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SMART MONEY
Best Economics Book 2024 - Financial Times
“Smart Money: How digital currencies will win the New Cold War - and why the West needs to act now”, the book Brunello Rosa has written with Casey Larsen for Bloomsbury Publishing, is available in all major bookshops since October 24th, 2024. The book was named among the Best Economics Books in 2024 by the Financial Times.
This book discusses the fundamental theme of the “geopolitics of central bank digital currencies” in a non-technical manner, and is aimed at the general public. It does not shy away from discussing their most controversial implications, including the risks to privacy, the stability of the banking system as we know it, or the re-organisation of the global financial architecture around these new instruments.
Go to the book's webpage on brunellorosa.com
PODCAST
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the concept of "public goods" that Musk and Trump don't seem to understand.
28 March 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss whether Trump will tank the US economy and international financial markets?
22 March 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the response by US friends and allies to Trump’s reckless policies on NATO.
21 March 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why Trump with Russia is not a new “Nixon In China.”
7 March 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the latest elections make another bastion of Germany’s business model - i.e. political stability - collapse.
28 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how Trump, Vance and Hegseth recently reset US-EU relationship after decades of cooperation.
21 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the ongoing crypto hype, which is likely to be followed by a crypto winter later on.
14 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the ongoing battle on LLMs between OpenAI, DeepSeek and Alibaba
7 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the main takeaways from the recent World Economic Forum in Davos.
31 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the beginning of the second term of Donald Trump at the White House
24 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the risk for the US to remain isolated at global level following Trump's bombastic statements.
17 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how Elon Musk is becoming a Steve Bannon 2.0.
10 January 2025
News
Best Independent MacroEconomic Research & Advisory Firm-2023
In June 2023, Rosa & Roubini Associates has been recognised for the second consecutive year as the best independent macroeconomic research & advisory firm by Corporate Vision Magazine
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R&R Weekly Column
China raises state funding for strategic minerals amid US trade war
by Brunello Rosa
31 March 2025
On April 2nd, “Liberation Day” will occur in the US. This is the day in which the tariffs proposed by President Trump will be enacted, not just towards strategic rivals such as China, but also towards friends and allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU. The US, Canada, and Mexico are also linked by a trade agreement, USMCA, which replaced NAFTA, and was signed by Trump himself during his first mandate.
The reaction by the Canadian government has been particularly strong. The new prime minister Mark Carney, who called a snap election in order to get a full mandate after gaining power as a result of the resignation by former PM Justin Trudeau, said in a speech that “the old relationship with the US”, aimed at deepening the integration between the two economies, was “over,” and that Canada will need to start thinking about itself. He also said that Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs aimed at providing maximum damage to the US and minimum damage to Canada. Trump “reached out” to have a call with Carney, whose first foreign trip was to Europe rather than the US. During the call, the two leaders agreed to negotiate on the tariffs, but the tone remained tense.
This response from Canada was mirrored by Greenland, which didn’t welcome the visit by US Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha to island. Vance only spent three hours in Greenland, all in the US military base there, because he was met with vibrant protests and an active boycott by local shops, which refused to serve the couple.
But the issue of tariffs has now started to become intertwined with another centrepiece of Trump’s policy, i.e. the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. After conceding to Putin anything he could possibly demand from a negotiation without requiring him to commit anything in return, Trump is saying that he’s now “pissed off” with the Russian president, as Putin is dragging his feet on the deal, refusing to start the ceasefire that the Ukrainians have already agreed to. (Here we can see the good lessons on diplomacy reportedly imparted by British diplomats to the Ukrainian delegation after the Oval Office ambush). So, President Trump said the US will impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil imports (i.e. on countries purchasing Russian oil) if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire immediately.
One can see that tariffs have been used for multiple purposes: as a negotiating tactics, as a pressure/coercion instrument, and – as the ideologue behind tariffs (Peter Navarro) explained – to finance permanent tax cuts, together with a reduction in gasoline prices deriving from an increase in US shale oil and gas production. While Navarro speaks about tax cuts to the middle class, as we discussed last week, this is likely to result in massive wealth transfer from the poorest 40% of the population to the richest 1%, in which the middle class is not comprised (clearly a case of “turkeys voting for Christmas”).
As “Liberation Day” approaches, one wonders if the strategic objectives of the US administration are being met. The Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is mired in scandals: after the “Signal chatgate”, it emerged his wife – a Fox News producer – participated in DoD meetings without the necessary security clearing. One can only remember Lord Ismay’s old saying about NATO, which was built to keep the “Americans in, the Germans down, and Russia out.” After the recent concessions to Putin and Germany’s re-armament, it seems that we are now seeing “America out, Russia in and Germany up.” Not exactly the most brilliant outcome.
LATEST RESEARCH
Juxtaposition: America First While America Disrupts - A Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Analysis of Ambiguity & Arbitration in the Trump Tariffs
by Tiana Peterson
1 April 2025
Switzerland’s Economic Outlook and the Bitcoin Referendum Debate
by Nato Balavadze
26 March 2025
Germany’s Fiscal Package: Growth Impact, Debt Rule Changes, and Policy Shift
by Nato Balavadze
25 March 2025
Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Sovereign Wealth Fund: A New Era for US Digital Assets
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
11 March 2025
Sovereign Debt Dynamics: Rising Risks and Policy Challenges
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
18 March 2025
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
Week: 31 March - 7 April 2025
The Week Ahead: US Unemployment To Increase; EZ Inflation To Ease Off; Composite PMI To Rise In DMs
In the US, in March, unemployment rate is likely to increase to 4.2% (p: 4.1%). NFPs are seen rising by 128K (p: 151K). In March, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 49.8 (p: 52.7), Services PMI is likely to increase to 54.3 (p: 51.0). Composite PMI is seen increasing to 53.5 (p: 51.6).
In the EZ, in March, headline and core inflation rate is seen easing off to 2.2% y-o-y (p: 2.3%) and 2.5% y-o-y (p: 2.6%). In February, unemployment rate is likely to stay at 6.2%. In March, HCOB Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 48.7 (p: 47.6), while Services PMI is likely to decline to 50.4 (p: 50.6). Composite PMI is seen rising to 50.4 (p: 50.2).
In the UK, in March, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 44.6 (p: 46.9), whereas Services PMI is likely to rise to 53.2 (p: 51.0). Composite PMI is seen rising up to 52.0 (p: 50.5).
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead: Trump Renews Greenland Control Push; Court Authorizes Musk's DOGE to Proceed with USAID Dismantling
President Trump has renewed calls for U.S. control over Greenland, calling it vital for national security. During a visit to Pituffik Space Base, Vice President JD Vance criticized Denmark for underinvesting in Greenland’s defense and accused European allies of lagging on military spending. He warned of growing threats from Russia and China and stressed Greenland’s strategic importance as an early warning site for missile attacks.
A federal appeals court allowed Elon Musk and the DOGE to proceed with efforts to dismantle USAID, lifting a previous injunction. The ruling aligns with the Trump administration’s final push to shut down the foreign aid agency. The State Dep. informed Congress of its intent to eliminate USAID, and a DOGE official told staff that most employees will be laid off by July 1 or September 2.