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SMART MONEY
Best Economics Book 2024 - Financial Times
“Smart Money: How digital currencies will win the New Cold War - and why the West needs to act now”, the book Brunello Rosa has written with Casey Larsen for Bloomsbury Publishing, is available in all major bookshops since October 24th, 2024. The book was named among the Best Economics Books in 2024 by the Financial Times.
This book discusses the fundamental theme of the “geopolitics of central bank digital currencies” in a non-technical manner, and is aimed at the general public. It does not shy away from discussing their most controversial implications, including the risks to privacy, the stability of the banking system as we know it, or the re-organisation of the global financial architecture around these new instruments.
Go to the book's webpage on brunellorosa.com
PODCAST
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss whether Trump will tank the US economy and international financial markets?
22 March 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the response by US friends and allies to Trump’s reckless policies on NATO.
21 March 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why Trump with Russia is not a new “Nixon In China.”
7 March 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the latest elections make another bastion of Germany’s business model - i.e. political stability - collapse.
28 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how Trump, Vance and Hegseth recently reset US-EU relationship after decades of cooperation.
21 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the ongoing crypto hype, which is likely to be followed by a crypto winter later on.
14 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the ongoing battle on LLMs between OpenAI, DeepSeek and Alibaba
7 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the main takeaways from the recent World Economic Forum in Davos.
31 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the beginning of the second term of Donald Trump at the White House
24 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the risk for the US to remain isolated at global level following Trump's bombastic statements.
17 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how Elon Musk is becoming a Steve Bannon 2.0.
10 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how 2024 was in fact a year lived dangerously in geopolitics and politics.
3 January 2025
News
Best Independent MacroEconomic Research & Advisory Firm-2023
In June 2023, Rosa & Roubini Associates has been recognised for the second consecutive year as the best independent macroeconomic research & advisory firm by Corporate Vision Magazine
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R&R Weekly Column
The Relevance of Public Goods That Trump and Musk Don’t Seem To Get
by Brunello Rosa
24 March 2025
In Microeconomics 101, students are taught the concept of “Market Failures.” The “invisible hand’s” mechanism doesn’t always work, and in particular in case of “Public Goods,” “Externalities” (such as pollution deriving from a production activity) and “Natural Monopolies” (when start-up costs, barriers to entry, and significant economies of scale lead to only one firm being able to efficiently provide the service in a certain territory).
Public Goods are goods and services which are “non-excludable” (i.e. all consumers can consume the good) and non-rival (each consumer can consume all of the good). Typical examples include broadcast radio and TV programs, national defense and domestic security, public highways, and national parks. The key to public goods (which, by the way, can also be provided by private-sector entities, as in the case of radio and TV programs) is that it may be very hard to establish a price for their consumption and – as such – they may be offered for free; hence, their production needs to be financed by non-profit-maximising entities, typically the state.
Domestic services such as domestic security, national parks and public illumination, or international public goods such as national defense, international security and “a peaceful global environment”, are therefore more efficiently produced by the state, which is non-profit maximising organisation, and financed by taxes. This is what centuries of economic history has taught us.
When Elon Musk’s DOGE performs its indiscriminate cuts to public services, with the idea that any penny spent by the government is wasted, it seems to neglect the fact that the state provides essential services that nobody else would provide because it’s hard to price them and no profit-maximising private-sector institutions would do them instead.
Additionally, the state expenditure (symbolised by “G” in the national income GDP equation) provides an essential cushion to economic activity. When public spending was limited (such as in the 18th and 19th century) economic activity swung wildly, because it was simply following the cycle of private sector investment. But when uncertainty was too high, Keynes’ “preference for liquidity” kicked in, and investment froze, as there was not a level of interest rate low enough to convince entrepreneurs to invest. So, Keynes’ solution of promoting public investment was to provide a solution to such “liquidity trap.” Again, centuries of economic history has taught us that “Big Governments” stabilise economic cycles.
So far, this may be an excusable lack of knowledge or understanding of basic economic facts. It would be different if those indiscriminate expenditures cuts were only aimed at making the tax cuts promised to the well off become permanent via a cut to public spending. This is what a recent study by Yale University suggests: “The proposed GOP budget whose framework was supported last month in a vote by the House would include $4.5 trillion in tax cuts that would largely benefit the wealthy, along with $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, including to benefits for the public, including the poorest.” This would translate in a massive wealth transfer from the poorest 40% of the population to the wealthiest 1% of the population. “Stealing from the poor to the give to the rich”: kind of the opposite of what Robin Hood did.
LATEST RESEARCH
Switzerland’s Economic Outlook and the Bitcoin Referendum Debate
by Nato Balavadze
26 March 2025
Germany’s Fiscal Package: Growth Impact, Debt Rule Changes, and Policy Shift
by Nato Balavadze
25 March 2025
Review: Bank of England Maintains its “Gradual and Careful Approach” to Easing, but More Rate Cuts Are On the Horizon
By Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
20 March 2025
Review: The Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, But Reduces The Pace of QT
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
19 March 2025
Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Sovereign Wealth Fund: A New Era for US Digital Assets
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
11 March 2025
Sovereign Debt Dynamics: Rising Risks and Policy Challenges
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
18 March 2025
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
Week: 24-31 March 2025
The Week Ahead: US QoQ GDP To Decelerate; UK Inflation To Ease Off; PMIs To Increase In EZ And UK, While Being Mixed In US
In the US, in Q4, according to the final estimate, GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 2.3% q-o-q (p: 3.1%). In March, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is likely to decrease to 51.9 (p: 52.7), while Services PMI is seen increasing to 51.2 (p: 51.0). In March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment is seen falling to 57.9 (p: 64.7).
In the EZ, in March, HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase to 48.0 (p: 47.6) and 51.0 (p: 50.6). In March, consumer confidence is likely to increase to 97 (p: 96.3).
In the UK, in February, headline and core inflation are seen
easing off to 2.9% y-o-y (p: 3.0%) and 3.6% y-o-y (p: 3.7%). In March, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are likely to increase to 47.3 (p: 46.9) and 51.2 (p: 51.0). In February, retail sales are seen contracting by 0.3% m-o-m (p: 1.7%).
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead: İmamoğlu Arrest Sparks Mass Protests and Economic Turmoil In Turkey; EU Delays Tariffs
Protests in Turkey. Turkish police detained over 300 people during major protests against the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, a key rival to Erdoğan, on corruption and terrorism charges. İmamoğlu denies the allegations, calling them politically motivated. The arrest triggered economic turmoil and revived opposition momentum against Erdoğan’s long-standing rule.
The EU has delayed tariffs on US goods, originally set for April, to allow more time for talks with Washington over Trump’s steel and aluminium duties. The delay comes amid criticism from France and Italy and concerns over escalating trade tensions, with Trump threatening steep alcohol tariffs in response.