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SMART MONEY
Best Economics Book 2024 - Financial Times
“Smart Money: How digital currencies will win the New Cold War - and why the West needs to act now”, the book Brunello Rosa has written with Casey Larsen for Bloomsbury Publishing, is available in all major bookshops since October 24th, 2024. The book was named among the Best Economics Books in 2024 by the Financial Times.
This book discusses the fundamental theme of the “geopolitics of central bank digital currencies” in a non-technical manner, and is aimed at the general public. It does not shy away from discussing their most controversial implications, including the risks to privacy, the stability of the banking system as we know it, or the re-organisation of the global financial architecture around these new instruments.
Go to the book's webpage on brunellorosa.com
PODCAST
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the ongoing crypto hype, which is likely to be followed by a crypto winter later on.
14 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the ongoing battle on LLMs between OpenAI, DeepSeek and Alibaba
7 February 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the main takeaways from the recent World Economic Forum in Davos.
31 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the beginning of the second term of Donald Trump at the White House
24 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the risk for the US to remain isolated at global level following Trump's bombastic statements.
17 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how Elon Musk is becoming a Steve Bannon 2.0.
10 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how 2024 was in fact a year lived dangerously in geopolitics and politics.
3 January 2025
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the world’s major central banks have changed their policy stance at year’s end
27 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how, after the US, Elon Musk is targets the UK’s political system
20 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the collapse of Assad's regime and what this means for the Middle East.
13 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how tech revolutions are set to separate money supply from state control.
6 December 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the "tech takeover" in the US, which will lead to the Musk (Trump) - Thiel (Vance) presidency.
29 November 2024
News
Best Independent MacroEconomic Research & Advisory Firm-2023
In June 2023, Rosa & Roubini Associates has been recognised for the second consecutive year as the best independent macroeconomic research & advisory firm by Corporate Vision Magazine
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R&R Weekly Column
Trump, Vance and Hegseth Reset US-EU Relationship After Decades of Cooperation
by Brunello Rosa
17 February 2025
Last week, three speeches given by US Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, along with a phone call made by US President Trump with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was followed by a declaration by US Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellog, have reset the US-EU relationship after decades of cooperation, taking it to one of the lowest points in recent history.
On 11th February, JD Vance spoke at the global summit on AI organised by French President Macron, who had just announced a EUR 109bn investment in artificial intelligence, matching the same GDP proportion as the US investment in the Stargate Project. At the end of the summit, the US refused to sign the joint declaration on “inclusive AI”, which was signed by all other participants, including the EU and China.
The main argument given as to why it did not sign the declaration was based on the usual “America First” approach, which foresees a technological superiority (both in semiconductors and software) as well as a regulatory superiority by the US. The UK, in an act of clear confusion and likely self-harm, decided to follow its bigger but younger American “cousin”, and also refused to sign the joint declaration.
On February 12th, Pete Hegseth also delivered an abrasive speech to the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. During that speech, he wiped out three years of diplomatic and strategic advancements made by the US and EU over Ukraine, making the following points: (a) it is not realistic to think that Ukraine will ever return to its 2014 borders, before Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory; (b) it is also not realistic to think about Ukraine’s accession to NATO; (c) once the new borders will be defined (which would likely not be far from the current de-facto borders, after Russia’s advancements into Ukraine’s territory), it will be up to European, rather than US or NATO troops, to patrol them; (d) those troops will NOT be covered by NATO’s Article 5 provisions; ( e) European countries will have to spend 5%, not 2%, of their GDP on defense. This is akin to punching the Europeans in the face, while at the same time telling them “you cannot count on the US for your security anymore.”
Also on February 12th, Trump and Putin held a phone call, at the end of which Trump declared that negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine war will begin “immediately,” reiterating the points made, the same day, by his Secretary of Defense Hegseth, which de-fact conceded to Russian President Putin anything he could possibly ask for from a negotiation. It does not look like a wise strategy from the master of the Art of the Deal to concede to his counterparts all the negotiation points before the discussion has even started. On 15 February, Kellog reinforced the message by saying that the Europeans will not be invited to the table of the negotiations regarding the future of Ukraine.
In between, on February 14th, JD Vance, speaking at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), reiterated all these previous messages, and added that Europe has betrayed its own ideals and that freedom of expression is in danger in Europe.
All these events have plunged US-European relations to their lowest points since WWII, with the Americans saying to the Europeans that effectively they should not rely on the US anymore for their security, and that, if Putin made further attempts to invade European territories, the US would not intervene.
The European response has been timid so far: Macron has announced an informal EU meeting on Ukraine, which still needs to be confirmed. Former ECB President Draghi wrote an article in the FT saying that it is Europe that has imposed the strongest barriers to further integration and success, rather than foreigners, by effectively putting “tariffs on itself.” The only stronger response came, once again, by Italian President Mattarella, who said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine followed the same spirit of Germany’s Third Reich, when it attempted to conquer Europe.
While it is unclear how this dispute will eventually evolve, it is clear that the only winner of this is China, which sees its strategic rival the West falling into abrasive and destructive infighting.
LATEST RESEARCH
Trump Administration on Tech: New Digital Assets and AI Policies
by Shane Gravel
20 February 2025
Crypto Revolution 2.0: How Trump is Redrawing the Digital Asset Roadmap - A Deep Dive into the New Regulatory Landscape
by Dolores Agraso
18 February 2025
Crypto-Hype, Crypto Winter and the Relationship between Bitcoin and Global Liquidity
by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze
13 February 2025
UK’s Economic Struggles: Productivity Stagnation, Investment Decline, and Policy Dilemmas
by Nato Balavadze
21 February 2025
Preview and Analysis of the 2025 German Parliamentary Elections: Polls, Candidates, and Possible Post-vote Coalitions
by Joel Crisetig
12 February 2025
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
Week: 17-24 February 2025
The Week Ahead: Inflation To Rise in UK And Italy, While Falling In France; QoQ GDP Growth To Increase In Japan
In the EZ, in February, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is seen edging up by 24.3 (p: 18). In January, largest EZ economies, headline inflation rate is expected to: i) fall by -0.1% y-o-y (p: 0.2%) in France; and ii) increase b 1.5% y-o-y (p: 1.3%) in Italy.
In the UK, in January, headline and core inflation are seen rising by 2.8% y-o-y (p: 2.5%) and 3.7% y-o-y (p: 3.2%). In December, unemployment rate is likely to rise by 4.5% (p: 4.4%). In January, Retail Price Index is likely to increase by 3.7% y-o-y (p: 3.5%). In February, Gfk Consumer Confidence is likely to remain at -22.
In Japan, GDP growth rate is expected to increase by 0.3% q-o-q (p: 0.2%) and by 1.0% y-o-y (p: 1.2%).
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead: Munich Security Conference 2025; Ukraine Peace Meetings in Saudi Arabia To Include Russia, US And Ukraine
Munich Security Conference 2025. US VP JD Vance delivered a scathing attack on Europe and Britain, over misinformation, disinformation, and free speech. Zelenskyy affirmed NATO membership remains on the table but called for the creation of “an armed forces of Europe” amid fears of reduction in US support.
Ukraine Peace Meeting in Saudi Arabia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, joined by National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and envoy Steve Witkoff. Envoy Keith Kellogg said the talks include the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine but exclude Europe. Zelensky confirmed Kyiv wasn’t invited. Trump's Ukraine envoy later stated Europe had no seat at the table after Washington sought input on security guarantees for Kyiv.