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Independent Research
Disruptive Ideas
Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views
Policy Compass
Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments
Travel Notes
Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs
Market Views
Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views
Macro Picture
Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events
RESEARCH BY REGION - COUNTRY - THEME
recent research papers
EU Update: A Challenging Start For The “Geopolitical Commission”
by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa
11 October 2019
ITALY Update: Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority
by Brunello Rosa
4 October 2019
September - october 2019
Focusing On Capital Preservation, Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income
by Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani
3 October 2019
Flash Review: RBA Cuts Rates And Signals Further Easing Ahead
by Brunello Rosa
1 October 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
27 September 2019
Brexit Update: Despite The Constitutional Crisis, Boris Johnson Remains The Most Popular Leader
by Brunello Rosa
26 September 2019
POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring
by N. Roubini and A. Magnoli Bocchi
23 September 2019
Review: SNB Reviews Negative Rates Regime And Moves Closer To An Easier Policy Stance
By Brunello Rosa
19 September 2019
september 2019
Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates Once More Before A Pause
By Brunello Rosa
19 September 2019
Flash Review: BoJ On Hold, Getting Ready To Ease Policy In October
By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
19 September 2019
Fed Review: A Divided FOMC Cuts Rates, But Is Less Dovish Than Markets Expected
by Brunello Rosa
18 September 2019
Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities
by Giorgio Cafiero
17 September 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Keeping the Powder (Mostly) Dry
by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli
17 September 2019
FED PREVIEW: A 25bps Cut In September, With the Door Open to More Cuts Later On
by N. Roubini, B. Rosa, F. Panelli
16 September 2019
August - september 2019
Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates
By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
13 September 2019
Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Weigh Its Options In September
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
13 September 2019
ECB REVIEW: ECB Delivers A Low-Intensity, Open-Ended Easing Program
By Brunello Rosa
12 September 2019
ECB PREVIEW: ECB’s Easing Package May Be Smaller Than Expected
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
6 September 2019
BOC, RBA and Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With A Dovish Bias
by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa
30 August 2019
TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization
by A. Bocchi and Farah Aladsani
29 August 2019
August 2019
Conte Tries To Forge A M5S–PD Alliance- An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging
by Brunello Rosa
29 August 2019
ECB View Update: A Larger Stimulus Package For a More Severe Economic Slowdown
by B. Rosa, N. Roubini and F. Panelli
23 August 2019
MEXICO: Deteriorating Macroeconomic Outlook Amid Policy Uncertainty
by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa
22 August 2019
Gov't Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty
by Brunello Rosa
21 August 2019
Negative Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Response
by Nouriel Roubini
20 August 2019
Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth
by Francesca Panelli
16 August 2019
Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Risk Of Escalation
by G. Cafiero, N. Roubini, B. Rosa
14 August 2019
Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Election
by Brunello Rosa
9 August 2019
Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold, But Still Open To Future Hikes
by Brunello Rosa
9 August 2019
Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing
by Brunello Rosa
7 August 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ to Cut Rates in August
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
2 August 2019
Flash Review: BOE Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged And Awaits Brexit Outcome
by Brunello Rosa
1 August 2019
July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Federal Reserve Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut
by Brunello Rosa
31 July 2019
Review: A Cautious BOJ Stays Put, But Signals Readiness To Ease If Economic Conditions Worsen
by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli
30 July 2019
Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In September
by N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
29 July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions
by A. Waters, B. Rosa, Nouriel Roubini
26 July 2019
Review: ECB Prepares To Deliver Fresh Stimulus Package In September
by Brunello Rosa
25 July 2019
Impact Of Trade, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies
by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi
24 July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: ECB Getting Ready To Deliver More Easing In September
by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters, F. Panelli
19 July 2019
RUSSIA: Monetary Stabilisation, Econ Stagnation and Geopolitics Create A Mixed Political Picture
by Rémi Bourgeot and Brunello Rosa
17 July 2019
POLICY COMPASS - Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
12 July 2019
Flash Review: Bank of Canada Now On Hold, Ready To Go Either Way
by Brunello Rosa
10 July 2019
Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
9 July 2019
BoC Preview: Balancing Global Headwinds with Domestic Resilience
by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa
5 July 2019
JUNE - JULY 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS: G10 Central Banks Preparing For Their Easing Moves
by Brunello Rosa
4 July 2019
EU: The End Of The Musical Chairs Game Delivers A Fragile Political Equilibrium
by Brunello Rosa
3 July 2019
Flash Review: Riksbank Remains Cautious And Leaves Outlook Unchanged
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
3 July 2019
RBA Cuts Rates for a Second Month in a Row, Possibly With More Easing Ahead
