Rosa & Roubini Associates

118 Pall Mall London SW1Y 5ED | +44(0)207 1010 718

RESEARCH BY REGION

Europe - European Union - Eurozone

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Winter Is Coming For Europe’s Wobbly Coalitions, by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa, 5 December 2019


EU Update: A Challenging Start For The “Geopolitical Commission”, by Grégoire Roos and Brunello Rosa, 11 October 2019


POLICY COMPASS - EU: The End Of The Musical Chairs Game Delivers A Fragile Political Equilibrium, by Brunello Rosa, 3 July 2019


EU Musical Chairs’ Battle At The Center of the EU Council Meeting, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 20 June 2019


The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If The Shock to EZ is Mild), by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 23 April 2019 


Post-Ambrosetti Forum Bullet Points on Europe,  by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 8 April 2019


MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War, by Alex Waters, Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 2 April 2019


MACRO PICTURE - EU Update: Awaiting The Populist Tsunami, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini , 8 March 2019


POLICY COMPASS - The Rise of the Populist International: European Dis-Integration Ahead? By Brunello Rosa and John Hulsman, 6 February 2019 


POLICY COMPASS: The European “Musical Chairs” Game Continues, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 20 September 2018


Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego Cuervo, Damiano Terziotti, 30 August 2018


The European “Musical Chairs” Game Has Just Begun, 

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 17 January 2018

 

Progress On Further Eu And Ez Integration To Remain Limited, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 28 November 2017

  

Further Eurozone Integration: The Time Window Is Very Narrow, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 17 September 2017

Middle East

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Lebanon

An ‘Unstable Equilibrium’ Supported By Capital Inflows, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi, 14 May 2019


Persian Gulf

POLICY COMPASS: Increased Polarisation and Power Fragmentation Ahead, by Cinzia Bianco, 29 January 2019 


Iran

US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead – An Update On The Conflict And Implications For The Global Economy, Policies And Markets, By Nouriel Roubini and Giorgio Cafiero, 8 January 2020


Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities, by Giorgio Cafiero, 17 September 2019


Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Risk Of Escalation, by Giorgio Cafiero, Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 14 August 2019


MACRO PICTURE: USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Giorgio Cafiero, 23 May 2019


TRAVEL NOTES: IRAN: Mismanagement and International Tensions Stifle a Great Potential, 

by Remi Bourgeot, 29 June 2018


Iraq

IRAQ: Protests Will Be Contained, But Risk Of Further Unrest Remains, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Francisco Quintana, 18 July 2018


Syria

SCENARIO ANALYSIS: WAR IN SYRIA: US-Led Airstrikes On Syria Likely to Have Limited Economic and Financial Impact, by Francisco Quintana and Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 16 April 2018


Saudi Arabia

Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities, by Giorgio Cafiero, 17 September 2019


Saudi Arabia Scenarios: Rough Seas, But No Storm Ahead, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Francisco Quintana, Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 5 December 2017

Emerging Markets

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Venezuela

Venezuela’s Complicated Transition, by Lapo Fioretti, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 7 March 2019


Brazil

Brazil: The Pension Reform Is The Crucial Test For Bolsonaro, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Farah Aladsani, 24 April 2019


BRAZIL: Partisan Trench War Impedes a Huge Potential, by Remi Bourgeot, 2 October 2018


Russia

Russia: Monetary Stabilisation, Economic Stagnation and Geopolitical Advances Create a Mixed Political Picture, By Rémi Bourgeot and Brunello Rosa, 17 July 2019


TRAVEL NOTES: RUSSIA: Putin to Continue Inward-Oriented Economic Policies, by Nouriel Roubini, 29 May 2018


MACRO PICTURE: RUSSIA: An Impressive Normalisation Towards Modest Growth, by Remi Bourgeot, 23 March 2018


India

TRAVEL NOTES: INDIA: Rising Macro Headwinds In Spite of Recent Pick-Up in Growth, by Nouriel Roubini, 13 March 2018


Argentina

POLICY COMPASS: An Investor Guide to Navigate Argentina's Debt Restructuring, by Nouriel Roubini and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 23 September 2019


Argentina: Elections To Test The Austerity Measures, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Farah Aladsani, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Lapo Fioretti, 5 June 2019


Argentina: Between Disaster and Hope, by Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac, 5 September 2018


Argentina: Macri Tries to Reassure Investors Ahead of G20 Meeting and Presidential Election,by Brunello Rosa and Renata Bossini, 18 May 2018


Koreas

NORTH KOREA – US SUMMIT: A Vague Agreement That Mostly Benefits Kim Jong-Un,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Francisco Quintana, Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 14 June 2018


A Quick Memo on The Koreas: Mutual Advantages of a Possible Re-Unification, by Joseph Shupac, 2 May 2018 


