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SMART MONEY
Brunello Rosa's New Book
“Smart Money: How digital currencies will win the New Cold War - and why the West needs to act now”, the book Brunello Rosa has written with Casey Larsen for Bloomsbury Publishing, will be available in all major bookshops from October 24th, 2024.
This book discusses the fundamental theme of the “geopolitics of central bank digital currencies” in a non-technical manner, and is aimed at the general public. It does not shy away from discussing their most controversial implications, including the risks to privacy, the stability of the banking system as we know it, or the re-organisation of the global financial architecture around these new instruments.
Go to the book's webpage on brunellorosa.com
PODCAST
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the likely causes and consequences of Trump’s recent triumph.
15 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the end of the US presidential race and the chaos that may emerge afterword.
5 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the key takeaways from the latest IMF Meetings.
1 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the US political polarisation is hitting the digital asset space.
25 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why China still needs to provide more fiscal and monetary stimulus to avert deflation
21 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the “bipolar” behaviour exhibited by markets in the last few weeks.
11 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the two conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, with no end in sight.
4 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the election in Brandenburg confirmed the AfD’s rise in East Germany
27 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the Harris-Trump TV debate has re-opened the race for the White House.
20 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the Cold War between US and China is intensifying.
13 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the difference between defending the “freedom of speech” and spreading misinformation.
6 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the Israel-Hezbollah military exchanges re-open the risk of a further extension to the conflict in the Middle East
30 August 2024
News
Best Independent MacroEconomic Research & Advisory Firm-2023
In June 2023, Rosa & Roubini Associates has been recognised for the second consecutive year as the best independent macroeconomic research & advisory firm by Corporate Vision Magazine
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R&R Weekly Column
Trump’s First Appointments and Likely Policies: Buckle Up
Trump’s First Appointments and Likely Policies: Buckle Up
Trump’s First Appointments and Likely Policies: Buckle Up
by Brunello Rosa
18 November 2024
The newly re-elected US President Donald Trump started to make the first appointments of his new administration last week. The policies that the new appointees have announced, if and when they are confirmed by the US Senate (which the Republican party now controls), are not particularly reassuring.
Let’s start with the newly appointed Health Minister, Robert Kennedy Jr. The son of the former AG and Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, who was assassinated like his brother, is a notorious No-Vaxer and conspiracy theorist regarding the role of big-pharma. So, not surprisingly, in his first public speech after the nomination he said that he will instruct all the mission chiefs of his department to interrupt, for eight years, research on infectious disease, to focus instead on long-term health conditions.
Anybody acquainted with scientific matters knows that, in research, eight years is like eternity. The results that can be achieved over such a time span are enormous, and the accumulated delay versus the competitors (or against the diseases themselves, if constantly evolving like viruses) cannot be easily recouped. Not surprisingly, last Friday the equity prices of some of the major pharmaceutical companies in the US collapsed.
A second curious appointment has been that of Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman who joined the Republican Party to back Donald Trump. As Director of national intelligence, she will oversee US intelligence agencies like the CIA, FBI and the National Security Agency (NSA). Many eyebrows were raised upon her nomination, as she is considered to be quite close to Russian viewpoints.
It did not take long for this position to emerge. On the same day in which Russia made the hardest missile attack on Ukraine’s power grid near Kiev since the beginning of the war, Gabbard suggested that presidents Zelensky, Putin and Trump sit down around a table to reach a compromise in line with the Aloha spirit, so that the countries can “live in love” from now on. What a ridiculous assertion!
Russia and Ukraine have been in conflict (or overt war) for the best part of the last couple of decades, and several “compromise solutions” have been attempted and encapsulated in the various “Minsk” agreements, which have always been ignored by both sides.
Trump’s First Appointments and Likely Policies: Buckle Up
Trump’s First Appointments and Likely Policies: Buckle Up
Tulsi proposes as the basis of a peaceful co-existence. that Ukraine remain “a neutral territory”, with no accession to NATO or the EU. But history tells us that unless Ukraine enters NATO and the EU, Russia will have an incentive to re-start its invasion at the first possible opportunity.
