Rosa & Roubini Associates

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RESEARCH ARCHIVES - August 2018

DISRUPTIVE IDEAS: Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego, Damiano Terziotti

30 August 2018

Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed

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by Nouriel Roubini

23 August 2018

MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

21 August 2018

TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline

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by Nouriel Roubini

14 August 2018

TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising

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by Nouriel Roubini

9 August 2018

CENTRAL BANK REVIEW: BOE Ends Up Delivering A Dovish Hike

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by Brunello Rosa

2 August 2018

July 2018

PREVIEW: BoJ Unlikely To Change Its Policy Regime Apart From Minor Tweaks

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by Nouriel Roubini

27 July 2018

PREVIEW: BOE Finds A Window To Slot In a Rate Hike

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by Brunello Rosa


27 July 2018

ECB Review: Details On Reinvestment Policy to Come After the Summer

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by Brunello Rosa

26 July 2018

Emerging Markets Outlook: Rising Risks, Fragility Ahead

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana

24 July 2018                       

ECB PREVIEW: Focus on Re-Investment Policy

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by Brunello Rosa


20 July 2018

MARKET VIEWS: Yield Curve “Near-Inversion” Does Not Imply U.S. Recession

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by Brunello Rosa

13 July 2018

June-July 2018

BOC Review: Hike Now, and on a Half-Yearly Basis

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by Joseph Shupac 

and Brunello Rosa  

12 July 2018 

PREVIEW: BOC Set to Raise Rates, But No Longer Certain to Signal Further Hikes

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by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa  

6 July 2018 

TRAVEL NOTES - France: Europe’s (Temporary) Bright Spot

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

4 July 2018 

IRAN: Mismanagement and International Tensions Stifle a Great Potential

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by Rémi Bourgeot


29 June 2018 

Rising Risks in Emerging Markets From Decline in Global Liquidity

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By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana

26 June 2018

MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOE After June MPC and Mansion House Speech

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by Brunello Rosa


22 June 2018

June 2018

ITALY: New Government to Be Initially Only Modestly Confrontational with Europe

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

20 June 2018

ECB Indicates End of QE and Beginning of Rates Guidance

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by 

Brunello Rosa

14 June 2018

FED REVIEW: Fed Delivers A Hawkish Hike

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by 

Brunello Rosa

13 June 2018

FED PREVIEW Hike in June Done Deal, Four Hikes in 2018 Not Yet

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

11 June 18

ECB PREVIEW: Discussion on QE Extension to Begin in June, But No Rush to Decide

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 June 2018 

TRAVEL NOTES: UK Post-Brexit Customs Options Mask Deeper Choices

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

6 June 2018

TRAVEL NOTES: Germany Remains Cautious On Further Eurozone Integration

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

5 June 2018

TRAVEL NOTES - China: Reforms and Rebalancing to Remain Gradual

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by Nouriel Roubini

4 June 2018

TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter

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by Alessandro Magnoli and Pablo Gallego

 1 June 2018

May 2018

TRAVEL NOTES: RUSSIA - Putin to Continue Inward-Oriented Economic Policies

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by 

Nouriel Roubini

29 May 2018

GERMANY: An Economic Powerhouse Trying to Revive the Political Centre Ground

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by Rémi Bourgeot 

and Brunello Rosa

23 May 2018

ARGENTINA: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election

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by Brunello Rosa and Renata Bossini

18 May 2018

BOE Stays on Hold and Remains Data Dependent

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by 

Brunello Rosa


10 May 2018

BOE To Remain on Hold in May (And Even a Hike in August Is Not A Done Deal)

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by 

Brunello Rosa

4 May 2018

Oil Prices in 2018-20: Unlikely To Hamper Global Growth Likely To Support Oil-Related Assets

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by A. Magnoli and F. Quintana  

3 May 2018

April - May 2018

US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?

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by Nouriel Roubini

2 May 2018

Riksbank Pushes Back The Timing of First Rate Hike

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by Brunello Rosa

26 April 2018

TRAVEL NOTES FROM ITALY: Short-Term Resilience, Long-Term Fragility

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by Brunello Rosa 

and Nouriel Roubini

24 April 2018

Riksbank: Time to Push Back the Repo Rate Path

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by 

Brunello Rosa 


23 April 2018

BOE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties

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By 

Brunello Rosa 

and Nouriel Roubini

20 April 2018

BoJ Unlikely To Change Policy or Communication Until 2019 Amid Economic and Political Uncertainties

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By Nouriel Roubini 

18 April 2018

ECB to Gradually Exit QE by Year-end

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by Brunello Rosa 

and Nouriel Roubini 


17 April 2018

US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact

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By Francisco Quintana 

and Pablo  Gallego Cuervo

16 April  2018

BOC Preview: Cautious BOC To Stay on Hold In April

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by 

Jospeh Shupac  

and Brunello Rosa


13 April 2018

March 2018

Asset Alocation Update: Cautious Risk Exposure With Defensive Positioning

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

and Francisco Quintana 

29 March 2018

Brexit: Transition Deal, Trade Agreements and Risks of a Cliff-Edge into WTO

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By Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Renata Bossini 