Mexico

MEXICO: Deteriorating Macroeconomic Outlook Amid Policy Uncertainty, By Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa, 22 August 2019


Tunisia

Tunisia: New Social Unrest Sparked By Recent Increases In Fuel Prices Made To Comply With IMF Agreement, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani , 4 December 2019


RESEARCH BY COUNTRY

United States of America

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US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead – An Update On The Conflict And Implications For The Global Economy, Policies And Markets, By Nouriel Roubini and Giorgio Cafiero, 8 January 2020


The US-China Phase-1 Trade Deal Is Likely To Be Completed Soon, But the Strategic Rivalry Is Also Likely To Increase Over Time, by Nouriel Roubini, 6 December 2019


Tension Between US and Iran Increases After The Attack On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities, by Giorgio Cafiero, 17 September 2019


US-China Scenarios: A Controlled Escalation Is More Likely Than A Full Deal or A Full-Scale War, by Nouriel Roubini, 14 June 2019


MACRO PICTURE - US Inflation: Several Factors Dampening Structural Upward Pressures, by Francesca Panelli, 13 June 2019


MACRO PICTURE: USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Giorgio Cafiero, 23 May 2019


MACRO PICTURE: US-China Trade War Risks and Impact on US Inflation, Growth and Fed’s Monetary Policy, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 16 May 2019


The US Can Temporarily “Decouple” From The Eurozone (If The Shock to EZ is Mild), by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 23 April 2019 


MACRO PICTURE - EU-US Auto Trade Dispute: Negotiations Before A War, by Alex Waters, Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 2 April 2019


POLICY COMPASS - US 2018 Mid-Terms: An Election That Settled Nothing, by John C. Hulsman, 21 November 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: AMERICAN MID-TERM ELECTIONS: Verdict on the Trump Revolution, by John C. Hulsman, 17 October 2018


MARKET VIEWS: Yield Curve “Near-Inversion” Does Not Imply U.S. Recession, by Brunello Rosa, 13 July 2018


NORTH KOREA – US SUMMIT: A Vague Agreement That Mostly Benefits Kim Jong-Un, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Francisco Quintana, Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 14 June 2018


Impact of Tariffs and Trade Wars on the US Dollar,  

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 15 March 2018


US-China Trade Tensions: Skirmishes or Start of a Broader Trade and Technology War?, by Nouriel Roubini, 2 May 2018


U.S. Tax Cuts: A Most Modest Impact On Economy And Markets, by Nouriel Roubini, 4 December 2017

United Kingdom

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Getting Ready For The Brexit “Adjustment”,By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 17 January 2020


UK Election, Brexit and BoE Update: Johnson’s Landslide Victory Opens The Gates To Brexit, by Brunello Rosa, 13 December 2019


BoE To Remain in Wait–And–See Mode Before The General Election, by Brunello Rosa, 1 November 2019


Brexit Negotiations Continue Amid Increasing Uncertainty, by Brunello Rosa, 16 October 2019 


Brexit Update: Despite The Constitutional Crisis, Boris Johnson Remains The Most Popular Leader, by Brunello Rosa, 26 September 2019 


MACRO PICTURE: UK - Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months, By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 12 July 2019


POLICY COMPASS - No-Deal Hard Brexit Is Still A Low-Probability Scenario, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 18 June 2019


POLICY COMPASS - Brexit Update: Going To The Wires, by Brunello Rosa, 15 March 2019


POLICY COMPASS: UK Brexit Update: Getting to A Deal (One Way or Another), by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 13 February 2019


Travel Notes: In this “Final Rush,” Risks Remain That A Political And Economic Crisis Might Be Needed To Break the Brexit Impasse, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 7 November 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: UK: Post-Brexit Customs Options Mask Deeper Choices, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 6 June 2018


POLICY COMPASS: BREXIT: Transition Deal, Trade Agreements and Risks of a Cliff-Edge into WTO,

by Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Renata Bossini, 28 March 2018


Brexit Vs Grexit: Why Negotiations Will Remain Bumpy, by Brunello Rosa, 8 December 2017

 

Hard Brexit With Canada-Style FTA Is The Most Likely Outcome, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 27 November 201

Germany

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Italy

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ITALY UPDATE Upcoming Budget To Test The Solidity Of The M5S-PD Majority, by Brunello Rosa, 4 October 2019


ITALY: Conte Tries To Forge A Five Star – PD Alliance - An Initially Fragile Government Is Emerging, by Brunello Rosa, 29 August 2019


Government Crisis Update: A Chaotic Crisis Plunges Italy Into Deep Political Uncertainty, by Brunello Rosa, 21 August 2019


Flash Update: Salvini Pulls The Plug On Conte’s Government and Seeks “Full Powers” With Early Election, by Brunello Rosa, 9 August 2019


MACRO PICTURE - Italy Update: Preparing For Fiscal Battles With The EU, Amid Domestic Political Turmoil, by Brunello Rosa, 19 June 2019


