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SMART MONEY
Best Economics Book 2024 - Financial Times
“Smart Money: How digital currencies will win the New Cold War - and why the West needs to act now”, the book Brunello Rosa has written with Casey Larsen for Bloomsbury Publishing, is available in all major bookshops since October 24th, 2024. The book was named among the Best Economics Books in 2024 by the Financial Times.
This book discusses the fundamental theme of the “geopolitics of central bank digital currencies” in a non-technical manner, and is aimed at the general public. It does not shy away from discussing their most controversial implications, including the risks to privacy, the stability of the banking system as we know it, or the re-organisation of the global financial architecture around these new instruments.
Go to the book's webpage on brunellorosa.com
PODCAST
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how, after the US, Elon Musk is targets the UK’s political system
20 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the collapse of Assad's regime and what this means for the Middle East.
13 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how tech revolutions are set to separate money supply from state control.
6 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the "tech takeover" in the US, which will lead to the Musk (Trump) - Thiel (Vance) presidency.
29 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss Trump's first appointments and likely policies
22 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the likely causes and consequences of Trump’s recent triumph.
15 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the end of the US presidential race and the chaos that may emerge afterword.
5 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the key takeaways from the latest IMF Meetings.
1 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the US political polarisation is hitting the digital asset space.
25 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why China still needs to provide more fiscal and monetary stimulus to avert deflation
21 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the “bipolar” behaviour exhibited by markets in the last few weeks.
11 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the two conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, with no end in sight.
4 October 2024
News
Best Independent MacroEconomic Research & Advisory Firm-2023
In June 2023, Rosa & Roubini Associates has been recognised for the second consecutive year as the best independent macroeconomic research & advisory firm by Corporate Vision Magazine
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R&R Weekly Column
After The US, Elon Musk Targets The UK’s Political System
After The US, Elon Musk Targets The UK’s Political System
After The US, Elon Musk Targets The UK’s Political System
by Brunello Rosa
16 December 2024
A few days ago, the news emerged that Elon Musk was ready to provide 78 million pounds to Reform UK, the latest incarnation of Nigel Farage’s political party (after UKIP and the Brexit Party). Even if Farage denied it, the news caused a scandal both because it seemed to be an explicit case of foreign influence in domestic politics, which is forbidden in most, if not all countries, and secondly because it signalled Musk’s intention to export his “tech takeover” beyond the US and across the pond, to the UK.
Theoretically speaking, since Musk has UK-based companies (such as X/Twitter and Tesla), the first of these concerns would be formally (but not substantially) removed. But that would not alleviate the second concern, namely that Musk will try to take control of the UK political system, as he has done in the US by financing the electoral campaign of Trump and starting to act like a de-facto co-president.
This is not the first time Musk has intervened directly in UK politics. Last summer, he spoke about the “inevitable” civil war in the UK, when violent riots had exploded in the country as a result of the mis-information campaign started after the killing of three innocent girls at a summer camp.
Why is Musk so obsessed with the UK? In our view, the UK represents the paradigm of the liberal system that he is trying to knock down in the US in favour of a tech-led oligarchic regime. He could not tolerate it if the UK, the “the older brother” from which the US originated, were to remind the world what an authentically democratic, liberal and open political system can be. The other paradigmatic country in this regard would be France, but there the situation is precipitating in favour of Marine Le Pen without any need of foreign interference.
After The US, Elon Musk Targets The UK’s Political System
After The US, Elon Musk Targets The UK’s Political System
How successful is Musk likely to be? A recent poll shows that the Labour party has now fallen to third place, after the new Conservatives led by Kamy Badenock and Reform UK led by Farage. The solid parliamentary majority that Labour currently possesses will ensure a relatively tranquil navigation for PM Starmer, but he should not rest on his laurels.
The mood of the country is low, and without a significant boost to morale, Starmer’s and his government’s popularity may slide further, to a point where it would be hard to re-emerge. While Starmer handled the riots this summer well, by wearing his prosecutor-in-chief hat again, the tax-ridden budget has put him at odds with the productive fabric of the country.
Where is Peter Thiel, Musk’s buddy in the tech-takeover of the US Presidency, in all this? Well, via Palantir Thiel has acquired all the data of NHS patients in the UK by winning a £480m contract to “run the NHS platform”. Not bad, huh? So, it seems that the duo of Musk and Thiel may be ready to replicate their magic of taking over the country by controlling a right-wing populist candidate and its key infrastructure, in this case in healthcare.
In order to prevent this from happening, Starmer needs to up the defence system of the country against “hostile takeovers”, whether domestic or foreign, by reinforcing the laws on political influence, for example by introducing new and more stringent caps and concentration limits. At stake is the survival of the UK’s liberal democracy.
LATEST RESEARCH
Rapid Repeal: France’s Quick Change of Government Suggests Deep Turmoil
by Joshua Bowes
20 December
Review: Hawkish Fed Cuts Rates In December, But Halves The Number of Expected Rates Cuts in 2025
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
18 December
Review: Bank of England Keep Rates Unchanged, And Will Resume Its “Gradual Easing” In 2025
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
19 December 2024
Electoral Integrity Under Threat: Russian interference in Georgia and Romania’s 2024 election
by Marina Trovar I Velasco
18 December 2024
Review: BOJ Keeps Rates Unchanged, And Prepares For Future Hikes
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
19 December 2024
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
Week: 16 December - 23 December
The Week Ahead: US QoQ GDP To Advance; Headline Inflation To Increase In UK And EZ; Fed To Cut Rates, While BoE is On Hold
In the US, in Q3, according to final estimate, GDP growth rate is seen advancing by 2.8% y-o-y (p: 3.0%). In December, S&P Global Manufacturing is expected to fall to 49.4 (p: 49.7), while Services PMI is seen rising to 55.7 (p: 56.1). In December, Michigan Consumer Sentiment is likely to edge up to 74.0 (p: 71.8).
In the EZ, in November, headline inflation rate is seen increasing to 2.3% y-o-y (p: 2.0%), while core inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.7% y-o-y. In December, ZEW economic sentiment index is seen decreasing to 11.8 (p: 12.5). In December, HCOB Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 45.8 (p: 45.2), whereas Services PMI is likely to stay at 49.5.
among the largest EZ economies, in November, headline inflation rate is expected to: increase to 1.4% y-o-y (p: 0.9%) in Italy.
In the UK, in November, headline and core inflation rates are expected rise to 2.5% y-o-y (p: 2.3%) and 3.6% y-o-y (p: 3.3%). In October, unemployment rate is likely to stay at 4.3%. In December, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI are seen rising to 48.1 (p: 48.0) and 51.0 (p: 50.8).
CBs are mixed. In the US, the Fed is expected to cut its target Fed funds range to 4.24% - 4.50%. In the UK, the BoE is likely to hold its Bank Rat at 4.75%. In Japan, the BoJ is also expected to keep rates unchanged.
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead: US In Contact With Islamist Rebels Leading Syria Transition; South Korea’s Parliament Impeaches President
Syrian Crisis. The US has engaged with HTS, a group labeled as a terrorist organization, amid efforts for a peaceful transition in Syria after Bashar al-Assad's fall. Secretary of State Blinken confirmed the contact, emphasizing shared principles for an inclusive, minority-respecting Syrian-led transition. Satellite imagery and Ukrainian intelligence suggest Russia is pulling forces from Syria.
In South Korea, parliament impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol after his failed martial law attempt, with his own party turning against him. This is the second leader’s impeachment in a decade, suspending Yoon’s powers pending a Constitutional Court ruling.