghi Said More than Most People Think

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

7 September 2017

Italy: Lower Cyclical Risks, Continued Structural Fragility

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

5 September 2017