MACRO PICTURE -Italy Update: The Economic Recession Worsens The Political Landscape (And Vice-Versa), by Brunello Rosa, 11 March 2019


TRAVEL NOTES - ITALY: Risks Re-Emerging After The Truce, by Brunello Rosa, 15 February 2019


TRAVEL NOTES - ITALY: Partially Caving In, Given Market and European Pressures, by Brunello Rosa, 5 December 2018


SCENARIO ANALYSIS: ITALY: Walking a Dangerous Line, by Brunello Rosa, 5 October 2018


POLICY COMPASS: ITALY: Italy’s “Populist” Budget Defies the EU, Markets And Rating Agencies, by Brunello Rosa, 28 September 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: ITALY: Focus on Italy’s First ‘Populist’ Budget, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 17 September 2018


Bond Vigilantes Constrain The Populist Italian Coalition But Credibly Squaring The Budget Circle Will Be Challenging, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 10 September 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: ITALY: New Government to Be Initially Only Modestly Confrontational with Europe, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 20 June 2018


Bullet Points on Italy Travel Notes: New Government to Be Initially Only Modestly Confrontational with Europe, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 11 June 2018


Italy: Political Crisis Intensifies and Becomes Institutional, by Brunello Rosa, 29 May 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: ITALY; Short-Term Resilience, Long-Term Fragility, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 24 April 2018


Italian Elections 2018: A Radical Political Regime Change, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 5 March 2018


POLICY COMPASS: Italian Elections: Uncertainty and Complacency Abound, by Brunello Rosa, 6 February 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: ITALY; Lower Cyclical Risks, Continued Structural Fragility, by Brunello Rosa, 5 September 2017

Turkey

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TRAVEL NOTES - TURKEY: In A Crisis-Prone Environment, There Are Signs Of Normalization, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Farah Aladsani, 29 August 2019


TURKEY: Economic Stabilization After The March Local Elections, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 11 January 2019


POLICY COMPASS: TURKEY: Unconventional Policy Options Undertaken by Turkey Are Unlikely to Succeed, by Nouriel Roubini, 23 August 2018


Turkey: Exports Are At Risk, 

by Ousmène Jacques Mandeng, 22 August 2018


MACRO PICTURE: TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Crisis May Rapidly Become the Baseline, by Nouriel Roubini, 14 August 2018


Turkish Lira Tumbles, Contagion Risks Rise, 

by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Francisco Quintana and Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 13 August 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: TURKEY: The Risk of a Full-Blown Balance of Payments Crisis Is Rising, by Nouriel Roubini, 9 August 2018


MACRO PICTURE: TURKEY: Volatility Until the Elections, Slow Normalization Thereafter, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 1 June 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: TURKEY: Muddling Through Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Challenges, 

by Remi Bourgeot. 7 February 2018


Turkey’s Attacks In Afrin Will Be Small-Scale And Unlikely To Move Markets, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Pablo Gallego Cuervo, 22 January 2018

Spain

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Searching The Lost Political Stability: Spain’s Fourth General Election In Four Years, by Luca Bandello and Brunello Rosa, 8 November 2019


MACRO PICTURE - Spain: Steady Economic Growth Threatened By Political Uncertainty, by Lapo Fioretti and Brunello Rosa, 3 April 2019


Tensions Over Catalonia To Remain Elevated For Some Time Yet, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 16 November 2017


Catalonia Tensions Set To Remain High For Some Time, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 31 October 2017

Canada

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RESEARCH BY THEME

Global Markets

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Global Economic Outlook and Strategic Asset Allocation For 2020 - Despite The Improved Outlook, Beware of The Cracks, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa, and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 16 December 2019


Six ‘Grey Swan’ Events Could Hit The Global Economy And Markets In 202o, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani, 28 November 2019


The Pros and Cons of Monetised Fiscal Deficits to Fight the Next Economic Slump, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 13 November 2019


Oil Outlook In 2020-21: In Absence Of Supply Shocks, Faltering Global Demand Will Dampen Oil Prices, By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani, 23 October 2019


Russia and The EU: The Geo-Strategic Implications of The Nord Stream-2 Gas Pipeline, By Paul Martin, 15 October 2019


Q4-2019 STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION: Focusing On Capital Preservation, While Limiting The Risk-Taking To Fixed-Income, By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi, Farah Aladsani, 3 October 2019


Negative Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Response, How Central Banks Should Respond To The Ongoing US-China Trade and Tech War and Potential US-Iran Oil War, by Nouriel Roubini, 20 August 2019


Income And Wealth Inequality Continues To Weigh On Global Growth, by Francesca Panelli, 16 August 2019


G10 Central Banks Preparing For Their Easing Moves, By Brunello Rosa, 4 July 2019


