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SMART MONEY
Best Economics Book 2024 - Financial Times
“Smart Money: How digital currencies will win the New Cold War - and why the West needs to act now”, the book Brunello Rosa has written with Casey Larsen for Bloomsbury Publishing, is available in all major bookshops since October 24th, 2024. The book was named among the Best Economics Books in 2024 by the Financial Times.
This book discusses the fundamental theme of the “geopolitics of central bank digital currencies” in a non-technical manner, and is aimed at the general public. It does not shy away from discussing their most controversial implications, including the risks to privacy, the stability of the banking system as we know it, or the re-organisation of the global financial architecture around these new instruments.
Go to the book's webpage on brunellorosa.com
PODCAST
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the risk for the US to remain isolated at global level following Trump's bombastic statements.
17 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how Elon Musk is becoming a Steve Bannon 2.0.
10 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how 2024 was in fact a year lived dangerously in geopolitics and politics.
3 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the world’s major central banks have changed their policy stance at year’s end
27 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how, after the US, Elon Musk is targets the UK’s political system
20 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the collapse of Assad's regime and what this means for the Middle East.
13 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how tech revolutions are set to separate money supply from state control.
6 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the "tech takeover" in the US, which will lead to the Musk (Trump) - Thiel (Vance) presidency.
29 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss Trump's first appointments and likely policies
22 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the likely causes and consequences of Trump’s recent triumph.
15 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the end of the US presidential race and the chaos that may emerge afterword.
5 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the key takeaways from the latest IMF Meetings.
1 November 2024
News
Best Independent MacroEconomic Research & Advisory Firm-2023
In June 2023, Rosa & Roubini Associates has been recognised for the second consecutive year as the best independent macroeconomic research & advisory firm by Corporate Vision Magazine
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R&R Weekly Column
Brace For Impact: Trump Begins His Second Term Today
by Brunello Rosa
20 January 2025
Donald Trump begins his second term in office today. His inauguration ceremony, which will be held indoor given the adverse weather conditions, is going to be very different from the one we witnessed 8 years ago, in January 2017. On that occasion, Trump unexpectedly won against Hillary Clinton, in a contested race in which she had won the popular vote but lost what actually matters, the majority in the electoral college.
Trump himself was surprised by that victory, and his first inaugural speech, while being as incendiary as one could have expected, occurred in a surreal atmosphere, in which half of the gigantic gardens in Washington’s National Mall were empty, as Trump was perceived to be a divisive figure, and to some extent an unknown quantity, from a political perspective. Four years in the White House then proved how divisive he was, and the high level of incompetence culminated in the disastrous management of the first phase of the Covid pandemic. This cost him the presidency, which returned, for four years, to the hands of the Democrats.
This time around the situation is completely different. In spite of extraordinary economic results, with dozens of millions of jobs created, and inflation having returned within reach of the central bank’s objective, public perceptions of the economy as being in a poor state, with unsustainably high prices for most Americans, have cost Biden his presidency. Kamala Harris wasn’t able to acheive the miracle of resurrecting the Democratic campaign. Trump won by promising a new golden age for the US, resulting from massive deregulation and a boost to new segments of the economy, including the incipient sector of digital assets, and within it that of cryptocurrencies.
Investors’ animal spirits have been in play since Trump’s victory in November, with a new upwards push for equity prices, the US Dollar, and the entire crypto space, but with the countervailing results of higher long-term rates, which could eventually hinder economic growth. The tech space, formerly Trump’s fierce opponents, has either supported his second ascent to the White House (with Elon Musk and Peter Thiel having sponsored the campaigns of Trump and Vance respectively) or else fallen in line (Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, etc). All the largest tech companies have raced to contribute to the inauguration expenses, by donating at least USD 1m each.
Trump will likely deliver an even more incendiary speech at the inauguration, promising a further boost to the economy as well as mass deportation of illegal immigrants, heavy tariffs on China (using the possibility of keeping Tik-Tok alive for longer as a lever to obtain more concessions from the Chinese government), and indeed tariffs on all countries that refuse to get in line with Washington’s directives. His attitude will be as fierce as ever, as the new official presidency picture (see above) shows.
The picture resembles the one taken after his arrest in New York, where he was eventually convicted of 34 felonies, for which he received no punishment, as the judge recognised it was de-facto impossible to punish a soon-to-be sworn-in president. The picture has no sign of smile (as in the first official picture), a raised eyebrow and a semi-closed right eye, in sign of open defiance to anyone that dares to stand in his way.
As we discussed in several columns previously, this will not be a normal presidency, as testified by the launch of its own meme crypto- currency (the $TRUMP) on the eve of its inauguration.
This is a gigantic conflict of interest, since his administration will decide on the regulation of all crypto activities. The second Trump presidency will likely transform the US liberal democracy into something new, which we will start discovering starting from today onwards.
LATEST RESEARCH
EU-China Technology Transfer: Strategic Tensions and Opportunities
by Nato Balavadze
14 January 2025
The Global Battle for Batteries: The Case of Northvolt Failure as an Example of Europe’s Weakness
by Nato Balavadze
9 January 2025
Elon Musk: From Tech Dominance to International Political Interference
by Dolores Agraso
8 January 2025
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
Week: 20-27 January
The Week Ahead: UK Unemployment To Rise; Economic Sentiment To Fall In EZ; PMIs Mixed In DMs
n the US, in January, Michigan Consumer Sentiment is seen falling to 73.2 (p: 74.).
In the EZ, in January, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is likely to fall marginally to 16.9 (p: 17.0). In January, HCOB Manufacturing PMI is seen increasing to 45.3 (p: 45.1), while Services PMI is likely to remain at 51.6.
In the UK, in November, unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.4% (p: 4.3%). In January, Gfk Consumer Confidence is seen deteriorating to -18 (p: -17). In January, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is likely to rise to 47.1 (p: 47.0), while Services PMI is expected to edge down to 50.6 (p: 51.1).
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead: Trump Inauguration And Who Will Be Attending; Israel-Hamas Ceasefire
Trump Inauguration On January 20. Donald Trump's inauguration moved indoors due to 'dangerous' cold. Three former presidents—Obama, Bush, and Clinton—will join outgoing leaders Biden and Harris. Trump’s guests include leaders like Argentina’s Milei, Italy’s Meloni, France’s Zemmour, and the UK’s Farage. Bolsonaro was barred by Brazil’s court due to legal issues. Tech billionaires Musk, Bezos, Cook, and Zuckerberg will also attend, sparking criticism over the industry’s apparent shift toward Trump.
Gaza ceasefire. A delayed Israel-Hamas ceasefire has begun, following Israeli attacks that killed 19 Palestinians. The deal includes a pause in fighting, the release of three Israeli captives, and 90 Palestinian prisoners. Thousands of displaced Palestinians return to their homes, while Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, plans to monitor the ceasefire closely.