In reality, the only possible and lasting compromise would be for Ukraine to give up the 18% of its territory gained by the Russians thus far in the war, which will Ukraine is unlikely to be re-gain any time soon, in exchange for Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU so that Russia will not have any incentive to re-start its invasion a few months down the road. Russia would have gained part of the Ukrainian territory (as well as Crimea), but would find itself with an expanded NATO at its border. Given this reality, even Putin warned that the idea that peace can be achieved in 1 day, as Trump claimed, is unrealistic. It will be interesting to see how Marco Rubio, the inexperienced Senator recently appointed as head of the State Department, will enter these negotiations.
In economic matters, in the race for the Treasury Department are Scott Bessent, founder of Key Square Group, and Howard Lutnick, chair and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. The market is betting on the former being appointed. Bessent understands markets, having been a sophisticated investor in Soros Fund Management, and he is considered to be a safer pair of hands. Lutnick is more famous for being a crypto fan. For this reason, Elon Musk openly suggests that he should be chosen rather than Bessent.
Elon Musk himself has been at the centre of controversy for posting a job ad for his Doge department in which he promised 80 hours of work per week for literally no pay.
Other controversial appointments have been Matt Gaetz as Attorney General and Elise Stefanik as US Ambassador to the UN. Gaetz once faced a sex trafficking investigation by the Justice Department he could now lead. Stefanik has no prior experience in foreign policy.
These are just examples of Trump’s recently made appointments, and of the policies that have been proposed by these appointees. If this is the beginning then one can only imagine what the future administration will bring. So buckle up folks!
LATEST RESEARCH
France: Shaky Debt Sustainability Aggravates Political Instability
by Shahed Hassanaly
20 November 2024
A Fragile Future: Medium-Term Challenges to China’s Growth Ambitions
by Nato Balavadze
19 November 2024
BRICS+: Shifting Global Economic Power and the Path to De-Dollarization
by Nato Balavadze
14 November 2024
The Conservative Reset: Kemi Badenoch’s Leadership and its Impact on UK Politics
by Klitos Philippides
13 November 2024
Mined in North America: Rewiring the Critical Mineral Supply Chain
by Noel Therattil
8 November 2024
Record Public Spending and Borrowing: Inside the UK’s New Budget Gamble
by Lāsma Kokina
12 November 2024
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
Week: 18 - 24 November
The Week Ahead: Headline Inflation To Increase In EZ And UK; PMIs To Rise In US, While Being Mixed In EZ And UK
In the US, In November, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI are expected increase to 48.8 (p: 48.5) and 55.2 (p: 55.0).
In the EZ, in October, headline inflation rate is seen increasing to 2.0% y-o-y (p: 1.7%), whereas core inflation rate is expected to remain at 2.7% y-o-y. In November, according to the flash estimates, consumer confidence is likely to rise to -12.0 (p: -12.5). In November, HCOB Manufacturing PMI is expected to stay at 46.0, Services PMI is likely to increase to 51.8 (p: 51.6).
Among the largest EZ economies, GDP growth rate is expected to advance by 0.2% q-o-q (p: -0.1%) and contract by -0.2% y-o-y (p: 0.0%) in Germany.
In the UK, in October, headline inflation rate is likely to rise to 2.2% y-o-y (p: 1.7%), whereas core inflation rate is expected to remain at 3.2% y-o-y. In October, retail price index is seen increasing to 3.5% y-o-y (p: 2.7%). In November GfK consumer confidence is likely to shrink by -22 (p: -21.0). In November, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to stay at 49.9, Services PMI is likely to increase to 52.1 (p: 52.0).
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead: Biden And Xi Met At APEC In Peru; Russia Launches Massive Missile Strike On Ukraine's Power Grid
Biden and Xi meeting. Xi met Biden at APEC, stressing stable China-U.S. ties and readiness to engage with Trump’s administration. They discussed China’s ties to Russia, human rights, tech, and Taiwan, amid uncertainty over U.S.-China relations under Trump’s tariff threats. Meanwhile a China-backed mega-port in Peru could create new trade routes, bypassing North America.
Russia-Ukraine war. Russia launched its largest missile attack since August, targeting Ukraine's power grid as winter approaches. Explosions rocked Kyiv and other cities, with air defenses active.