MARKET VIEWS: Exploiting The Tactical Risk-On In The Liquid Space, While Keeping Focus On Capital Preservation, By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani, 1 July 2019


Fasten Your Seatbelts: Financial Markets’ Review and Outlook, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi, Farah Aladsani, 14 June 2019


STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION And MARKET UPDATE: Maintain A Defensive Risk Profile, Focus On Capital Preservation, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 29 March 2019


MARKET VIEWS: A “Fed Collar” Is Likely To Support The Markets In H1-2019, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 27 February 2019


The Future of Banking: Small is the New Big, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Mert Yildiz, 24 January 2019


Global Outlook & Strategic Asset Allocation For 2019: Skating On Thinner Ice, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 18 December 2018


MARKET VIEWS - Markets Buffeted By Tailwinds and Headwinds At Year-End, by Alex Waters, 7 December 2018


MARKET VIEWS - Oil Outlook 2019-20: Oil Prices’ Gradual Decline To Support Global Growth, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 26 November 2018 


MARKET VIEWS: Hedging The Risk of A Potential Emerging Markets Crisis, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Pablo Gallego Cuervo and Francisco Quintana, 2 November 2018 


MARKET VIEWS: A Healthy and Expected Market Sell-Off, by Brunello Rosa, 15 October 2018


The Journey To the Next Recession and Financial Crisis in 2020 Has Already Begun, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 9 October 2018


STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION And MARKET UPDATE: Emerging Markets Under Pressure: The Divergence Between The U.S. And Other Countries Is Still Increasing, by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 27 September 2018


STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION AND MARKET UPDATE: Rising Risks in Emerging Markets From Decline in Global Liquidity,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Francisco Quintana, 26 June 2018


MARKET VIEWS: Oil Prices in 2018-20: Unlikely To Hamper Global Growth Likely To Support Oil-Related Assets,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 3 May 2018


STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION And MARKET UPDATE: Cautious Risk Exposure With Defensive Positioning,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 29 March 2018


Monetary Policy in the Medium Term: Tighter Stance, Expanded Toolkit,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana, 23 February 2018


MARKET VIEWS: Volatility and Inflation Fears Likely to Continue Weighing on Markets,by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 14 February 2018


STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION 2018: Moderate Risk-Taking Within A Defensive Positioning,by Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, 22 December 2017


2018 Global Economic Outlook: Smooth Sailing for Now, With Headwind Risks Rising, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 21 December 2017


Will Fears From China Cause Another Global Risk-Off Episode?, by Nouriel Roubini, 24 November 2017

  

Are Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Moving The Goal Posts?,  by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 8 November 2017

 

THE MYSTERY OF THE MISSING INFLATION, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 9 October 2017

Federal Reserve

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Flash Review: Dovish Fed Pledges To Stay On Hold During 2020 Electoral Year, by Brunello Rosa, 12 December 2019


Fed Preview: Managing The Pause, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 9 December 2019


Fed’s Policy Into 2020-21: Lower For Longer?, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 15 November 2019


Review: Fed Cuts Rates And Signals A Pause, by Brunello Rosa, 30 October 2019


Fed Preview: A 25-bps Rate Cut, And a Likely Pause After, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 28 October 2019


Fed Review: A Divided FOMC Cuts Rates, But Is Less Dovish Than Markets Expected, by Brunello Rosa, 18 September 2019


FED PREVIEW: A 25bps Cut In September, With the Door Open to More Cuts Later On, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli, 16 September 2019


Fed Review: Fed Unwillingly Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Rate Cut, by Brunello Rosa, 31 July 2019


Preview: Fed to Cut Rates by 25bps in July and Signal Another 25bps Cut In September, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 29 July 2019


REVIEW: Fed Moves To Easing Bias As It Stands Ready To Cut Rates In H2, by Brunello Rosa, 19 June 2019


FED PREVIEW: Fed To Stay On Hold But Leave Wide Open the Option of Forthcoming Rate Cuts, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 17 June 2019


Review: Fed Remains Patiently Dovish, But No Rate Cuts In Sight, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 1 May 2019


Preview: Fed Still Patient, With Rate Cuts  Considered Only If Outlook Worsens, by Nouriel Roubini and Alex Water, 29 April 2019


DISTRUPTIVE IDEAS - Changes In The Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools And Communication Policy: Likely Move To Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, by Nouriel Roubini, 25 March 2019


Review: Fed Delivers Another Dovish Surprise, by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 20 MArch 2019


Fed Preview: Extended Pause Highly Likely and Treasuries Runoff to End This Year, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 14 March 2019


REVIEW: The Fed Takes A Sharp Break In the Hiking Cycle and Moves to a Strongly Dovish Stance, by Brunello  Rosa 30 January 2019


FED PREVIEW: Opening The Door To A Pause In The Hiking Cycle, by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 25 January 2019 


