Making Sense of This World

August-October 2019

Resilient Economy & Expected Easier Fiscal Stance Give BoC Time To Weigh Its Options

by Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac

25 October 2019

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ITALY UPDATE: Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority

by Brunello Rosa

4 October 2019

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MEXICO: Deteriorating Macroeconomic Outlook Amid Policy Uncertainty

by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa

22 August 2019

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Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth

by Francesca Panelli

16 AUgust 2019

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Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Ri

by G. Cafiero, N. Roubini, B. Rosa

14 August 2019

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Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Elections

by Brunello Rosa

9 August 2019

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JUne - July 2019

A Theory For The Impact Of Trade Tensions, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies

by Bocchi, Aladsani and Al Mughrabi

24 July 2019

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Russia: Monetary Stability, Economic Stagnation and Geopolitics Create a Mixed Political Picture

by Rémi Bourgeot and Brunello Rosa

17 July 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - UK Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

12 July 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - Italy Update: Preparing For Fiscal Battles With The EU, Amid Domestic Political Turmoil

by Brunello Rosa

19 June 2019

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US-China Scenarios: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War

by Nouriel Roubini

14 June 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - United States Inflation: Several Factors Dampening Structural Upward Pressures

by Francesca Panelli

13 June 2019

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APRIL - MAY 2019

MACRO PICTURE - Argentina: Elections To Test The Austerity Measures

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi

and Lapo Fioretti

5 June 2019

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MACRO PICTURE USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations

by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and

Giorgio Cafiero

23 May 2019

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US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth and Monetary Policy

by Nouriel Roubini

and Brunello Rosa

16 May 2019

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FRANCE: The Social Crisis Lingers, While European Alliances Are Being Questioned

by Rémi Bourgeot

9 May 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - Brazil: The Pension Reform Is The Crucial Test For Bolsonaro

By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Farah Aladsani

24 April 2019

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The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If The Shock to EZ is Mild)

By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa

23 April 2019

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January - APril 2019

MACRO PICTURE: Spain Steady Economic Growth Threatened By Political Uncertainty

by Lapo Fioretti and Brunello Rosa

3 April 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War

by Alex Waters, Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

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Italy Update: The Economic Recession Worsens The Political Landscape (And Vice-Versa)

by Brunello Rosa

11 March 2019

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MACRO PICTURE - EU Update: Awaiting The Populist Tsunami

by Brunello Rosa

and Nouriel Roubini

8 March 2019

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MACRO PICTURE: Venezuela’s Complicated Transition

by Lapo Fioretti, Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters

7 March 2019

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Turkey: Economic Stabilization After The March Local Elections

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

11 January 2019

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June - December 2018

Global Outlook & SAA For 2019: Skating on Thinner Ice

by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa

and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

18 December 2018

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SCENARIO ANALYSIS - ITALY: Walking A Dangerous Line

by Brunello Rosa

5 October 2018

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BRAZIL: Partisan Trench War Impedes a Huge Potential

by Rémi Bourgeot

2 October 2018

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TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline

by Nouriel Roubini

14 August 2018

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EMERGING MARKETS OUTLOOK: Rising Risks, Fragility Ahead

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana

24 July 2018

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TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter

By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Pablo Gallego Cuervo

1 June 2018

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March - May 2018

ARGENTINA: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election

by Brunello Rosa and Renata Bossini

18 May 2018

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US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?

by Nouriel Roubini

2 May 2018

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US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact

by Francisco Quintana and Pablo Gallego

16 April 18

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Russia: An Impressive Normalisation Towards Modest Growth

by Rémi Bourgeot

23 March 2018

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MACRO PICTURE

UK Election, Brexit and BoE Update: Johnson’s Landslide Victory Opens The Gates To Brexit

Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years

August-October 2019

Resilient Economy & Expected Easier Fiscal Stance Give BoC Time To Weigh Its Options

ITALY UPDATE: Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority

MEXICO: Deteriorating Macroeconomic Outlook Amid Policy Uncertainty

Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth

Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Ri

Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Gov't and Seeks “Full Powers" With Early Elections

JUne - July 2019

A Theory For The Impact Of Trade Tensions, Easier Monetary Policy & FinTech On Small Open Economies

Russia: Monetary Stability, Economic Stagnation and Geopolitics Create a Mixed Political Picture

MACRO PICTURE - UK Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months

MACRO PICTURE - Italy Update: Preparing For Fiscal Battles With The EU, Amid Domestic Political Turmoil

US-China Scenarios: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War

MACRO PICTURE - United States Inflation: Several Factors Dampening Structural Upward Pressures

APRIL - MAY 2019

MACRO PICTURE - Argentina: Elections To Test The Austerity Measures

MACRO PICTURE USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations

US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth and Monetary Policy

FRANCE: The Social Crisis Lingers, While European Alliances Are Being Questioned

MACRO PICTURE - Brazil: The Pension Reform Is The Crucial Test For Bolsonaro

The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If The Shock to EZ is Mild)

January - APril 2019

MACRO PICTURE: Spain Steady Economic Growth Threatened By Political Uncertainty

MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War

Italy Update: The Economic Recession Worsens The Political Landscape (And Vice-Versa)

MACRO PICTURE - EU Update: Awaiting The Populist Tsunami

MACRO PICTURE: Venezuela’s Complicated Transition

Turkey: Economic Stabilization After The March Local Elections

June - December 2018

Global Outlook & SAA For 2019: Skating on Thinner Ice

SCENARIO ANALYSIS - ITALY: Walking A Dangerous Line

BRAZIL: Partisan Trench War Impedes a Huge Potential

TURKEY: The Risk of Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline

EMERGING MARKETS OUTLOOK: Rising Risks, Fragility Ahead

TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter

March - May 2018

ARGENTINA: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election

US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?

US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact

Russia: An Impressive Normalisation Towards Modest Growth

January - February 2018

China: In a Slow Transition, No Hard-landing But a Bumpy Road Ahead

Canada: Strong Cyclical Growth, But Structural Challenges Lie Ahead

Western Balkans: Still Many Obstacles to EU Accession

December 2017

2018 Global Economic Outlook Smooth Sailing for Now, With Headwind Risks Rising

Saudi Arabia: Rough Seas, But No Storm Ahead

U.S. Tax Cuts: A Most Modest Impact on the Economy and Markets

September - November 2017

Will Fears from China Cause Another Global Risk-off Episode?

Tensions Over Catalonia To Remain Elevated for Some Time Yet

The Mystery of the Missing Inflation

German Election: Reduced Window For Deeper EZ Integration