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Independent Research
Disruptive Ideas
Occasional papers with thought-provoking insights, challenging consensus views
Policy Compass
Follow history in the making, with consistently updated views on global policy developments
Travel Notes
Reports on our trips around the world. A deep dive into domestic and international affairs
Market Views
Market and asset allocation implications of our macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy views
Macro Picture
Our assessment, via our heuristic approach, of major economic, political and financial events
Research by region - country - theme
RECENT RESEARCH PAPERS
US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth and Fed’s Monetary Policy
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
16 May 2019
MARKET VIEWS - Lebanon: An ‘Unstable Equilibrium’ Supported By Capital Inflows
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi
14 May 2019
FLASH REVIEW: Norges Bank Surprises Markets And Signals A Rate Hike In June
by Brunello Rosa
9 May 2019
FRANCE: The Social Crisis Lingers, While European Alliances Are Being Questioned
by Rémi Bourgeot
9 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: RBNZ Is The First G10 Central Bank to Cut Rates In This Cycle
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
8 May 2019
TRAVEL NOTES - CHINA: Growth Is Stabilizing at the Cost of Renewed Financial Imbalances
by Nouriel Roubini
7 May 2019
APRIL - MAY 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS-RBA Review: Cash Rate Held Steady, Labour Market Key to Rate Outlook
By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
7 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Preview: RBNZ Seen Cutting Rates in May
by Brunello Rosa
3 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - RBA PREVIEW: A Rate Cut Is On The Table
By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
3 May 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Remains Patiently Dovish, But No Rate Cuts In Sight
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
1 May 2019
Preview: Fed Still Patient, With Rate Cuts Considered Only If Outlook Worsens
by Nouriel Roubini and Alex Waters
29 April 2019
Flash Review: Ultra-Dovish Riksbank Lowers Its Repo Rate Path And Extends QE to End-2020
by Brunello Rosa
25 April 2019
APRIL 2019
Review: The BoJ Re-Commits to Its Current Policy Framework by Updating Its Forward Guidance
by Alex Waters
25 April 2019
Brazil: The Pension Reform Is The Crucial Test For Bolsonaro
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Farah Aladsani
24 April 2019
The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If The Shock to EZ is Mild)
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
23 April 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold, For Now
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
19 April 2019
Bank of Japan Preview: BoJ In Wait-And-See Mode as Global Headwinds May Fade
by Alex Waters and Nouriel Roubini
19 April 2019
ECB Review Assessing The Policy Stance Ahead Of Further Possible Action
by Brunello Rosa
10 April 2019
JAPAN: Monetary and Fiscal Easing Space Is Available In A Downside Scenario
by Nouriel Roubini
10 April 2019
ECB PREVIEW: Policy on Hold. No Tiering Yet and TLTRO Details to Be Decided Over Time
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
8 April 2019
ECB Is Mulling Reserve Tiering, But It Has Not Made Up Its Mind Yet
by Brunello Rosa
8 April 2019
Spain: Steady Economic Growth Threatened By Political Uncertainty
by Lapo Fioretti and Brunello Rosa
3 April 2019
MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War
By A. Waters, Brunello Rosa, Nouriel Roubini
2 April 2019
March 2019
ASSET ALLOCATION: Maintain A Defensive Risk Profile, Focus On Capital Preservation
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
29 March 2019
Review: RBNZ Prepares For a Rate Cut (And Puts Pressure On RBA To Shift Risk Balance)
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
28 March 2019
Changes In Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools And Communication Policy
by Nouriel Roubini
25 March 2019
Review: Hawkish Norges Bank Raises Rates and Signals Another Hike Within Six Months
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
21 March 2019
Review: Fed Delivers Another Dovish Surprise
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
20 March 2019
Preview: Norges Bank To Hike In March and Signal Another Hike in 2019
by Alex Waters
15 march 2019
Fed Preview: Extended Pause Highly Likely and Treasuries Runoff to End This Year
By N. Roubini, Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters
14 March 2019
MARKET VIEWS - EM Currencies: The Fed’s Pause Provides Short-Term Support
by Rémi Bourgeot
13 March 2019
POLICY COMPASS - Japan: A General Election In July Is A Risk in A Politically Hectic 2019
by Alex Waters
12 March 2019
Italy Update : The Economic Recession Worsens The Political Landscape (And Vice-Versa)
by Brunello Rosa
11 March 2019
MACRO PICTURE - EU Update: Awaiting The Populist Tsunami
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
8 March 2019
February - March 2019
MACRO PICTURE; Venezuela’s Complicated Transition
by L. Fioretti, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
7 March 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS: Reviewing DNB’s Reaction Function To Defend The Currency Peg
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
5 March 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - CENTRAL BANK PREVIEW: BOC Likely To Pause For Longer
by Alex Waters, J. Shupac and Brunello Rosa
2 March 2019
MARKET VIEWS: A Fed Collar” Is Likely To Support The Markets In H1-2019
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
27 February 2019
February 2019
PREVIEW: Change In Forward Guidance and New (T)LTRO Coming, Given Downside Risks
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
21 February 2019
SNB: Rising Global and Domestic Risks To Fight With Little Policy Ammunition
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
20 February 2019
RBA Jumps on The Dovish Bandwagon, While RBNZ Still Sits On The Fence
by Alex Waters
19 February 2019
Germany's Economic and Political Uncertainties Are Rising
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
14 February 2019
Brexit Update: Getting to A Deal (One Way or Another)
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
13 February 2019
January - February 2019
POLICY COMPASS -The Rise of the Populist International: European Dis-Integration Ahead?