Review: Fed Reduces Expected Number of Rate Hikes in 2019, by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 19 December 2018 


PREVIEW: Fed to Signal Slower Pace of Policy Normalization, by B. Rosa, A. Waters and Nouriel Roubini, 17 December 2018 


REVIEW: Fed Hikes Rates and Drops “Accommodative” Stance, by Brunello Rosa, 27 September 2018


PREVIEW: Fed Continues to Normalize At a Steady Pace, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 24 September 2018


REVIEW: Fed Delivers A Hawkish Hike, by Brunello Rosa, 13 June 2018


PREVIEW: FED: Hike in June Done Deal, Four Hikes in 2018 Not Yet, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 11 June 2018


REVIEW: Fed Delivers A Relatively Hawkish Hike,

by Brunello Rosa, 22 March 2018


PREVIEW: FED: A “Relatively Hawkish” Hike, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 19 March 2018


Q&A on FOMC Composition and Fed’s Policy Regime,

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 13 February 2018


PREVIEW: FED: On Hold in January, Door Open in March, by Brunello Rosa, 26 January 2018


REVIEW: FED: Another Dovish Hike, Caution Ahead,

by Brunello Rosa, 13 December 2017


PREVIEW: FED: Cautious Tightening After The December Hike, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 11 December 2017


The Choice of the New Fed Chair, by Nouriel Roubini, 30 October 2017


REVIEW: FED: Dovish Tightening, Hawkish Signals, 

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 20 September 2017


PREVIEW: FED: ‘Relatively Dovish’ Tightening Set To Continue, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 15 September 2017

European Central Bank

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Flash Preview: ECB On Hold As Downside Risks Modestly Fade, While Launching The Strategic Review, By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 20 January 2020


Flash Review: “Owl-ish” Lagarde Plays It Safe At First ECB Presser, by Brunello Rosa, 12 December 2019


ECB PREVIEW: All Attention Will Be On Lagarde’s First Press Conference, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 6 December 2019


ECB Review: Draghi Downplays Governing Council Infighting At Farewell Presser, by Brunello Rosa, 24 October 2019


ECB PREVIEW: Acknowledging Dissent During Draghi’s Farewell Council Meeting, by Brunello Rosa, 22 October 2019


ECB REVIEW: ECB Delivers A Low-Intensity, Open-Ended Easing Program, by Brunello Rosa, 12 September 2019


ECB PREVIEW: ECB’s Easing Package May Be Smaller Than Expected, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 6 September 2019


MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: ECB Prepares To Deliver Fresh Stimulus Package In September, by Brunello Rosa, 25 July 2019


ECB PREVIEW: Getting Ready To Deliver More Easing In September, by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and Francesca Panelli, 19 July 2019


Review: ECB Is Not As Dovish As The Market Expected, But Is Ready To Ease, by Brunello Rosa, 6 June 2019


ECB Preview: Don’t Expect Too Much Substance, But Still a Dovish Tone, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 3 June 2019


ECB Review: Assessing The Policy Stance, Ahead Of Further Possible Action, by Brunello Rosa, 10 April 2019


ECB Is Mulling Reserve Tiering, But It Has Not Made Up Its Mind Yet,  by Brunello Rosa, 8 April 2019


ECB PREVIEW: Policy on Hold. No Tiering Yet and TLTRO Details to Be Decided Over Time, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 8 April 2019


REVIEW: ECB Adds Monetary Accommodation, by Brunello Rosa, 7 March 2019


ECB PREVIEW: Change In Forward Guidance and New (T)LTRO Coming, Given Downside Risks, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 21 February 2019


Review: ECB Twists Risks To The Growth Outlook To The Downside by Brunello Rosa, 24 January 2019


ECB REVIEW: ECB Confirms Its Policy Stance (With Few Details on Reinvestment), by Brunello Rosa, 13 December 2018


ECB PREVIEW: We Do Not Expect A Radical Shift In Policy in December, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 30 November 2018 


ECB Review: Rendez-Vous in December for All Decisions

by Brunello Rosa, 25 October 2018 


PREVIEW: ECB Likely To Buy More Time Before Committing, by Brunello Rosa, 22 Octtober 2018


REVIEW: ECB Buys Time (Again) On Re-Investment Policy, by Brunello Rosa, 13 September 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Still Waiting For Re-Investment Policy Details,

by Brunello Rosa, 11 September 2018


REVIEW: ECB: Details On Reinvestment Policy to Come After the Summer Break, by Brunello Rosa, 26 July 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Focus On Re-Investment Policy, by Brunello Rosa, 20 July 2018


REVIEW: ECB Indicates End of QE and Beginning of Rates Guidance, by Brunello Rosa, 14 June 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Discussion on QE Extension to Begin in June, But No Rush to Decide, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 8 June 2018


ECB to Gradually Exit QE by Year-end, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 17 April 2018