28 March 2018

Russia: An Impressive Normalisation Towards Modest Growth

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By Rémi Bourgeot

23 March 2018

Fed Review: Fed Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Hike

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by Brunello Rosa 

22 March 2018

Fed Preview March 2018: A “Relatively Hawkish” Hike

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

19 March 2018

India: Rising Macro Headwinds In Spite of Recent Pick-Up in Growth

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By Nouriel Roubini

13 March 2018

ECB Drops Easing Bias Amid Dovish Press Conference

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by Brunello Rosa

8 March 2018

BOC Preview: On Hold Given Negative Economic Surprises

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by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa

6 March 2018

ECB’s Dilemma: Euro Strength vs Removing the Easing Bias

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

2 March 2018

February 2018

Monetary Policy in the Medium-Term: Tighter Stance, Expanded Toolkit

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi 

and Francisco Quintana

23 February 2018

Volatility and Inflation Fears Likely to Continue Weighing on Markets

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 by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

14 February 2018


Riskbank Review: On Hold, With A Dovish Tilt

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by Brunello Rosa

14 February 2018


Q&A on FOMC Composition and Fed’s Policy Regime

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

13 February 2018

Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With a Dovish Bias

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

12 February 2018

BoE Delivers Hawkish Inflation Report

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by Brunello Rosa

8 February 2018

Turkey: Muddling Through Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Challenges

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by Rémi Bourgeot 

7 February 2018

Italian Elections: Uncertainty and Complacency Abound

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by Brunello Rosa

6 February 2018

BOE Preview February 2018: On Hold, But Alert

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by Brunello Rosa

2 February 2018

January 2018

China: In a Slow Transition, No Hard-landing But a Bumpy Road Ahead

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 by Francisco Quintana

30 January 2018

Fed Preview: On Hold in January, Door Open in March

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by Brunello Rosa

26 January 2018

ECB Review: Strong Euro at the Forefront of ECB’s Attention

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by Brunello Rosa

25 January 2018

ECB Preview: Taking Stock of the Strong Euro

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by Brunello Rosa

22 January 2018

The European “Musical Chairs” Game Has Just Begun

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

17 January 2018

Canada: Strong Cyclical Growth, But Structural Challenges Lie Ahead

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by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa

11 January 2018

Western Balkans: Still Many Obstacles to EU Accession

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by Arlind Rama and Brunello Rosa

by 9 January 2018

Travel Notes: Will Macron Succeed in Reforming France?

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by Nouriel Roubini 

and Brunello Rosa

3 January 2018

December 2017

Strategic Asset Allocation 2018: Moderate Risk-Taking Within A Defensive Positioning

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by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

22 December 2017

2018 Global Economic Outlook: Smooth Sailing for Now, With Headwind Risks Rising

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

21 December 2017

December 2017 Review: Riksbank Brings Forward Reinvestment Plans

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by Brunello Rosa

20 December 2017

December 2017 Preview: Riksbank to Extend Monetary Easing

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

15 December 2017

Fed Review December 2017: Another Dovish Hike, Caution Ahead

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by Brunello Rosa

13 December 2017

Fed Preview: Cautious Tightening After The December Hike

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

11 December 2017

ECB Preview December 2017: Nuances on Forward Guidance

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by Brunello Rosa


7 December 2017

EM Currencies: Still Pressured, but more Resilient to Normalisation

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by Rémi Bourgeot 

6 December 2017


Saudi Arabia: Rough Seas, But No Storm Ahead

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By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Francisco Quintana, 

Pablo Gallego Cuervo

5 December 2017

U.S. Tax Cuts: A Most Modest Impact on The Economy and Markets

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by Nouriel Roubini


4 December 2017

November 2017

Progress on Further EU and EZ Integration and Risk-Sharing to Remain Limited

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

28 November 2017

A Hard Brexit with a Canada-Style FTA is the Most Likely Scenario

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

27 November 2017

Will Fears from China Cause Another Global Risk-off Episode?

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by Nouriel Roubini

24 November 2017

Tensions Over Catalonia To Remain Elevated for Some Time Yet

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

16 November 2017

Are Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Moving Their Goal Posts?

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

8 November 2017

BOE Tightening: Unwillingly Dovish

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by Brunello Rosa

2 November 2017

October 2017

The Choice of the New Fed Chair

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by Nouriel Roubini

30 October 2017

ECB Cautiously Reduces the Pace of QE

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by Brunello Rosa

26 October 2017

The Riksbank Hints at More QE

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by Brunello Rosa

26 October 2017

How the Market is Mis-Reading the Riksbank

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

19 October 2017

ECB To Cautiously Reduce the Pace of QE

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

16 October 2017

BOE to Reduce Accommodation Despite Rising Political Turmoil

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

13 October 2017

The Mystery of the Missing Inflation

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

9 October 2017

September 2017

German Election: Reduced Window For Deeper EZ Integration

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

25 September 2017

MONETARY AFFAIRS: Fed Review: Dovish Tightening, Hawkish Signals

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

20 September 2017

Fed Preview: "Relatively Dovish" Tightening Set to Continue

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

15 September 2017

Further Eurozone Integration: The Time Window is Very Narrow

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by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

15 September 2017

MONETARY AFFAIRS: ECB Review: Draghi Said More than Most People Think

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

7 September 2017

TRAVEL NOTES: Italy: Lower Cyclical Risks, Continued Structural Fragility

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by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

5 September 2017