by Brunello Rosa and John Hulsman
6 February 2019
REVIEW: The Fed Takes A Sharp Break In the Hiking Cycle and Moves to a Strongly Dovish Stance
by Bruello Rosa
30 January 2019
POLICY COMPASS - PERSIAN GULF: Increased Polarisation and Power Fragmentation Ahead
by Cinzia Bianco
29 January 2019
Fed Preview: Opening The Door To A Pause In The Hiking Cycle
by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa
25 January 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - The Future of Banking: Small is the New Big
by Alessandro Magnoli and Mert Yildiz
24 January 2019
January 2019
Review: BoJ Lowers Inflation Projections and Remains On Auto-Pilot
by Alex Waters
23 January 2018
DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: The Revenge of Demographics
The Economic, Policy and Financial Implications of Current Demographic Trends, by Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac
15 January 2019
Turkey: Economic Stabilization After The March Local Elections
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
11 January 2019
REVIEW: BOC Remains On Hold, With Hawkish Undertones
By Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac
9 January 2019
DEcember 2018
PREVIEW: BoC Likely to Remain On Hold, While Sounding Upbeat
by Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac
7 January 2019
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Riksbank Hikes its Policy Rate by 25bps
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
20 December 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Reduces Expected Number of Rate Hikes in 2019
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
19 December 2018
TRAVEL NOTES - France: Social Tensions Upend French and Eurozone Politics
by Rémi Bourgeot
19 December 2018
Global Outlook & Strategic Asset Allocation For 2019: Skating on Thinner Ice
by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa
and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
18 December 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS - PREVIEW: Fed to Signal Slower Pace of Policy Normalization
by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and
Nouriel Roubini
17 December 2018
November - December 2018
RIKSBANK PREVIEW: Riksbank Likely To Wait Longer Before Lift-Off
by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters
14 December 2018
ECB REVIEW: ECB Confirms Its Policy Stance (With Few Details on Reinvestment)
by Brunello Rosa
13 December 2018
MARKET VIEWS - Markets Buffeted By Tailwinds and Headwinds At Year-End
by Alex Waters
7 December 2018
TRAVEL NOTES-ITALY: Partially Caving In, Given Market and European Pressures
by Brunello Rosa
5 December 2018
TRAVEL NOTES - GERMANY: A Succession Drama at a Time of Economic Weakness
by Rémi Bourgeot
4 December 2018
ECB PREVIEW: We Do Not Expect A Radical Shift In Policy in December
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
30 November 2018
November 2018
Oil Outlook 2019-20: Oil Prices’ Gradual Decline To Support Global Growth
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
and Francisco Quintana
26 November 2018
China Preparing for A Possible Full-Scale Economic and Geopolitical Cold War
by Nouriel Roubini
20 November 2018
POLICY COMPASS - US 2018 Mid-Terms: An Election That Settled Nothing
by John C. Hulsman
20 November 2018
BOJ Still Far From A Shift In Policy Regime, But The Triggers For A Change Are Now Clearer
by Nouriel Roubini
8 November 2018
In this “Final Rush,” Risks Remain That A Crisis Might Be Needed To Break the Brexit Impasse
by Brunello Rosa
and Nouriel Roubini
7 November 2018
Hedging The Risk of A Potential Emerging Markets Crisis
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi,
Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Francisco Quintana
2 November 2018
October 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS: ECB Review Rendez-Vous in December for All Decisions
by Brunello Rosa
25 October 2018
BOC Review: Trade Relief Ensures An Autumn Hike and Hawkish Tones
by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa
24 October 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS - PREVIEW: ECB Likely To Buy More Time Before Committing
by Brunello Rosa
22 october 2018
American Mid-term elections: Verdict on the Trump Revolution
John C. Hulsman
17 October 2018
The Journey To the Next Recession and Financial Crisis in 2020 Has Already Begun
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
9 October 2018
September - October 2018
Italy’s “Populist” Budget Defies the EU, Markets And Rating Agencies
by Brunello Rosa
28 September 2018
Divergence Between The U.S. And Other Countries Is Still Increasing
By A. Magnoli Bocchi and F. Quintana
27 September 2018
PREVIEW: Fed Continues to Normalize At a Steady Pace
by Brunello Rosa
and Nouriel Roubini
24 September 2018
September 2018
The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues
by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
20 September 2018
TRAVEL NOTES: Focus on Italy’s First “Populist” Budget
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
17 September 2018
ECB PREVIEW: Still Waiting For Re-Investment Policy Details
by Brunello Rosa
11 September 2018
EM Global Tremors: Central Banks’ Different Strategies to Defend Their Currencies
by Rémi Bourgeot
4 September 2018
August 2018
DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up
by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego, Damiano Terziotti
30 August 2018
Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed
by Nouriel Roubini
23 August 2018
MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets
by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini
21 August 2018
TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline
by Nouriel Roubini
14 August 2018
TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising
by Nouriel Roubini
9 August 2018