Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is Co-Founder of R&R and a Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates LLC. He is a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Prior to joining Stern, Nouriel was a faculty member at Yale University’s Department of Economics. Dr. Roubini is an expert on financial crises and widely recognised for having predicted the U.S. housing bust and its domestic and international fallout, which led to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. Dr. Roubini’s opinions on global economic issues are widely reported by the media, with the Financial Times having provided extensive coverage of his views.

Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience, having served, from 1998 to 2000, as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors. He then served as senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department. Dr. Roubini has held consulting positions at the IMF and the World Bank, among other prominent public and private-sector institutions. He has published extensively on international macroeconomic issues and co-authored various books, most recently “Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance” (Penguin Press, 2010). In 1997, he co-authored a seminal book entitled “Political Cycles: Theory and Evidence” (MIT Press). Dr. Roubini received a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and holds an undergraduate degree from Milan’s Bocconi University.

LINK TO NOURIELROUBINI.COM

september - november 2019

Fed’s Policy Into 2020-21: Lower For Longer?

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

15 November 2019

Nouriel Roubini

RECENT RESEARCH PAPERS

Fed Preview: Managing The Pause

ECB PREVIEW: All Attention Will Be On Lagarde’s First Press Conference

US-China Phase-1 Deal Likely To Be Completed Soon, Strategic Rivalry Likely To Increase Over Time

september - november 2019

Fed’s Policy Into 2020-21: Lower For Longer?

Helicopter Drops of Money: Pros & Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump

Fed Preview: A 25-bps Rate Cut, And a Likely Pause After

Central Bank Preview: BoJ Mulls Policy Stimulus In October

An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring

MONETARY AFFAIRS - BOJ PREVIEW: Keeping the Powder (Mostly) Dry

JULY - SEPTEMBER 2019

FED PREVIEW: A 25bps Cut In September, With the Door Open to More Cuts Later On

ECB PREVIEW: ECB’s Easing Package May Be Smaller Than Expected

ECB View Update: A Larger Stimulus Package For a More Severe Economic Slowdown

Negative Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Response

Scenarios: Tension Between Iran & US Likely To Continue, Increasing Risk Of Escalation

Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In Septem

JUNE - JULY 2019

BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions

Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months

Macron’s Push For French and European Reform Remains, But Will Be Constrained

POLICY COMPASS: EU Musical Chairs’ Battle At The Center of the EU Council Meeting

TRAVEL NOTES: No-Deal Hard Brexit Is Still A Low-Probability Scenario

Fed To Stay On Hold But Leave Wide Open the Option of Forthcoming Rate Cuts

May - june 2019

US-China: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War

ECB Preview: Don’t Expect Too Much Substance, But Still a Dovish Tone

MACRO PICTURE - USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations

US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth and Fed’s Policy

CHINA: Growth Is Stabilizing at the Cost of Renewed Financial Imbalances

MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Fed Remains Patiently Dovish, But No Rate Cuts In Sight

March - APril 2019

Preview: Fed Still Patient, With Rate Cuts Considered Only If Outlook Worsens

Bank of Japan Preview: BoJ In Wait-And-See Mode as Global Headwinds May Fade

Monetary and Fiscal Easing Space Is Available In A Downside Scenario

ECB PREVIEW: Policy on Hold. No Tiering Yet and TLTRO Details to Be Decided Over Time

MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War

Likely Changes In Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools And Communication Policy

December 2018 - March 2019

Fed Preview: Extended Pause Highly Likely and Treasuries Runoff to End This Year

MACRO PICTURE - Europe Update: Awaiting The Populist Tsunami

ECB PREVIEW: Change In Forward Guidance and New (T)LTRO Coming, Given Downside Risk

TRAVEL NOTES: Germany's Economic and Political Uncertainties Are Rising

POLICY COMPASS - Brexit Update: Getting to A Deal (One Way or Another)

Global Outlook & Strategic Asset Allocation For 2019: Skating on Thinner Ice

September - December 2018

PREVIEW: Fed to Signal Slower Pace of Policy Normalization

ECB PREVIEW: We Do Not Expect A Radical Shift In Policy in December

China Prepares for A Potential Full-Scale Economic and Geopolitical Cold War

BOJ Still Far From A Shift In Policy Regime, But Triggers For A Change Are Now Clearer

In this “Final Rush,” Risks Remain That A Crisis Might Be Needed To Break the

The Journey To the Next Recession and Financial Crisis in 2020 Has Already Begun

August - September 2018

PREVIEW: Fed Continues to Normalize At a Steady Pace

The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues

TRAVEL NOTES: Focus on Italy’s First “Populist” Budget

TURKEY: Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed

MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets

TURKEY UPDATE: The Risk of a Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline

TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising

PREVIEW: BoJ Unlikely To Change Its Policy Regime Apart From Minor Tweaks

TRAVEL NOTE - FRANCE: Europe’s (Temporary) Bright Spot

ITALY: New Government to Be Initially Only Modestly Confrontational with Europe

FED PREVIEW: Hike in June Done Deal, Four Hikes in 2018 Not Yet

ECB PREVIEW: Discussion on QE Extension to Begin in June, But No Rush to Decide

April-june 2018

TRAVEL NOTES: UK Post-Brexit Customs Options Mask Deeper Choices

Germany Remains Cautious On Further Eurozone Integration

TRAVEL NOTES - China: Reforms and Rebalancing to Remain Gradual

TRAVEL NOTES - Russia: Putin to Continue Inward-Oriented Economic Policies

US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Trade and Technology War?

Italy: Short-Term Resilience, Long-Term Fragility

March - April 2018

BOE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties

BoJ Unlikely To Change Policy or Communication Until 2019 Amid Economic, Political Uncertainties

ECB to Gradually Exit QE by Year-end

Fed Preview March 2018: A “Relatively Hawkish” Hike

India: Rising Macro Headwinds In Spite of Recent Pick-Up in Growth