REVIEW: ECB Drops Easing Bias, Amid Dovish Press Conference, 

by Brunello Rosa, 8 March 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Euro Strength vs Removing the Easing Bias, 

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 2 March 2018


REVIEW: ECB: Strong Euro at the Forefront of ECB’s Attention, 

by Brunello Rosa, 25 January 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Tacking Stock of the Strong Euro, by Brunello Rosa, 22 January 2018


PREVIEW: ECB: Nuances On Forward Guidance, by Brunello Rosa, 7 December 2017

 

REVIEW: ECB Cautiously Reduces The Pace Of QE, by Brunello Rosa, 26 October 2017

  

PREVIEW: ECB To Cautiously Reduce The Pace Of QE, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 16 October 2017


ECB REVIEW: Draghi Said More than Most People Think, by Brunello Rosa, 7 September 2017

 

ECB View Update: A Larger Stimulus Package For a More Severe Economic Slowdown, By Brunello Rosa, Nouriel Roubini and Francesca Panelli, 23 August 2019

Bank of England

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Bank of England Moving Closer To Cutting Rates, By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 16 January 2020


Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead, by Brunello Rosa, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani, 19 December 2019


UK Election, Brexit and BoE Update: Johnson’s Landslide Victory Opens The Gates To Brexit, By Brunello Rosa, 13 December 2019


Flash Review: MPC Splits But Remains On Hold, While Signalling Possible Cuts Ahead, By Brunello Rosa, 7 November 2019


BoE To Remain in Wait–And–See Mode Before The General Election, By Brunello Rosa, 1 November 2019


Flash Review: BOE Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged And Awaits Brexit Outcome, By Brunello Rosa, 1 August 2019


MACRO PICTURE: UK - Brexit and BoE Update: Brace For Political Turmoil In Coming Months, By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 12 July 2019


REVIEW: BOE Ends Up Delivering a Hawkish Hike, 

by Brunello Rosa, 2 August 2018


PREVIEW: BOE Finds A Window To Slot In a Rate Hike, 

by Brunello Rosa, 27 July 2018


BOE After June MPC and Mansion House Speech, 

by Brunello Rosa, 22 June 2018


REVIEW: BOE Stays on Hold and Remains Data Dependent, by Brunello Rosa, 10 May 2018


PREVIEW: BOE To Remain on Hold in May (And Even a Hike in August Is Not A Done Deal), by Brunello Rosa, 4 May 2018


TRAVEL NOTES: BoE Mulling Rate Hike Amid Brexit Uncertainties, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 20 April 2018


BoE Delivers Hawkish Inflation Report, by Brunello Rosa, 8 February 2018


PREVIEW: BOE: On Hold, But Alert, by Brunello Rosa, 2 February 2018


REVIEW: BoE Tightening: Unwillingly Dovish, by Brunello Rosa, 2 November 2017 


BOE to Reduce Accommodation Despite Rising Political Turmoil, by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 13 October 2017

Riksbank

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Flash Review: Riksbank Brings The Repo Rate Back To Zero, And Signals A Long Pause, by Brunello Rosa and Karmen Meneses, 19 December 2019


Flash Preview: Riksbank To Normalise Rates Before A Long Pause, by Brunello Rosa, 13 December 2019


Flash Review: The Riksbank Signals A Long Pause After The December “Probable” Hike, by Brunello Rosa , 24 October 2019


Preview: Riksbank Remains On Hold, While Keeping Its Hiking Bias, By Brunello Rosa, 21 October 2019


BOC, RBA and Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With A Dovish Bias, by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa, 30 August 2019


MONETARY AFFAIRS - Flash Review: Riksbank Remains Cautious And Leaves Outlook Unchanged, by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 3 July 2019


MONETARY AFFAIRS – Preview: Riksbank To Remain Prudently Dovish, By Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 28 June 2019


Flash Review: Ultra-Dovish Riksbank Lowers Its Repo Rate Path And Extends QE to End-2020, by Brunello Rosa, 25 April 2019


MONETARY AFFAIRS - Review: Riksbank Hikes its  Policy Rate by 25bps, by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 20 December 2018


PREVIEW: Riksbank Likely To Wait Longer Before Lift-Off, by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 14 December 2018


Riksbank Pushes Back The Timing of First Rate Hike,

by Brunello Rosa, 26 April 2018


Time to Push Back the Repo Rate Path, by Brunello Rosa, 23 April 2018


REVIEW: RIKSBANK: On Hold, With a Dovish Tilt, 

by Brunello Rosa, 14 February 2018


PREVIEW: RIKSBANK: On Hold, With a Dovish Bias,

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 12 February 2018


REVIEW: Riksbank Brings Forward Reinvestment Plans, by Brunello Rosa, 20 December 2017


