Research by region

Europe - European Union - Eurozone

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POLICY COMPASS: The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 

20 September 2018


Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego Cuervo, Damiano Terziotti, 30 August 2018


The European “Musical Chairs” Game Has Just Begun, 

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 17 January 2018

 

Progress On Further Eu And Ez Integration To Remain Limited, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 

28 November 2017

  

Further Eurozone Integration: The Time Window Is Very Narrow, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 17 September 2017

Middle East

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Iran

TRAVEL NOTES: IRAN: Mismanagement and International Tensions Stifle a Great Potential, 

by Remi Bourgeot, 29 June 2018


Iraq

IRAQ: Protests Will Be Contained, But Risk Of Further Unrest Remains, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Francisco Quintana, 18 July 2018


Syria

SCENARIO ANALYSIS: WAR IN SYRIA: US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact, by Francisco Quintana and Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 16 April 2018


Saudi Arabia

 Saudi Arabia Scenarios: Rough Seas, But No Storm Ahead, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Francisco Quintana, Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 5 December 2017

Emerging Markets

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Balkans

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Research by Country

United States of America

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United Kingdom

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Turkey

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TURKEY: Economic Stabilization After The March Local Elections, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 11 January 2019


POLICY COMPASS: TURKEY: Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed, by Nouriel Roubini, 23 August 2018


Turkey: Exports Are At Risk, 

by Ousmène Jacques Mandeng, 22 August 2018


MACRO PICTURE: TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline, by Nouriel Roubini, 14 August 2018


Turkish Lira Tumbles, Contagion Risks Rise, 

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Francisco Quintana and Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 13 August 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising, by Nouriel Roubini, 9 August 2018


MACRO PICTURE: TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 1 June 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: TURKEY: Muddling Through Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Challenges, 

by Remi Bourgeot. 7 February 2018


Turkey’s Attacks In Afrin Will Be Small-Scale And Unlikely To Move Markets, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 22 January 2018

Spain

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Tensions Over Catalonia To Remain Elevated For Some Time Yet, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 16 November 2017


Catalonia Tensions Set To Remain High For Some Time, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 31 October 2017

Canada

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Canada: Strong Cyclical Growth But Structural Challenges Lie Ahead,by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa 11 January 2018

France

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TRAVEL NOTES - FRANCE: Social Tensions Upend French and Eurozone Politics

by Rémi Bourgeot, 19 December 2018


TRAVEL NOTES - FRANCE: Europe’s (Temporary) Bright Spot, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 4 July 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: Will Macron Succeed in Reforming France?, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 3 January 2018

Research by Theme

Global Markets

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The Future of Banking: Small is the New Big, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Mert Yildiz, 24 January 2019


Global Outlook & Strategic Asset Allocation For 2019: Skating On Thinner Ice, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 18 December 2018


MARKET VIEWS - Markets Buffeted By Tailwinds and Headwinds At Year-End, by Alex Waters, 7 December 2018


MARKET VIEWS - Oil Outlook 2019-20: Oil Prices’ Gradual Decline To Support Global Growth, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 26 November 2018 


MARKET VIEWS: Hedging The Risk of A Potential Emerging Markets Crisis, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Francisco Quintana, 2 November 2018 


MARKET VIEWS: A Healthy and Expected Market Sell-Off, by Brunello Rosa, 15 October 2018


The Journey To the Next Recession and Financial Crisis in 2020 Has Already Begun, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 9 October 2018


STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION And MARKET UPDATE: Emerging Markets Under Pressure: The Divergence Between The U.S. And Other Countries Is Still Increasing, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 27 September 2018


STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION AND MARKET UPDATE: Rising Risks in Emerging Markets From Decline in Global Liquidity,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Francisco Quintana, 26 June 2018


MARKET VIEWS: Oil Prices in 2018-20: Unlikely To Hamper Global Growth Likely To Support Oil-Related Assets,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 3 May 2018


STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION And MARKET UPDATE: Cautious Risk Exposure With Defensive Positioning,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 29 March 2018


Monetary Policy in the Medium Term: Tighter Stance, Expanded Toolkit,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 23 February 2018


MARKET VIEWS: Volatility and Inflation Fears Likely to Continue Weighing on Markets,by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 14 February 2018


STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION 2018: Moderate Risk-Taking Within A Defensive Positioning,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 22 December 2017


2018 Global Economic Outlook: Smooth Sailing for Now, With Headwind Risks Rising, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 21 December 2017


Will Fears From China Cause Another Global Risk-Off Episode?, by Nouriel Roubini, 24 November 2017

  

Are Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Moving The Goal Posts?,  by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 8 November 2017

 

THE MYSTERY OF THE MISSING INFLATION, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 9 October 2017

Emerging Markets

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Federal Reserve

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Review: Fed Reduces Expected Number of Rate Hikes in 2019, by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 19 December 2018 


PREVIEW: Fed to Signal Slower Pace of Policy Normalization, by B. Rosa, A. Waters and Nouriel Roubini, 17 December 2018 


REVIEW: Fed Hikes Rates and Drops “Accommodative” Stance, by Brunello Rosa, 27 September 2018


PREVIEW: Fed Continues to Normalize At a Steady Pace, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 24 September 2018


REVIEW: Fed Delivers A Hawkish Hike, by Brunello Rosa, 13 June 2018


PREVIEW: FED: Hike in June Done Deal, Four Hikes in 2018 Not Yet, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 11 June 2018


REVIEW: Fed Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Hike,

by Brunello Rosa, 22 March 2018


PREVIEW: FED: A “Relatively Hawkish” Hike, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 19 March 2018