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
2 July 2019
Tactical Risk-On In The Liquid Space, While Keeping Focus On Capital Preservation
by Bocchi, Al Mughrabi and Aladsani
1 July 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Preview: Riksbank To Remain Prudently Dovish
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
28 June 2019
JUNE 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
28 June 2019
Japan Election Update: Risk of Double Election Remains Despite Abe’s Dismissal
by Alex Waters
27 June 2019
POLICY COMPASS: EU Musical Chairs’ Battle At The Center of the EU Council Meeting
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
20 June 2019
Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates and Hints At More Hikes in 2019
by Brunello Rosa
20 June 2019
REVIEW: Fed Moves To Easing Bias As It Stands Ready To Cut Rates In H2
by Brunello Rosa
19 June 2019
Italy: Preparing For Fiscal Battles With The EU, Amid Domestic Political Turmoil
By Brunello Rosa
19 June 2019
POLICY COMPASS: No-Deal Hard Brexit Is Still A Low-Probability Scenario
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
18 June 2019
Fed To Stay On Hold But Leave Wide Open the Option of Forthcoming Rate Cuts
By N. Roubini, B. Rosa and Alex Waters
17 June 2019
Preview: Norges Bank Set To Increase Rates In Spite Of Dovish Fed and ECB
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
14 June 2019
US-China Ahead: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War
by Nouriel Roubini
14 June 2019
MARKET VIEWS - Fasten Your Seatbelts: Financial Markets’ Review and Outlook
by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi
14 June 2019
The SNB Introduces A New Policy Rate (and Claims To Have Space To Ease)
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
13 June 2019
MAY - JUNE 2019
US Inflation: Several Factors Dampening Structural Upward Pressures
by Francesca Panelli
13 June 2019
Review: ECB Is Not As Dovish As The Market Expected, But Is Ready To Ease
by Brunello Rosa
6 June 2019
MACRO PICTURE - Argentina: Elections To Test The Austerity Measures
Bocchi, Aladsani, Al Mughrabi, Fioretti
5 June 2019
Review: RBA Cuts Its Cash Rate Due to Uncertainty On The Global Outlook
By Alex Waters
4 June 2019
ECB Preview: Don’t Expect Too Much Substance, But Still a Dovish Tone
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
3 June 2019
MACRO PICTURE - USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations
By N. Roubini, B. Rosa and G. Cafiero
23 May 2019
MAY 2019
US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth, Fed’s Monetary Policy
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
16 May 2019
MARKET VIEWS - Lebanon: An ‘Unstable Equilibrium’ Supported By Capital Inflows
by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi
14 May 2019
FLASH REVIEW: Norges Bank Surprises Markets And Signals A Rate Hike In June
by Brunello Rosa
9 May 2019
FRANCE: The Social Crisis Lingers, While European Alliances Are Being Questioned
by Rémi Bourgeot
9 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: RBNZ Is The First G10 Central Bank to Cut Rates In This Cycle
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
8 May 2019
TRAVEL NOTES - CHINA: Growth Is Stabilizing at the Cost of Renewed Financial Imbalances
by Nouriel Roubini
7 May 2019
APRIL - MAY 2019
RBA Review: Cash Rate Held Steady, Labour Market Key to Rate Outlook
By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
7 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ Seen Cutting Rates in May
by Brunello Rosa
3 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - RBA PREVIEW: A Rate Cut Is On The Table
By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
3 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Remains Patiently Dovish, But No Rate Cuts In Sight
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
1 May 2019
Preview: Fed Still Patient, With Rate Cuts Considered Only If Outlook Worsens
by Nouriel Roubini and Alex Waters
29 April 2019
Ultra-Dovish Riksbank Lowers Its Repo Rate Path And Extends QE to End-2020
by Brunello Rosa
25 April 2019
APRIL 2019
Review: The BoJ Re-Commits to Its Current Policy Framework by Updating Its Forward Guidance
by Alex Waters
25 April 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Bank Of Canada Removes Its Tightening Bias
by Brunello Rosa
24 April 2019
MACRO PICTURE - Brazil: The Pension Reform Is The Crucial Test For Bolsonaro
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Farah Aladsani
24 April 2019
The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If EZ Shock is Mild)
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
23 April 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold, For Now
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
19 April 2019
Bank of Japan Preview: BoJ In Wait-And-See Mode as Global Headwinds May Fade
by Alex Waters and Nouriel Roubini
19 April 2019
ECB Review Assessing The Policy Stance Ahead Of Further Possible Action
by Brunello Rosa
10 April 2019
JAPAN: Monetary and Fiscal Easing Space Is Available In A Downside Scenario
by Nouriel Roubini
10 April 2019
ECB: Policy on Hold. No Tiering Yet and TLTRO Details to Be Decided Over Time
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
8 April 2019
ECB Is Mulling Reserve Tiering, But It Has Not Made Up Its Mind Yet
by Brunello Rosa
8 April 2019
Spain: Steady Economic Growth Threatened By Political Uncertainty
by Lapo Fioretti and Brunello Rosa
3 April 2019
MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War
By A. Waters, Brunello Rosa, N. Roubini
2 April 2019
March 2019
ASSET ALLOCATION: Maintain A Defensive Risk Profile, Focus On Capital Preservation
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
29 March 2019
Review: RBNZ Prepares For a Rate Cut (And Puts Pressure On RBA To Shift Risk Balance)
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
28 March 2019
Changes In Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools And Communication Policy
by Nouriel Roubini
25 March 2019
Review: Hawkish Norges Bank Raises Rates and Signals Another Hike Within 6 Months
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
21 March 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Central Bank Review: Fed Delivers Another Dovish Surprise
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
20 March 2019