Riksbank Hints At More Qe, by Brunello Rosa, 26 October 2017


How The Market Is Mis-Reading The Riksbank, 

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 19 October 2017

Bank of Canada

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Flash Preview: As The Economy Stabilises, Bank of Canada Remains on Hold, By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani, 17 January 2020


Flash Review: Bank of Canada Remains On Hold, With No Particular Bias, by Brunello Rosa, 4 December 2019


Flash Preview: BoC To Remain On Hold, With Some Risk of Easing, by Brunello Rosa, 29 November 2019


Flash Review: BoC Remains On Hold, But With A Clear Easing Bias, by Brunello Rosa, 30 October 2019 


Resilient Economy And Expected Easier Fiscal Stance Give BoC Time To Weigh Its Options, By Brunello Rosa and Joseph Shupac, 25 October 2019


BOC, RBA and Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With A Dovish Bias, by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa, 30 August 2019


Flash Review: Bank of Canada Now On Hold, Ready To Go Either Way, by Brunello Rosa, 10 July 2019


BoC Preview: Balancing Global Headwinds with Domestic Resilience, by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa, 5 July 2019


Review: Bank Of Canada Removes  Its Tightening Bias, by Brunello Rosa, 24 April 2019 


Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold, For Now, by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 19 April 2019


REVIEW: Dovish BOC Signals A Long Pause, by Brunello Rosa, 6 March 2019


PREVIEW: BOC Likely To Pause For Longer, by Alex Waters, Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 4 March 2019


REVIEW: BOC Remains On Hold, With Hawkish Undertones, by Brunello Rosa, Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac, 9 January 2019


PREVIEW: BOC Likely To Remain on Hold, While Sounding Upbeat, by Alex Waters and Joseph Shupac, 7 January 2019


BOC Review: Trade Relief Ensures An Autumn Hike and Hawkish Tones, by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 24 October 2018 


REVIEW: BOC: Hike Now, and on a Half-Year Basis,

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 12 July 2018


PREVIEW: BOC Set to Raise Rates, But No Longer Certain to Signal Further Hikes, by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 6 July 2018


PREVIEW: Cautious BOC To Stay on Hold In April, 

by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 13 April 2018


PREVIEW: BOC: On Hold Given Negative Economic Surprises, by Joseph Shupac and Brunello Rosa, 6 March 2018

Bank of Japan

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Flash Review: BoJ Remains on Hold With An Easing Bias, While Revising Down Its Inflation Outlook, and Up Its Growth Outlook, By Brunello Rosa and Farah Aladsani, 21 January 2020


Flash Preview: Bank of Japan To Keep Its Cool And Let Fiscal Policy Do The Heavy-Lifting, By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 17 January 2020


Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead, by Brunello Rosa, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani, 19 December 2019


MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ PREVIEW - Bank of Japan to Stay on Hold, as Global Headwinds Are Lessened, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 16 December 2019


Review: BoJ Remains On Hold, But Changes Forward Guidance To Signal Increased Readiness To Ease Policy, by Brunello Rosa, 31 October 2019


Preview: BoJ Mulls Policy Stimulus In October, by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, 25 October 2019


Flash Review: BoJ On Hold, Getting Ready To Ease Policy In October, by Brunello Rosa, 19 September 2019


BOJ PREVIEW: Keeping the Powder (Mostly) Dry, by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli, 17 September 2019


Review: A Cautious BOJ Stays Put, But Signals Readiness To Ease If Economic Conditions Worsen, By Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli, 30 July 2019


BOJ Preview: Incremental Steps Before September’s Decisions, By Alex Waters, Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 26 July 2019


Review: The BoJ Re-Commits to Its Current Policy Framework by Updating Its Forward Guidance, by Alex Waters, 25 April 2019


Bank of Japan Preview: BoJ In Wait-And-See Mode as Global Headwinds May Fade, by Alex Waters and Nouriel Roubini, 19 APril 2019


REVIEW: BOJ Lowers Inflation Projections And Remains on Auto-Pilot, by Alex Waters, 23January 2019


BoJ PREVIEW: A Stronger Yen May Cause Some Discomfort, by Alex Waters, 17 January 2019


MONETARY AFFAIRS: BOJ Still Far From A Shift In Policy Regime, But The Triggers For A Change Are Now Clearer 

by Nouriel Roubini, 8 November 2018 


BOJ Policy Tweaks Fail To Impress Markets, 

by Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 21 August 2018


PREVIEW: BoJ Unlikely To Change Its Policy Regime Apart From Minor Tweaks, by Nouriel Roubini, 27 July 20

Norges Bank

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Photo: Esten Borgos (from Norges Bank’s website)

    

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold In January, While Keeping Its Modest Hiking Bias, By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini, 17 January 2020

 

Central Bank Reviews: BoJ, BoE and Norges Bank Stay On Hold In December And Signal Caution Ahead, by Brunello Rosa, Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi and Farah Aladsani, 19 December 2019


Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain on Pause In December, And For Some Time, by Brunello Rosa, 13 December 2019

  

Flash Review: Norges Bank Remains On Pause and Mildly Hawkish, by Brunello Rosa, 24 October 2019

   

Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Stay On Hold With No Hiking Bias, By Brunello Rosa, 18 October 2019


Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates Once More Before A Pause, by Brunello Rosa, 19 September 2019


Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Weigh Its Options In September, by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli, 13 September 2019


Flash Preview: Norges Bank To Remain On Hold, But Still Open To Future Hikes, by Brunello Rosa, 9 August 2019


Flash Review: Norges Bank Raises Rates and Hints At More Hikes in 2019, by Brunello Rosa, 20 June 2019


Preview: Norges Bank Set To Increase Rates In Spite Of Dovish Fed and ECB, By Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 14 June 2019


MONETARY AFFAIRS – Flash Review: Norges Bank Surprises Markets And Signals A Rate Hike In June, by Brunello Rosa, 9 May 2019


Review: Hawkish Norges Bank Raises Rates and Signals Another Hike Within Six Months, by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 21 March 2019


Preview: Norges Bank To Hike In March and Signal Another Hike in 2019, by Alex Waters, 15 MArch 2019


Norges Bank Preview: Waiting For March to Hike

by Alex Waters, 18 January 2019


Norges Bank Begins Its Well-Telegraphed Tightening Cycle, 

by Brunello Rosa, 20 September 2018

Swiss National Bank

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Flash Review: SNB On Hold, With An Easing Bias, by Brunello Rosa, 12 December 2019


SNB Likely To Hold Off, For Now, by Brunello Rosa, Farah Aladsani and Fawaz Al Mughrabi, 10 December 2019


Flash Review: SNB Reviews Negative Rates Regime And Moves Closer To An Easier Policy Stance, by Brunello Rosa, 19 September 2019


Flash Preview: SNB Getting Ready To Follow The ECB With Lower Rates, by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli, 13 September 2019


Flash Review: The SNB Introduces A New Policy Rate (and Claims To Have Space To Ease), by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 13 June 2019


MONETARY AFFAIRS - SNB: Rising Global and Domestic Risks To Fight With Little Policy Ammunition, by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 20 February 2019

RBA and RBNZ

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Flash Review: RBA Remains on Hold, With A Clear Easing Bias, by Brunello Rosa, 3 December 2019  


Flash Preview: RBA To Remain On Hold In December, While Remaining Dovish, by Brunello Rosa, 29 November 2019


Flash Review: RBNZ Remains On Hold, But Is Prepared to Ease More If Needed, by Brunello Rosa, 13 November 2019


Flash Preview: We Expect The RBNZ To Cut Rates in November, by Brunello Rosa, 8 November 2019 


Flash Review: RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Reiterates Its Forward Guidance And Is Prepared To Ease More, by Brunello Rosa, 5 November 2019


Flash Preview: RBA to Stay On Hold In November, by Brunello Rosa, 1 November 2019


Flash Review: RBA Cuts Rates And Signals Further Easing Ahead, by Brunello Rosa, 1 October 2019


Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again, by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli, 27 September 2019


BOC, RBA and Riksbank Preview: On Hold, With A Dovish Bias, by Francesca Panelli and Brunello Rosa, 30 August 2019


Flash Review: RBNZ Cuts Rates More Than Expected And Signals Further Easing, by Brunello Rosa, 7 August 2019


Flash Preview: RBNZ to Cut Rates in August, by Brunello Rosa and Francesca Panelli, 2 August 2019


Review: RBA Cuts Rates for a Second Month in a Row, With The Possibility Of More Easing Ahead, by Brunello Rosa and Alex Waters, 2 July 2019


Preview: RBA Ready To Cut Rates Again, by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 28 June 2019


Review: RBA Cuts Its Cash Rate Due to Uncertainty On The Global Outlook, By Alex Waters, 4 June 2019


Review: RBNZ Is The First G10 Central Bank to Cut Rates In This Cycle, by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 8 May 2019 


RBA Review: Cash Rate Held Steady, Labour Market Key to Rate Outlook, by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 7 May 2019


Flash Preview: RBNZ Seen Cutting Rates in May, by Brunello Rosa, 3 May 2019


RBA PREVIEW: A Rate Cut Is On The Table, by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 3 May 2019


Review: RBNZ Prepares For a Rate Cut (And Puts Pressure On RBA To Shift The Balance Of Risks To the Downside), by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 28 March 2019


RBA Jumps on The Dovish Bandwagon, While RBNZ Still Sits On The Fence, by Alex Waters, 19 February 2019 

Danish National Bank

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Reviewing DNB’s Reaction Function To Defend The Currency Peg, by Alex Waters and Brunello Rosa, 5 March 2019