Q&A on FOMC Composition and Fed’s Policy Regime,

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 13 February 2018


PREVIEW: FED: On Hold in January, Door Open in March, by Brunello Rosa, 26 January 2018


REVIEW: FED: Another Dovish Hike, Caution Ahead,

by Brunello Rosa, 13 December 2017


PREVIEW: FED: Cautious Tightening After The December Hike, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 11 December 2017


The Choice of the New Fed Chair, by Nouriel Roubini, 30 October 2017


REVIEW: FED: Dovish Tightening, Hawkish Signals, 

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 20 September 2017


PREVIEW: FED: ‘Relatively Dovish’ Tightening Set To Continue, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 15 September 2017

European Central Bank

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ECB REVIEW: ECB Confirms Its Policy Stance (With Few Details on Reinvestment), by Brunello Rosa, 13 December 2018


ECB PREVIEW: We Do Not Expect A Radical Shift In Policy in December, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 30 November 2018 


ECB Review: Rendez-Vous in December for All Decisions

by Brunello Rosa, 25 October 2018 


PREVIEW: ECB Likely To Buy More Time Before Committing, by Brunello Rosa, 22 Octtober 2018


REVIEW: ECB Buys Time (Again) On Re-Investment Policy, by Brunello Rosa, 13 September 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Still Waiting For Re-Investment Policy Details,

by Brunello Rosa, 11 September 2018


REVIEW: ECB: Details On Reinvestment Policy to Come After the Summer Break, by Brunello Rosa, 26 July 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Focus On Re-Investment Policy, by Brunello Rosa, 20 July 2018


REVIEW: ECB Indicates End of QE and Beginning of Rates Guidance, by Brunello Rosa, 14 June 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Discussion on QE Extension to Begin in June, But No Rush to Decide, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 8 June 2018


ECB to Gradually Exit QE by Year-end, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 17 April 2018


REVIEW: ECB Drops Easing Bias, Amid Dovish Press Conference, 

by Brunello Rosa, 8 March 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Euro Strength vs Removing the Easing Bias, 

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 2 March 2018


REVIEW: ECB: Strong Euro at the Forefront of ECB’s Attention, 

by Brunello Rosa, 25 January 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Tacking Stock of the Strong Euro, by Brunello Rosa, 22 January 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Nuances On Forward Guidance, by Brunello Rosa, 7 December 2017

 

REVIEW: ECB Cautiously Reduces The Pace Of QE, by Brunello Rosa, 26 October 2017

  

PREVIEW: ECB To Cautiously Reduce The Pace Of QE, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 16 October 2017


ECB REVIEW: Draghi Said More than Most People Think, by Brunello Rosa, 7 September 2017


Bank of England

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REVIEW: BOE Ends Up Delivering a Hawkish Hike, 

by Brunello Rosa, 2 August 2018


PREVIEW: BOE Finds A Window To Slot In a Rate Hike, 

by Brunello Rosa, 27 July 2018


BOE After June MPC and Mansion House Speech, 

by Brunello Rosa, 22 June 2018


REVIEW: BOE Stays on Hold and Remains Data Dependent, by Brunello Rosa, 10 May 2018


PREVIEW: BOE To Remain on Hold in May (And Even a Hike in August Is Not A Done Deal), by Brunello Rosa, 4 May 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: BoE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 20 April 2018


BoE Delivers Hawkish Inflation Report, by Brunello Rosa, 8 February 2018


PREVIEW: BOE: On Hold, But Alert, by Brunello Rosa, 2 February 2018


REVIEW: BoE Tightening: Unwillingly Dovish, by Brunello Rosa, 2 November 2017 


BOE to Reduce Accommodation Despite Rising Political Turmoil, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 13 October 2017

Riksbank

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MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Riksbank Hikes its  Policy Rate by 25bpsf, by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 20 December 2018


PREVIEW: Riksbank Likely To Wait Longer Before Lift-Off, by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 14 December 2018


Riksbank Pushes Back The Timing of First Rate Hike,

by Brunello Rosa, 26 April 2018


Time to Push Back the Repo Rate Path, by Brunello Rosa, 23 April 2018


REVIEW: RIKSBANK: On Hold, With a Dovish Tilt, 

by Brunello Rosa, 14 February 2018


PREVIEW: RIKSBANK: On Hold, With a Dovish Bias,

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 12 February 2018


REVIEW: Riksbank Brings Forward Reinvestment Plans, by Brunello Rosa, 20 December 2017


Riksbank Hints At More Qe, by Brunello Rosa, 26 October 2017


How The Market Is Mis-Reading The Riksbank, 

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 19 October 2017

Bank of Canada

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REVIEW: BOC Remains On Hold, With Hawkish Undertones, by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac, 9 January 2019


PREVIEW: BOC Likely To Remain on Hold, While Sounding Upbeat, by Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac, 

7 January 2019


BOC Review: Trade Relief Ensures An Autumn Hike and Hawkish Tones, by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 24 October 2018 


REVIEW: BOC: Hike Now, and on a Half-Year Basis,

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 12 July 2018


PREVIEW: BOC Set to Raise Rates, But No Longer Certain to Signal Further Hikes, by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 6 July 2018


PREVIEW: Cautious BOC To Stay on Hold In April, 

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 13 April 2018


PREVIEW: BOC: On Hold Given Negative Economic Surprises, by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 6 March 2018

Norges Bank

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Photo: Esten Borgos (from Norges Bank’s website)


Norges Bank Preview: Waiting For March to Hike

by Alex Waters, 18 January 2019


Norges Bank Begins Its Well-Telegraphed Tightening Cycle, 

by Brunello Rosa, 20 September 2018